Some prospects are victims of mainstream hype far, far too early into their professional careers. That, perhaps, was the case with one Brady House, who was the Nationals' most prized prospect at a point in time where fans had very little else to look to down on the farm. As the minor league system repopulated with talent through the draft and the trade of Juan Soto, House gradually became an afterthought in the minds of some, reaching his "post-hype" phase before even taking a swing at Triple-A Rochester.
Now the team's third-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, House still sits firmly as a consensus top 100 farmhand league-wide, and the team's highest-ranked at Triple-A. 22 years old a month from today, House has been making plenty of noise down in Rochester. Running a wRC+ 33% better than the International League average, Brady's rebounded from growing pains in a 54-game sample at the level last year in a big way. His strikeout and walk rates have improved, the latter more dramatically, though neither is currently at a league-average mark. That hasn't stopped him from bringing the boom, though; his .342 xwOBA, short for expected weighted on-base average, places him in the 71st percentile among Triple-A hitters age 25 and younger according to Prospect Savant, a website that takes Statcast data received from Triple-A ballgames and frames it in a method similar to the charts one might find on a major league player's Baseball Savant page.
House is in a position where he just might force the organization's hand into promoting him to the Major League roster sooner rather than later. The Nationals certainly have options at third base; even with the delayed return of Paul DeJong as Bennett wrote about yesterday, both José Tena and Amed Rosario are actively seeing reps at the position, and Trey Lipscomb is assumed to be the third man on the depth chart if his April 20 start in Colorado is any indication. How the team measures whether a player is "ready" to see Major League action or not is nebulous at best, ultimately, but if anything close to this production continues, Brady might be ticketed for a flight to the nation's capital.
Checking in on the state of the Nationals defense
Being totally honest, things are bleak. Keibert Ruiz has lost the plot, frankly. Maybe it's because pitchers are getting fewer called strikes league-wide, but for the first time in his career, Ruiz is on pace to be below league average in stealing strikes from every part of the strike zone's shadow. He's already cost the team 3 runs on framing alone after finishing last season having dropped just 1.
The infield is as rough as ever. Nathaniel Lowe has graded out poorly at first base across both Defensive Runs Saved and Fielding Run Value. Paul DeJong was an unexpected godsend, but as God giveth, he taketh away. That leaves Amed Rosario, who has yet to rank above the 13th percentile in Outs Above Average in a full season in his entire career, and José Tena, who's looked better moving to his right at the hot corner, but it's only a matter of time before Mike Rizzo makes the call to send him back to Rochester because his process and production have both been firmly in the pot since the year began. CJ Abrams still isn't really a major league shortstop although he's looking to maybe not be a total liability out there, and whatever progress Luis García Jr. made last year seems to have been totally erased so far as he struggles moving to his right more than ever.
That leaves the outfield, and after Alex Call's miraculous 2023 center field run, he's never really returned to anything slightly resembling that kind of form. He's held up better in right field, but a brief stint in left was so disastrous that it cost the team 3 runs in just 4 starts. James Wood isn't faring much better, if at all, covering an above average amount of ground in the first 1.5 seconds after contact but significantly below average in the next second and a half, all while taking a relatively inefficient path to the ball to begin with that has handicapped his ability to make plays even with his strong wheels. If nothing else, Dylan Crews has displayed some chops for the right field position, while also earning his way into successful center field reps when Jacob Young, who's been as excellent as ever, takes a game off.
Ultimately, for a team that isn't really built to compete on either side of the ball, it's a little foolish to imply that the team's defense is the most pressing issue, but the fact of the matter is that the team that has hemorrhaged over 60 runs against the average on defense alone, according to FanGraphs, since the start of 2023 is going to have a hard time simply changing that when it's time to start playing meaningful baseball. Maybe it's coaching, maybe some roster turnover is in place. Maybe James Wood needs to be the full-time DH with a CJ Abrams move to left field and Nasim Nuñez gets a chance to prove his perceived value. Even if it's not quite that dramatic, something has to give, because this offense simply lacks the firepower to be letting the pitching down quite this badly.