Free agent outfielder once again tied to the Nationals in new prediction

It's been the million dollar question all offseason: will the Nationals be active in free agency this go-around? If they do, there's one name that's been ever-present in Nationals circles to be targeted: former Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander.

MLB Network analysts have been trickling out their free agency predictions all throughout the slow start of this offseason, and on Friday we bore witness to those of Robert Flores:

Anthony Santander to the Nats isn't a foreign concept. Earlier this month, Bennett wrote about Jon Morosi identifying Washington as a landing spot for the 30-year-old outfielder. Before that, it was Jim Bowden of The Athletic who named the Nats as a good fit for Santander. There are conflicting reports on the dollar amount Anthony's camp is seeking in free agency, ranging from under $100 million to north of $200 million. When we put out our free agency predictions earlier this month, most of us here at District on Deck had him going for around $110-$120 million.

That would be well within the Nationals' means, but a pressing question is deferrals--Ted Lerner, while he was still with us, and Mike Rizzo negotiated a lot of deferral-heavy contracts in the 2010s, from Max Scherzer's 7-year, $210 million contract where half was deferred to a seven-year period after its completion; to Stephen Strasburg, whose contract was not insured, and will continue to be paid all the way through 2028; to Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, whose contract offers were turned down in part due to their extreme deferrals--Harper wanted no deferrals, and the team was unwilling to budge on its offer of $300 million ($100 million deferred) over 10 years, so he went to the Phillies; while Soto's extension offer of $440 million over 15 years in 2022 is largely believed by baseball fans to have included deferred money, though never confirmed. Deferrals can be detractors in confidence for either side of the negotiation table; a player like Santander is likely to want his well-earned money in current value across a four- to six-year span. If Nats brass is unwilling to present him with an offer that doesn't include deferrals, whether that be to mitigate the CBT hit (a threshold the team is nowhere near) or to make it some future owner's problem (good luck selling the team with even more dead money on the books), it could put a wrench in the entire plan. Deferred money isn't always a bad thing--the Dodgers have been handing out deferred contracts like candy already this offseason--but players on shorter-term deals generally prefer to steer clear of it.

All that is assuming the Nationals plan on making him an offer to begin with, which we probably won't know for a while. The team hasn't been publicly tied to any marquee free agents, though speculation has run rampant around Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and the obvious Juan Soto. Santander especially might have production-based incentive to come to the DMV: in 14 Beltway Series games at Nationals Park, he's slashed .309/.377/.582 in 61 plate appearances. Joining a turbocharged young outfield core couldn't hurt too much, either; the Nationals need to spend to start winning, and they can kill two birds with one stone with a Santander signing: start spending, and start proving to the rest of the free agent class that they're willing to start spending.

Do you think the Nationals will land Anthony Santander? Should they be pursuing him to begin with? As ever, let me know on my Bluesky @theottspot.bsky.social, or all of us on Twitter @DistrictOnDeck.