Washington Nationals: What The Luis Castillo Trade Means For Juan Soto

The Seattle Mariners just paid a king’s ransom for Luis Castillo and in the process bumped the asking price for the Washington Nationals’ superstar Juan Soto.

For Washington Nationals fans that want Juan Soto to stay in D.C., they may be getting their wish — compliments of Jerry Dipoto and the Seattle Mariners. Last night, the Mariners pulled the trigger and traded for Luis Castillo, the top available starting pitcher on the trade block — beating out the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers among others.

So what does this trade have to do with Juan Soto and the Washington Nationals? Everything. Feeling the pressure of not making the playoffs since 2001 and in the perfect position to finally break the streak, Seattle gave up three of their top five prospects — a high price. Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, and Levi Stoudt were the Mariner’s first, third, and fifth-ranked prospects with Marte and Arroyo ranked the 18th and 93rd prospects in MLB per MLB Pipeline. Rounding out the trade is Andrew Moore.

If Castillo was able to land three of Seattle’s top prospects, then what is Juan Soto worth? Yesterday ESPN’s Jeff Passan went on Dan Patrick’s show to discuss the Juan Soto trade market with Passan dropping an interesting nugget. He claimed that there is an 80% chance Soto is traded by the deadline, with the only reason he stays put being Washington’s asking price.

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If the casing price was that high a few days ago, then what is it now that the dust has settled on the Mariners/Reds blockbuster? Castillo is an elite pitcher, going from one of the hitter-friendly parks to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks. But he is already 29 and only has one year left on his deal after this. Whereas Soto has already established himself as one of the best hitters in the majors, is only 23, and has two more seasons of arbitration.

If teams aren’t willing to meet the Nationals asking price for Soto, then so be it. This gives whoever buys the team from the Lerner’s in the off-season the opportunity to meet with the star and discuss an extension. In no way does Washington have to trade Soto before this year’s deadline. Yes, his value will never be higher, but they would still be able to land multiple top prospects if they table trade talks till the winter.