What an incredible feeling today has brought to us Nats fans. After winning the lottery in 2023 only to not be allowed to keep the first overall pick, the Nationals had the ultimate "ball don't lie" moment, and won the MLB Draft lottery again just a year later. I wrote this morning about the possibility of the Nationals selecting Stillwater High School shortstop and son of 8-time MLB All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday, but he's not the only option that makes sense at #1.
In fact, there's a very legitimate possibility that the Nationals pivot away from Holliday and choose to go down the path that they've leaned towards over the past few years, and select Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette. While more players will certainly enter the conversation between now and Draft Day 2025, these are the most-likely selections.
Just to bring you up to speed in case you missed my piece this morning on Holliday, despite just a 10.20% chance of winning the lottery on Tuesday, the Nationals, represented by 2019 World Series Champion Matt Adams, took home the first pick. Adams coincidentally ran into Nationals' General Manager Mike Rizzo in the lobby at the Winter Meetings, where Rizzo asked Adams if he would be open to representing the Nationals at the draft lottery. Adams, who was in town to network in hopes of landing a coaching gig, ended up being the blessing in disguise that the organization didn't know they needed, 5 years after he hit 20 homers for the eventual World Series Champions. Long live Big City!
heh heh heh heh hehhhhh 😁 pic.twitter.com/E0Dgv3S5Oh
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) December 10, 2024
Over the past two drafts, we have seen the Nationals select a pair of college hitters, in outfielder Dylan Crews from LSU, and infielder Seaver King out of Wake Forest. The advantage of drafting a college player is that their development time needed in the minors is typically shorter, and they are viewed as being more polished and pro-ready upon being drafted. Crews is already a big leaguer, and King has a very real chance to fly through the minors if he can tap into his power stroke just a little bit due to his slick glove and defensive versatility.
Jace LaViolette, standing at 6'6" and 230 pounds, is an absolute physical specimen. He helped carry Texas A&M to a berth in the College World Series in 2024, with a .305/.449/.726 slash line, good for an absurd 1.175 OPS to go along with 29 homers and 78 RBIs. Similar to Holliday, he has a 60 overall prospect grade and 65 grade power tool, which are also accompanied by a 45 grade hit tool, 55 grade arm, and 50 grade glove. He absolutely looks the part of a powerful lefty slugger who will hold down a corner outfield spot for years to come, but there are certainly some weaknesses to his game as well.
He had a 24.25% strikeout rate in 2024, and definitely has some swing-and-miss to his game. His natural hitting instincts will certainly help to make things easier on him as he transitions to the professional level, but the fact that it's already a known weakness in his game makes me question whether or not the Nationals would be able to help him develop that aspect of his game. We have seen how much the organization has struggled to develop Elijah Green, who has had some insane swing-and-miss to his game so far in his pro career, and I'm not sure that LaViolette would get a lot better by spending time in the minors with our affiliates.
2025 is going to be a big determination in terms of where LaViolette ends up in the draft, as we could see a meteoric rise similar to that of Paul Skenes in 2023, who came out of nowhere after transferring to LSU from the Air Force Academy, and was so dominant that he went #1 overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates. We could see LaViolette take a major step forward this year as well, as the level of competition in the SEC is comparable to that of the lower levels of the minor leagues. If LaViolette is able to cut down on the strikeouts while putting up similar numbers to the ones he posted in 2024, the Nationals are going to have a very tough decision on their hands come next summer.
Who’s the pick?
— District on Deck (@DistrictOnDeck) December 10, 2024
Be sure to vote on X for the poll above to see which direction Nationals fans are leaning for the #1 overall pick in 2025 MLB Draft as of now! To vote, simply click the option above to be routed directly over to X, where you can make your selection.
Do you want the Nationals to select Jace LaViolette at #1 in 2025? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.