Washington Nationals pitchers are averaging 5 earned runs per 9 innings in 2025. That's fifth-worst in baseball, and while their FIP of 4.09 is nearly a full run lower than their ERA (and the team runs the third-highest BABIP in the Majors, reminding us all that the Nationals are one of the bleaker defensive teams in the league), the Nationals' long-term pitching staff is riddled with question marks.
The organization's front office could have chosen to go in on the variety of 2s, 3s, or 4s out on the open market to at least provide some depth to a promising rotation, but instead offered to re-sign Trevor Williams while adding Michael Soroka (an addition I liked, and still do) and Shinnosuke Ogasawara (an addition I felt less favorably towards, and still do). Kyle Finnegan also returned on a discount along with the adds of Jorge López, Lucas Sims, and Colin Poche, only the former of which is still donning a curly W on his hat. (Update: I wrote this Saturday afternoon, before López was also designated for assignment. They're now 0-for-3, so... we totally have a plan, right?)
Behind MacKenzie Gore, who on Friday became the first pitcher in MLB to reach 100 strikeouts this year, the rotation is rife with arms that look like 4s or 5s (3s if you're being generous) on strong teams. There's a number of guys that could have helped with that.
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta was always kind of just an average guy with Boston. He would run an ERA and FIP just a few ticks better than league average, post 2 FanGraphs WAR every year in a little over 140 innings, and go about his merry way. There was something under the hood, though, that limited his potential at Fenway Park--his historically low ground ball rates meant that a lot of balls in play were in the air, and the funky dimensions in Boston meant that a lot of balls in the air were going to go out where they wouldn't in other ballparks. As such, his home run to fly ball rate was consistently above league average, as indicated by his expected FIP being lower than his actual FIP in all of his final three seasons in Boston.
The Padres saw this, and signed him to a four-year, $55 million contract, likely with the expectation that he'd be a 3 or 4 in one of the Major Leagues' more solid starting rotations. Instead, he's blossomed, putting up similar strikeout rates to each of his last two seasons while his home run rate has been slashed in half in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. That contract looks like a steal for San Diego, though the opt outs after both 2026 and 2027 might mean they lose his services before they want to.
The dimensions for Nationals Park are relatively neutral compared to Petco and Fenway, and Nick Pivetta wasn't signed by the Padres until February as other pitchers came off the board. With Patrick Corbin coming off the books, a Pivetta addition would have made a ton of sense for the Nationals--add a conservatively-priced arm with a stable floor to anchor the rotation behind Gore trying to find his true breakout stuff, and if he outperforms expectations, reap the rewards. Instead, the NL West gets stronger.
Jack Flaherty
This one is a little less of an "I told you so." Flaherty signed a prove-it deal with the Tigers in 2024 and flashed stuff he hadn't shown in the Majors since 2019, earning a trade to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers at the deadline. The issue is that while he was with the Dodgers, he looked a lot more like 2023 Jack Flaherty than he did 2019. His presence on a taxed Dodgers pitching staff provided critical innings all Postseason long, but on the free agent market there's a pretty big gulf in price between good innings and just... innings.
Flaherty was predicted to command a three- or four-year deal in free agency worth anywhere from $60 to $90 million, but instead opted to rejoin the Tigers in Detroit behind reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on a one-year, $25 million deal with a $10 million player option for 2026 (that increases to $20 million if he makes 15 starts this year, a figure he's already rather close to).
It's hard to imagine Flaherty ending up with the Nationals on the deal he took with the Tigers; the Nationals have significantly more to prove before signing Flaherty-grade starters to one- or two-year deals, and given his start so far this year (which has been solid, but not exactly worth $80 million), it's hard to say definitively that a four-year contract for Flaherty to end up in the DMV would have been particularly worth it.
Walker Buehler
Buehler's value wasn't exactly high heading into 2025. Coming off a nearly two-year recovery period from elbow surgery, it had been quite a while since he had thrown innings nearly as effective as the ones that led him to a 4th-place Cy Young finish in 2021. Still, much like Flaherty, he was a rock for the Dodgers' gassed pitching staff in the Postseason, making three starts and closing out their World Series victory.
The fiery, passionate Buehler seemed like a surefire pick-up-and-flip project for Mike Rizzo's Nationals, who had already quietly telegraphed their intentions not to make any franchise-changing signings by the time Walker had put pen to paper in November. Another veteran presence might have been the excuse for skeptical fans; Buehler's intensity could light a fire under a team that's getting younger. Instead, it was the Red Sox inking him to a one-year, $21.05 million contract.
Buehler's been... fine. The velocity has declined following surgery and many of his pitches have lost their bite, although his slider is still very strong. He was never going to be the same pitcher he was, but it would have been a low-risk acquisition for the Nationals who seem content to continue their rebuild just one more year the same way one snoozes their alarm for just five more minutes. If he's good, you can flip him at the deadline; if not, well, it's not like you planned on investing the $20 million into improvements for the ballpark. Instead, for all intents and purposes, that money remains in the accounts of the Lerner family, and the Nationals remain nine figures below the first luxury tax threshold.
Danny Coulombe
No, his name doesn't jump out at you at first glance. Most relievers' names don't, in fact, but Danny Coulombe was one of Baltimore's best arms over the past two seasons, posting a 2.83 FIP both years (though he missed three months in 2024 with bone chips in his throwing elbow) and closing 2024 strong. At one point in 2023, Coulombe was Orioles manager Brandon Hyde's designated fireman. The team declined their $4 million club option on him for the 2025 season in a puzzling move, making him an unrestricted free agent.
The 35-year-old lefty Coulombe ended up with his former team, the Twins, on a one-year, $3 million contract in 2025. Surely, now, the Nationals could have opted to take a shot with Coulombe at a somewhat higher price (a consolation for having to pitch four out of six months of the season for a losing team)? Well, don't look now, but before hitting the injured list in mid-May with a muscle strain in his left forearm, Coulombe made 19 consecutive appearances to start the season without allowing a run, posting excellent peripherals at the same time. Eno Sarris' and Max Bay's Pitching+ model views his primary cutter as a fabulous offering.
Instead, the Nationals front office opted for Colin Poche as their free agent lefty, who had one definitively strong major league season under his belt in 2023, largely powered by excellent fly ball luck that promptly regressed to normal in 2024. Poche went on to record just 26 outs in 13 appearances in April, allowing 11 earned runs and walking twelve batters in that span before being placed on outright waivers and electing free agency at the start of May.
And that's just one of the many dedicated single-inning relievers that were on the market. You can check out the others at RosterResource and see a number of other names the Nationals realistically could have signed (even if the prospect of pitching for a middling club would have required a financial premium - again, nine figures under the first CBT threshold). For now, the Nationals are dropping off their final of three new bullpen additions in Jorge López and leaving only Andry Lara when it comes to relievers on the 40-man roster in the minor leagues (though Mason Thompson is actively on his rehab assignment from Tommy John surgery).
Let me know who you think was low-hanging fruit for the Nationals to pick up on Twitter @TheOttSpot or on Bluesky @theottspot.bsky.social. Happy Pride!