The Washington Nationals, powered by the second-worst ERA and defense in Major League Baseball in 2025, need an overhaul of the roster if new head honcho Paul Toboni intends to run a watchable product onto the field for 2026. Here's three names in particular that either need to go, or need to demonstrate serious changes if they're going to stick around.
Mitchell Parker
Mitchell Parker emerged in 2024 as a major surprise, debuting in the big leagues after just four appearances at Triple-A Rochester before going seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in just his second start at the MLB level. Things looked good from there--minus a July 13 disaster where he was unable to escape the first inning, Parker managed a 4.01 ERA in just over 150 innings as a 24-year-old. Things picked up to start 2025, too. Parker went ballistic through the first month of the season, recording five straight quality starts capped off by an eight-inning, one-hit gem against the Orioles on April 22.
Parker quickly entered a tailspin from there. In the remaining 25 starts he made, Parker had zero scoreless outings, posting a 7.00 ERA in 126 innings and striking out fewer than 6 batters per 9 innings--the second lowest strikeout rate and highest ERA among all qualified pitchers in that span. Parker's 50.0% hard hit rate against ranked in the 1st percentile of all pitchers, as did his .308 expected batting average against and 92.3 MPH average exit velocity. To put this into perspective, if a National League hitter had recorded Parker's expected .308 batting average against over the full 2025 season, he would have won the National League batting title.
Maybe there's an adjustment to be made. Parker pitched from closer to a three-quarters arm slot (52°), per Baseball Savant, in 2024, before going significantly further over the top (61°) in 2025. Among lefties, Parker's arm angle was the second-highest in MLB last year, behind only Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia. Perhaps there's something to be learned from standout Kansas City Royals rookie Noah Cameron, who posted a 2.99 ERA in just under 140 innings as a lefty just two months older than Parker in 2025.
Cameron's underlying numbers aren't mind-boggling, but they suggest a pitcher much closer to league-average than Parker. Similar profiles, similar four-seam fastball velocity, but Cameron's producing at least average whiff and xERA numbers. Cameron, most strikingly, features two predominant fastballs, with a cutter to play off his four-seam, where Parker throws a very middling four-seam fastball 55% of the time. To me, Parker's best chance at success going forward entails dropping the arm slot, slashing the four-seam fastball usage, adding either a sinker or cutter, and tacking on an additional breaking pitch while trying to add more spin--and, in turn, vertical drop--back to the curveball. It just might be that those adjustments need to happen in the minor leagues, because Parker's got a lot to prove to earn a spot on the major league roster in 2026.
Jake Irvin
After establishing himself as a hopeful back-end rotation presence going forward in 2024, it was a truly disastrous campaign for Jake Irvin in 2025. Among the 82 MLB starters with at least 140 innings thrown this year, Irvin's numbers were some of the worst:
- 5.70 ERA (81st)
- 5.64 FIP (82nd)
- 6.20 K/9 (77th)
- -0.4 fWAR (82nd)
Irvin's entire pitch arsenal lost over a mile and a half per hour of velocity across the board from 2024 to 2025, as his fastball and curveball plummeted from average to the 6th- and 14th-least valuable pitches in the major leagues out of 510 qualified pitches. Irvin features excellent extension from a sidearm delivery, but after a full season as potentially the worst full-time starter in MLB with his velo falling completely off the table, there's not much that can be said. I'm not great with analyzing mechanics, and I certainly don't know if it's a biomechanical issue. Maybe this is something a trip to Driveline in the offseason could help with. Either way, Irvin doesn't really warrant a spot on the Opening Day roster come 2026 in his current state.
Trevor Williams
I say this knowing that Trevor Williams' most recent appearance was at the start of July, in which he exited after 3 innings, allowing 7 runs on 9 hits to the Tigers, before discovering a partial tear in his UCL which required season-ending surgery. But Williams is going to be back in 2026, and he'd almost certainly be better off making his return with a different team. This isn't so much about his rate-based numbers--Williams was running a home run rate about league average and his low strikeout rate was made a little easier to swallow by his strong walk rate. Trevor's velocity on his entire arsenal dipped more than a full mile per hour between 2024 and '25, though, and while on some teams his numbers might warrant a position as a back-end starter, the reality is that Williams serves no role on the floundering Nationals.
The Nats need guys who are going to eat innings; over the last two years, Williams has thrown fewer than 150 combined innings across 30 starts, and is averaging less than 5 innings per start. He's completed six innings in just three of those 30 starts, and never once threw a pitch in the 7th inning. Again, for a somewhat more competitive team with a decent bullpen in need of a back-of-the-rotation arm, Williams might serve a purpose; for the Nationals, who are simply trying to tread water until they can discover a new identity, handing the ball over to the bullpen is a sobering prospect, and rostering an arm who is never going to give you the chance to go deep into a game ultimately has no purpose.
Do you agree or disagree with these picks? Is there anyone you think the Nationals can't afford to roster as we grind through a long, arduous offseason? Let me know on Twitter @TheOttSpot.