Nationals: 3 early-season takes that look really stupid right now
Another series loss, this time at the hands to the lowly Miami Marlins. A Marlins team who is one of only three teams in the National League who have fewer wins than the Washington Nationals. Sitting with a record 54-72, the only thing to look forward to this season is what draft position the Nats will end up with.
There was a time (okay, before the first game of the season was played) when baseball life looked good in Washington. Fresh faces in the batting order. A clean bill of health for some pitchers. Even after a slow start and a plague of injuries, the Nationals put together a 19-9 month of June and sat just two games back of first place entering July.
The Nationals have won 14 games since.
Time to turn back the clock and shine the light on some takes we had at the beginning of the year, because there were a few outlandish predictions on our part. Hey, if you can’t laugh at yourself, who can you laugh at?
3 early season takes that look completely foolish now.
3. “Multiple Nationals pitchers will earn Cy Young votes.”
Backed by statistics, definitely. Wishful thinking, probably. Did we come close? Not even. The 2020 season was the first since 2011 a Nationals pitcher didn’t earn a Cy Young vote. We had high hopes the Nats weren’t going to make it back to back years without votes. We were wrong.
Max Scherzer will indeed get a vote or two, though it will be mainly because of how his numbers have been boosted since joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 8-4, 2.76 ERA, he put up with the Nationals isn’t bad, but his 4-0, 1.55 ERA, while wearing Dodger Blue is exceptional. He continues to pile up the strikeout numbers as well.
We knew health was going to be an issue, and Stephen Strasburg was unable to keep off the Injured List. He made just five starts all season. Patrick Corbin had an outside chance, though his 2021 has been horrendous. He currently leads the league in losses, earned runs allowed, and long balls given up.
Erick Fedde is your staff ace and his numbers will leave him off all Cy Young ballots, and rightfully so.
2. “Victor Robles will lead the team in stolen bases.”
All of the variables seemed to line up for Victor Robles to lead the team in stolen bases this year. Trea Turner was going to be moved to the three spot in the batting order, and with either Josh Bell or Kyle Schwarber hitting behind him, he wouldn’t run as much. Robles swiped 28 bags in 2019 and was going to slide into the leadoff position, ready to run. After a down year at the plate, he would have to rebound and get on base more, giving him plenty of stolen base opportunities.
Turner has been gone a month, though he will end up leading the team in stolen bases, and it won’t even be close. In fact, with his 21, he is the only player in double figures right now. Robles is second with 8. Base running has not been a strength for the Nationals this year, as evidenced by their 68% success rate in stealing. Robles, is not an exception. He’s been caught six times and has run during some questionable moments in games.
We assumed Robles was fast right? Not Trea Turner fast. Apparently, not Andrew Stevenson or Lane Thomas fast either.
Another issue is Robles’ ability to get on base. While he hasn’t walked much in his career, his free passes are up a little this year, though his base hits are down drastically. Robles is hitting .206. He’s just not getting on base, enough to steal. Big Stick Vic has fallen out of favor with Nationals fans, for that reason.
1. “The 84.5 wins is too low, and I predict they will go over.”
Fellow District on Deck writer, Max Rayman, and I predicted the o/u on the 84.5 wins Vegas set for the 2021 Washington Nationals team. Confidently, I picked the over. Begrudgingly, I acknowledge that mistake now. Were the Nationals ever on pace to win 85 games this year?
This prediction was derailed from game one of the season. COVID protocols led to a makeshift Opening Day roster (remember Cody Wilson? That’s how far the Nats reached to fill their roster). After winning the first game, the Nationals promptly lost the next five, being shut out in three of them. From that point, the uphill climb was on.
After reaching the surface at 12-12 in early May, losses in seven of eight games (to division rivals nonetheless) sent the Nationals reeling once again. An incredibly hot June (thanks to an incredibly hot Kyle Schwarber) sent the Nats above .500 and back within two games of the division lead. That’s where the latest descent began.
There were high hopes for this season, though maybe there shouldn’t have been. Age, injury, and inconsistency, all lead to an underachieving Nationals team and a fire sale at the trading deadline. Not only were we wrong on “over 84.5 wins”, we just wait to see by how many wins we blew this prediction by.