Cade Cavalli was drafted by the Nationals with the 22nd pick in the 2020 MLB draft and rose through the farm system quickly. He made his first MLB start in 2022, yet here we are in 2025 and he has yet to make his second career start. Cavalli went on the IL in 2022 with right shoulder inflammation, but looked sharp in Spring Training in 2023. Unfortunately, Cavalli had to get Tommy John surgery and has been rehabbing since early 2024. After some setbacks and a lengthy illness, he is finally showing once again what made him such a heralded prospect.
Cavalli has had a great stretch in Triple-A Rochester over his last 4 starts, allowing just 4 runs across 18.2 innings with 26 strikeouts. His best performance came on May 28th where he threw 5 innings, striking out 10 and walking just one. He also retired 15 of the last 16 batters he faced.
Cavalli has certainly performed well enough to get called up, especially considering the poor performance of the back of the rotation, but the main concern is his pitch count. The most pitches he has thrown in a game this season is 78, which came in his most recent start on June 3rd. Nationals manager Davey Martinez said last week that the goal is to get Cavalli to 90 pitches before he returns to the majors, but it's unclear how long the team will wait to stretch him out.
Mark Zuckerman of MASN also suggested that the Nationals may want to keep Cavalli in Rochester until the point when he would not accrue enough service time to be eligible for arbitration in the offseason. Cavalli is currently at 2 years and 86 days service time, meaning he would need another 86 days of service to be eligible for arbitration. If he were called up right now, he would be eligible, so that may be another factor as to why the Nationals are refraining from calling him up.
As for the Nationals rotation, Cavalli would only strengthen it. Trevor Williams, who was inexplicably given another two-year contract this offseason, has been (predictably) awful. Mitchell Parker had a great start to his 2025 season, posting a 1.39 ERA through his first five starts. In his six starts since then, Parker has a 7.44 ERA and has been a total liability. Cavalli would be an instant upgrade over either Williams or Parker, but which one he would potentially replace is not easy to predict.
The most likely scenario would be moving Williams to the bullpen. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen for the Mets in 2022 and was effective, posting a 3.17 ERA in 122 across 40 appearances and 12 starts, and he would also be able to provide length in relief if necessary. Parker has shown that he can be an effective starter in the past, so it would be more worth it to let him stay in the rotation than it would be to keep Williams there.
Cavalli has proven that he is ready to make his return to Washington and it is only a matter of time before he does so. He will be an upgrade no matter who he replaces and will finally be able to showcase what made him a first round pick a few years ago. In a rotation that is devoid of electric stuff (other than MacKenzie Gore), it will be refreshing to see high velocity fastballs and sharp breaking balls instead of high-80s and low-90s meatballs from Williams and Parker.