Washington Nationals: DoD’s Staffs Thoughts On Juan Soto Extension Talks
The staff at District on Deck and Half Street High Heat got together to answer a few questions regarding the recent Juan Soto extension news.
Special thanks to Nationals Source, Ryan, and Nick for their help.
Thoughts on the Nationals 15 year, $440 million offer ($29.3 million AAV)?
Max: This offer would have been the largest in MLB history and proves the Washington Nationals are set on locking up their star. No deferrals are excellent, but the AAV was too low and the contract was reportedly backloaded.
Ryan: Right off the bat when you see this offer it appears great with a record-breaking $440 million offer. But, when you start to see the details of the offer, it loses its appeal. 15 years is a downside for a player to sign with a franchise that has this much uncertainty attached to it (new ownership, bad farm, long rebuild ahead) and the deal was heavily back-loaded which changes the value of the deal. Lastly, a $29 mill AAV is not going to cut it to get Soto to sign (Patrik Corbin’s AAV is $29.5 mill his last two seasons on the Nats).
Nick: It is definitely one of the better offers we’ve seen the Lerner’s make, but it isn’t necessarily competitive. I know it sounds crazy when it’s over $400 million, but the AAV of $29.3 wouldn’t even rank top 20 in the league. You’d probably need to get close to $40 million AAV to sign Soto in general, but you could knock off a few million on the AAV in exchange for length of the deal, which it seems the Nats tried to do here. It was just too much off the AAV. I think an AAV of $35/36 million would do it.
Nationals Source: There are holes in this offer but that 440 number is massive. It provides a lot of security and is the 3rd largest financial commitment in all of sports. You would think they are close on the total and this would prompt some actual negotiations but reports say there was no counter.
Thoughts on Juan Soto Turning it down?
Max: At first glance, it’s hard to fathom anyone turning down this type of money — and then you take a deeper look. This deal would have made him only the 20th highest paid player peer average annual value (AAV) — with Miguel Cabrera, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Stephen Strasburg all making more than him. Obviously, Soto is better than those four and should be paid as such. While the offer has zero deferrals, it is extremely backloaded –making the total cost go down.
But the biggest factor should be that the Lerner’s are in the process of selling the team. Why would Soto agree to stay in D.C. long-term if he has no idea who will be leading the organization and what those people’s plans are?
Ryan: He wasmart too. Signing right now without knowing who the new ownership is would be dumb. He needs to see their commitment to winning, no one is signing their career away knowing that their entire prime will be with losing teams
Nick: t’s no surprise. Boras likes his clients to go to free agency and Soto himself has said he’s basically going to free agency. He was also annoyed this came out in public, so that tells you the Lerner’s leaked it so Soto would appear greedy. It’s unfortunate.
Nationals Source: I’m not surprised he turned it down… I am however slightly surprised that there was no counter. For a guy who constantly says I want to be here, you would think that 440 million would prompt some sort of two-way conversation.
Where should the Nats go from here? Trade him or continue to negotiate?
Max: After letting Bryce Harper walk and trading away Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, the Washington Nationals owe it to the fans to make one more offer with a better AAV. If he turns it down then they need to focus on the long-term future of the club and find him a new home
Ryan: This is a tough one for fans but the Nationals really need to trade him. This team is facing, in all reality, a 5+ year rebuild to be consistently contending again. Your farm system isn’t good so how do you give it life? Trade Soto. Trading Juan would be franchise-altering. You’re looking at a team’s 4 top prospects and 2 players who are young mlbers. Your expected rebuild time is cut in half; this is a no-brainer.
Nick: I see it from both sides, but I think you can and probably should try to trade him now. The return on a Juan Soto deal would be otherworldly and this team has so many holes without obvious candidates to fill them. I’m not opposed to trying to sign him still, but I do think it makes more sense to trade him.
Nationals Source: I would make a best and final offer and if he continues to deny with no negotiating on their side then you must trade. I would expect the trade to come this winter if this happens.
It was reported that the Washington Nationals are planning on making one more offer, what contract do you think gets a deal done?
Max: This is what I wrote earlier in the week on the topic.
“The question arises, what does the AAV need to be to keep Soto in D.C. for the rest of his career? Would $450 million over 12 years which comes out to an AAV of $37.5 million — good for the third largest contract per year and the highest amongst position players work? Or does the AAV have to be at least over 40 million? If so, what about $445 million over 11 years — good for the second-largest contract per year? With Scott Boras in Soto’s ear, he may be looking for his client to break the AAV record. An offer of $450 million over 10 years ($45 million AAV) would achieve that — breaking Max Scherzer’s current record of $43.3 million. This deal would make Soto the highest-paid player in MLB history in both total contract and AAV.”
Ryan: Soto isn’t signing until he sees who his new boss is once this team is sold. $440 million over 12 years is what I would offer and I think would get it done with new ownership. That’s a $36.6 million AAV – which breaks Mike Trout’s record AAV for position players, hits the record contract amount and only Max Scherzer would have a higher AAV than him.
Nick: If you’re using the last reported offer as a starting point, I think the AAV needs to get close to $35 million. I’ll say 15 years, $500 million gets it done. That’s an AAV of $33.3 million, but would obviously be a record for a baseball contract.
Nationals Source: $440 million/12 should get it done but I don’t know if there is an actual number that gets it done.
If they do trade Soto, which team do you want to see him go to based on the return coming back?
Max: Due to the rising arbitration numbers and the prospects and young MLB talent it would cost to acquire him, only a few teams can make such a move (Cubs, Red Sox, Padres, Mariners, Mets, Yankees). Due to Seattle feeling the pressure to finally make the playoffs and having a stacked farm, the Washington Nationals should start with them.
Ryan: As mentioned above, trading Soto is going to take a King’s Ransom that only a select number of teams can afford. Dodgers, Mariners, Padres, Brewers, Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets can all trade for him (dodgers can and not even miss a beat in that deep farm). Dodgers, Mariners, Yankees, and Padres would be how I would rank them in order of where I wanna see Soto go based on potential returns.
Nick: There are only a few teams that could afford to make a Soto package AND sign him to the deal he wants. The Yankees stick out the most since they have 5 top 100 prospects. If he’s traded, don’t worry about what team he goes to, just get the best return possible.
Nationals Source: Seattle, San Diego, and The Yankees are the teams I am focusing on. All three are close and have the farms to do it. For San Diego and Seattle, you have two front offices that love to trade and that may be on the hot seat if their teams don’t get it done soon. They may view this as a great final shot.