Washington Nationals: DoD Staff Discussing The Start To The 2022 Season

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Keibert Ruiz #20 of the Washington Nationals runs the bases against the New York Mets during game one of a doubleheader at Nationals Park on September 04, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Keibert Ruiz #20 of the Washington Nationals runs the bases against the New York Mets during game one of a doubleheader at Nationals Park on September 04, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
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With over a quarter of the MLB season in the books, the staff at District On Deck and Half Street High Heat got together to answer a few questions regarding Washington’s disappointing start to the year. Special thanks to Nick and Ryan for their help.

Is the Nationals’ 14-28 start to the season surprising?

Ryan: No not at all. On paper, before the season started there were arguably two teams worse than the Nationals and so far Washington has the second-worst record in the majors. Before the season I predicted the starting rotation would be historically bad and so far I have been proven right. They rank last in fWAR (0.2) and 29th in ERA (5.58) and FIP (5.08). I thought they were a 100+ loss team and through 42 games they’re on pace to exceed that.

Max: No. This marked the first full year of Washington’s rebuild and opted to roll with multiple veterans over younger pieces viewed as part of the team’s future. Their defense has been atrocious — tied for second to last in errors (29) and are 26th in DRS (-12). The offense is too inconsistent, relying on huge scoring outbursts to win and the starting rotation cannot be trusted to keep the team in close games.

Nick: Not at all. This team had so many holes to fill during the offseason and did next to nothing to fill them. Now with injuries starting to play a role, coupled with their refusal to call up certain top prospects who appear to be MLB ready, they are playing exactly as they should be.

MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 16: Yadiel Hernandez #29 of the Washington Nationals reacts after striking out against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on May 16, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 16: Yadiel Hernandez #29 of the Washington Nationals reacts after striking out against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on May 16, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Who has been the biggest surprise so far?

Ryan: It has to be Yadiel Hernández. A 34-year-old career minor leaguer, he entered the season with low expectations. I wanted some young guys to play over him, but the dude has proven he can consistently hit. On the season he’s slashing .321/.358/.473, with three homers, 20 RBIs, and an OPS of .832.  If he can keep this up, the Nats should be able to flip him for a decent return.

Max: Keibert Ruiz entered the season with immense expectations and has helped ease the pain of losing Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. The 23-year-old is slashing .288/.351/.390, with a homer, 12 RBIs, and an OPS of .741. Among qualified catchers (minimum 130 plate appearances), he’s first in batting average (.288), tied for second in fWAR (1.1), third in wRC+ (112), and OPS (.741), and has the lowest strikeout percentage (10.7%). A focal point of the Nats rebuild, it is great to see him have a strong start to his career.

Nick: It’s definitely Yadiel Hernández at this point. It’s insane to say, but think about where this team would be without him. He’s been so integral to the minimal success this team has had, that it’ll be interesting to see if he’s on the move at the deadline.

MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 18: Victor Arano #64 of the Washington Nationals delivers a pitch during the tenth inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on May 18, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 18: Victor Arano #64 of the Washington Nationals delivers a pitch during the tenth inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on May 18, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Thoughts on the bullpen’s surprising start to the year?

Ryan: This is my favorite misnomer about the 2022 Nats — the bullpen isn’t good. It’s good in relation to everything else on this team but their league ranks tell the story: 8th in HR/9, 17th in BB/9, 19th in K/9, 24th in ERA, 25th in WHIP, and 27th in hits allowed. There was a time when they were pitching well but it was not sustainable and with a major workload, the true bullpen has shown its form.

Max: Compared to last year, the bullpen has been a pleasant surprise, but that’s not saying much. Last year’s group finished in the bottom five of almost every category, so seeing the bullpen rank 11th in FIP (3.67) is a sight to see. Injuries have already started to pile up, with Sean Doolittle and Mason Thompson both on the 60-day IL. Victor Arano has emerged as a solid weapon for the bullpen, posting a 1.39 FIP and having yet to allow a homer across 17 innings. Something to keep an eye on is the usage of the bullpen. With the Nats rotation struggling to go deep into games, the bullpen has been leaned on heavily and this does not project to change.

Nick: The bullpen still isn’t good, but it is surprising that the best bullpen year we’ve had seemingly since 2012 comes in the first year we are officially not trying to contend.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 29: Luis Garcia #2 of the Washington Nationals runs during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 29, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies defeated the Nationals 10-5. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 29: Luis Garcia #2 of the Washington Nationals runs during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 29, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies defeated the Nationals 10-5. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

What is the biggest takeaway so far?

Ryan: This is going to be a long rebuild whether people want to acknowledge that or not. They don’t have many pieces around the infield, pitching depth is an issue and the rotation will take a long long time to fix. Lane Thomas has shown he’s a platoon at best so there’s a hole in LF and Robles has been unable to prove he belongs in center. García is the only close in-house option for SS/2B, leaving a spot in the other middle infield position.  I can keep going, but basically, RF and C are all that’s certain currently. It’s going to be a painful 5+ years.

Max: The starting rotation is by far the Nats biggest weakness. Josiah Gray still needs to work on keeping the ball in the park, but has proven he is the real deal. Erick Fedde leads the team in ERA, but has been unable to fully turn a corner.  Behind them has been nothing but problems. Joan Adon has shown promise but may need to go back to AAA for more seasoning. Patrick Corbin has been doomed by bad defense and needs to be paired with Riley Adams if he is to have any success. Aaron Sanchez was solid in yesterday’s start, but besides that has been a disappointment (7.16 ERA).

Nick: This is going to be a long rebuild. This isn’t a 19-31 story. This is going to be the state of the Nats until a bonafide star emerges next to Juan Soto and the supporting cast perform to a level that the floor of this team raises significantly. They declined to make any significant signings for a building block in the offseason, which leads me to believe they are trying to replicate their Strasburg-Harper-Rendon strategy of tanking and letting the top draft picks save them, which takes time.

Josh Bell #19 of the Washington Nationals hits a home run in the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 20, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Josh Bell #19 of the Washington Nationals hits a home run in the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 20, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

What is one move the Nationals should make?

Ryan: Only one move? Get rid of Alcides Escobar and Dee Strange Gordon for starters. That’s two but Escobar is obvious. This team isn’t going anywhere and you need to get Luis García up and see what he can provide. He isn’t going to hit like he is in minors (they use juiced balls) but you need to see what you have in a potential SS or 2B who is only 22.

Max: It’s hard to pick only one move with how bad their situation is, but Washington needs to protect the trade value of veterans Yadiel Hernández, César Hernández, Maikel Franco, and Josh Bell. The quartet has been putting up solid offensive numbers and could all help bolster the Nats farm system. Those four could all help a contender be it in a starting spot or coming off the bench. Making sure they don’t lose steam is a priority.

Nick: Extend Josh Bell. I mentioned the need for a bonafide star, and Josh Bell is a quiet star. He’s performing like a top 3 first baseman and is still in his prime. He won’t bankrupt the team and he won’t be blocking anyone in the minors. To me, it’s a no-brainer.

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