After the signing of the most coveted international free agent of the offseason made headlines this past week as Japanese righty Roki Sasaki chose to sign with the biggest villain in professional sports, the Los Angeles Dodgers, he immediately became the betting favorite for the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year Award.
With the Washington Nationals set to have their prized prospect and 2023 2nd overall pick Dylan Crews start in the big leagues in 2025, what are the chances that he can upset Sasaki and win the coveted award?
Before the signing of Sasaki became official, Crews, the #1 prospect in baseball, had been the favorite to win the award all offseason, but now he sits comfortably in 2nd place among all rookies in the National League. According to BetMGM, Sasaki now has +300 odds while Crews has +350 odds, meaning that a $100 bet on Sasaki would get you $300 and the same bet on Crews would get you $350.
While this is unsurprising, as the Dodgers have seemingly assembled the Avengers for next season in their search to repeat as World Series Champions, as we all know, anything can happen. Last year, fellow Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the betting favorite to win the award heading into the season, and a guy who didn't even start the season in the majors in Pirates' righty Paul Skenes ended up winning the award.
Skenes, the #1 overall pick in Crews' draft year and former teammate at LSU, was dominant after being brought up to the show, and ended up living to the hype and then some in his rookie campaign. Yamamoto had an injury-riddled first season, and quickly fell behind in odds once Skenes' consistent domination began.
Personally, I think that Crews can win the award, but there is no question that it will be an uphill battle. Given that he struggled at times during his first taste of big league ball towards the end of 2024, Crews will have to prove that he is ready for the difference in competition and can truly be a key cog for the Nationals in 2025. Given that the Nationals will not be playing in as many nationally televised games and of course are in a much smaller market with lower expectations than the Dodgers, Crews will really have to stand out to capture the attention of the national media.
FanGraphs projects Crews to have a .246/.306/.401 slash line, good for a .707 OPS with 16 homers, and account for 1.4 fWAR, which are certainly solid numbers, but might not be enough to unseat Sasaki. Chances are, if Sasaki has solid numbers in 2025, say an ERA in the 3's and upwards of 10 wins, he will likely bring home the award, so Crews will have to outperform his projections if he has any chance of winning it in 2025.
Of course, if Crews were to win, it would have big-time draft implications as well, as the team can secure a high draft pick right after the 1st round, which the team could certainly use to add to their #1 overall pick this year. The Nationals still need to continue to stockpile as much high-end prospect talent as possible, especially if the team has no intention on shelling out big money to top free agents. Overall, my confidence in Crews is unwavering, and he is my pick to win NL Rookie of the Year in 2025.