Washington Nationals: Juan Soto Deserves To Win NL MVP
By Max Rayman
Soto. Harper. The two Nationals legends go head to head for NL MVP.
Tonight the MLB MVP awards will be announced with Shohei Ohtani the likely winner in the AL. The NL race on the other hand is a coin toss between Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. Otherwise known as the old and new face of the franchise.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was also named a finalist and while he had an excellent season, he was nowhere near the others. Harper is seen by many as the slight favorite and the announcement that Phillies legend Mike Schmidt will be virtually presenting the award all but guarantees it.
Yet, that is a mistake. Below are the duos stats and Soto has the edge in multiple categories. (Soto is Player A and Harper is Player B).
BA HR RBIs OBP SLG OPS BB SO bWAR fWAR wRC+
A .313 29 95 .465 .534 .999 145 93 7.1 6.6 163
B .309 35 84 .429 .615 1.044 100 134 5.9 6.6 170
Yes, Harper had a slight edge in the power department, leading MLB in wRC+ (Soto was third), SLG, and OPS (Soto was third). Soto on the other hand thrived at getting on base, leading MLB in OBP (Harper was second) and walks. Despite being third in all of baseball in walks, Harper had 45 less than Soto.
Jayson Stark of The Athletic broke down the NL MVP race and had this to say about Soto’s ability to reach base.
"But here’s what makes that especially ridiculous. Soto’s OBP still started with a “3” as late as July 6 — which was 74 games into his season. So it was his second half where he really began making us historians pay attention.After the All-Star break, Soto came to the plate 322 times. Let’s break down those 322 trips for you:Reached base (via hit, walk, HBP): 169 timesForgot to reach base: 153 times"
That is just unheard of. It wasn’t just at the plate that Soto was able to hold his own over his ex-teammate. Defensively, Soto also has the edge.
He had five outfield assists, 3 DRS, a 2.2 UZR, and 4 outs above average (OOA). Harper on the other hand had 10 outfield assists, -6 DRS, a 1.9 UZR, and -6 OOA. While most are going to be primarily looking at the offensive numbers, Soto proved he was the better overall player.
It cannot be understated that Harper received virtually no help offensively. He posted a second-half OPS of 1.188 while the rest of his teammates posted a COMBINED .684 second-half OPS.
The Nationals waved the white flag at the trade deadline and came nowhere close to sniffing the playoffs, but that shouldn’t be held against him. Instead, it should be noted that Juan Soto thrived despite the team starting a rebuild and stripping down the roster. He had virtually no protection and still found ways to thrive.
The Nats only winning 65 games shouldn’t be a factor either. Multiple players over the years have won MVP despite their team having a losing record. Mike Trout and Cal Ripken Jr come to mind. Two of the three times Trout won AL MVP, the Angles had a losing record (2016, 2019). Ripken’s Orioles went 67-95 when he won his second award in 1991.
The main argument for Harper is that the Phillies played more meaningful games, having barely missed the playoffs. But that shouldn’t matter. Baseball is the hardest sport for a player to carry a team to the playoffs and it is virtually impossible. Despite Harper’s monstrous 60 second half, he was unable to lead them to the finish line.
It is hard to argue with Harper’s power numbers, but mix in the fact that Soto had a slight edge in plate discipline (walked more, struck out less) in addition to his absurd ability to reach base and Soto was the better overall hitter. Throw in his better defensive metrics and Soto stands out.