The wild roller coaster ride that has been the Juan Soto contract negotiations seems to be nearing its end.
Once home to a plethora of superstars, D.C., has seen Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Max Scherzer all leave for greener pastures either by trade or in free agency over the last five years. Gone are the days of competing on a nightly basis with the team’s eyes set on a deep playoff run — instead in the beginning of what looks like a long rebuild.
Yet, with Juan Soto on the roster, the pain of the team losing almost every night had become tolerable. Arguably the best hitter in baseball and must-watch T.V. — Juan Soto has overcome his early slump and is once again putting up otherworldly numbers. He’s slashing .247/.405/.490, with 19 homers, 42 RBIs, and an OPS of .895.
Locking up Soto has been the Lerner’s and Mike Rizzo’s main priority — with the Nats making multiple offers. Soto has turned them all down — with the most recent being 15 years worth a whopping $440 million — which would have been the largest contract in MLB history. At first glance, it seems that Soto is pushing his luck, but a deeper glance backs his decision.
Despite the monstrous offer, the deal is only worth $29.3 mill a year, which would have made him the 20th highest paid player per AAV.
The Nationals offered Juan Soto less money per year than Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Mike Trout, Carlos Correa, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Miguel Cabrera, David Price, Mookie Betts and Manny Machado
— Evan Roberts (@EvanRobertsWFAN) July 16, 2022
While the offer didn’t contain any deferrals, it was extremely backloaded — lowering the total cost of the deal. Plus with the Lerner’s in the process of selling the team, Soto needs to know the new owners are determined to return to contention as soon as possible.
To make matters worse, it was reported at the same time that the Nats were open to listening to offers for Juan Soto. But before that happens, they are intent on making one final offer.
SOURCE: The Nationals plan to make a better offer to Juan Soto, which will be their last. If Soto does not accept, he will be traded. https://t.co/PCON9u94If
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) July 17, 2022
The question arises, what does the AAV need to be to keep Soto in D.C. for the rest of his career? Would $450 million over 12 years which comes out to an AAV of $37.5 million — good for the third largest contract per year and the highest amongst position players work? Or does the AAV have to be at least over 40 million? If so, what about $445 million over 11 years — good for the second-largest contract per year?
With Scott Boras in Soto’s ear, he may be looking for his client to break the AAV record. An offer of $450 million over 10 years ($45 million AAV) would achieve that — breaking Max Scherzer’s current record of $43.3 million. This deal would make Soto the highest-paid player in MLB history in both total contract and AAV.
For fans that believe no athlete deserves this type of money, Soto is a generational talent who was instrumental in the franchise winning their first ever World Series title. After losing the majority of its stars, the franchise needs to reward both its star and fanbase for their respective loyalty.
And if the Nats do make an offer similar to the one I proposed and Soto still turns it down, then they should rightly trade him. Washington’s farm system is still one of the worst in the league — but trading their star would instantly change that.
Front offices are already having the conversations: What is it going to take to acquire Juan Soto in the wake of him turning down a 15-year, $440 million contract offer from the Nationals? And the answer is: The biggest trade package ever. “A Herschel Walker deal,” one GM said.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 16, 2022
Every team has an algorithm that assigns a dollar value to a player. These numbers from @BaseballValues are one example of those. Cannot imagine the Dodgers would do a deal like this. But it gives you a sense of just how much talent the Nationals would look to reap for Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/53GknQWV4b
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 16, 2022
Something to keep an eye on is the last part of Héctor Gómez’s tweet: “If Soto does not accept, he will be traded.”
Washington wouldn’t have to trade him at this year’s deadline and has over two and a half years to make a deal if negotiations don’t work out. As of now, the Nats may not be able to receive a return equal to Soto’s value and would benefit from waiting till at least the off-season to make a move.