In March of 2009, Mike Rizzo was named interim G.M. of the Washington Nationals and later that summer was promoted to the position full-time. Just over 16 years later, Rizzo was relieved of his duties in the nation's capital. Highlighted by a World Series victory in 2019, there are many memories in Rizzo's tenure that Nats fans will remember forever.
Since the memorable season six years ago, the Nats have fallen to the gutter of the Major Leagues. How does a franchise that won at least 80 games for nine straight seasons struggle to win 71 games? That's a multi-layered question, but the Nationals' failure to convert on first-round draft picks in the MLB Draft is one of the main reasons the franchise is in its current state. Let's take a look at some of Mike Rizzo's home run first-rounders and some of his first-round blunders.
Good Draft Picks
We'll start on a positive note with the first-round picks that have worked in Rizzo's favor. His tenure began in 2009, so we'll start with the MLB Draft from June of '09, where the Nationals' franchise was forever changed.
Stephen Strasburg - 1st overall in 2009
Drew Storen - 10th overall in 2009
Bryce Harper - 1st overall in 2010
Anthony Rendon - 6th overall in 2011
Lucas Giolito - 16th overall in 2012
Strasburg and Harper were layup picks, as they had been dubbed as generational talents, and Rizzo really had no choice but to select either of them. Storen was useful out of the bullpen, but typically you wouldn't want to spend a Top 10 pick on a reliever. Rendon was a great pick who fell due to injuries, and Giolito was later flipped in the Adam Eaton deal.
Poor Draft Picks
Some of the names on this list bring back painful memories of being a Nats fan. Each first-round selection in the MLB Draft has a slight chance of being an impactful player at the Major League Level. But, when you're the Washington Nationals, those odds seem a lot lower. Since 2009, Mike Rizzo has missed on a lot of draft picks. Here are his first-round blunders.
Alex Meyer- 23rd overall in 2011
Brian Goodwin - 34th overall in 2011
Erick Fedde - 18th overall in 2014
Carter Kieboom - 28th overall in 2016
Dane Dunning - 34th overall in 2016
Seth Romero - 25th overall in 2017
Mason Denaburg - 27th overall in 2018
Elijah Green - 5th overall in 2022
There are simply way too many failed draft picks on this list that ultimately costed Rizzo his job. If these players had panned out, they would have been able to successfully help lead the Nationals in their next era of competitive baseball after most of the World Series team was gone. Guys like Kieboom, Romero, and Denaburg should be some of the faces of the franchise right now, but they barely made any sort of positive impact at the higher levels, if not at all, such as the case of Denaburg.
Wait and See Category
The players in this category haven't gotten a chance to prove they belong in either of the previous categories. They were either drafted in the last few years or have been out due to injuries. The clock is ticking with a few of these prospects.
Jackson Rutledge - 17th overall in 2019
Cade Cavalli - 22nd overall in 2020
Brady House - 11th overall in 2021
Dylan Crews - 2nd overall in 2023
Seaver King - 10th overall in 2024
Rutledge is a failed starter who has shown occassional flashes of usefulness as a reliever. Cavalli should be back in the big leagues this season, but has not shown that he can be durable enough to handle the workload of a big league pitcher. House and Crews are potential building blocks at the big league level, and are unproven at this point. King was notably taken ahead of guys like Cam Smith and Braden Montgomery, both of whom are making Nationals fans everywhere wonder what could have been.
Mike Rizzo has made 18 first-round selections in the MLB Draft as GM of the Washington Nationals. In those 18 picks, just five made it in the "Good Draft Pick" category. Since the 2012 MLB Draft, one player drafted in the first round has contributed over a season's worth of service time at the Major League level. Can you guess which player is the one? None other than World Series champion Erick Fedde. The 2014 first-round pick pitched in D.C. for six seasons before departing the Major Leagues for the Korean Baseball League. Fedde somehow resurrected his career in the KBO and has been a productive pitcher since returning to the MLB. Fedde threw a complete game shutout in Nationals Park with eight strikeouts earlier this season, because that's how baseball works.
Not one position player drafted since 2012 has played a full season in the Major Leagues with the Nats. Here are the highest games played by first-round picks since 2012: Brian Goodwin (144), Carter Keiboom (133), Dylan Crews (76 games), Brady House (18 games). Besides Erick Fedde, Jackson Rutledge is first in appearances with the Nats among first-round picks since 2012. Here are the totals of appearances in the big leagues with the club: Rutledge (36), Lucas Giolito (6), Seth Romero (3), Cade Cavalli (1).
The lack of games played for the Nats by first-round draft picks for the Nationals at the Major League level since 2012 is disturbing. The low rate of success in the MLB Draft was overlooked while the Major League team won games, but it eventually caught up to Mike Rizzo and cost him his job. While relying on free agent signings helped the Nats navigate the 2010s, the lack of scouting resources has cost the franchise hundreds of losses since winning the World Series title in 2019.
The Washington Nationals must reinvent themselves as an analytics-driven franchise that makes informed decisions about players. The new G.M. cannot rely on previous ways of scouting like Rizzo did. The Nation's capital should be a destination for baseball, not the laughing stock of the Major Leagues. Just as quickly as the Nationals franchise has crumbled, it can be rebuilt. New management must be forward-thinking and willing to adapt to new advancements in the sport. Complacency has become a problem within the Nationals organization.