It's almost July, and in baseball that means one thing more than anything else: trade season. Major League Baseball's trade deadline is a little over a month away, and, as usual, the Washington Nationals appear to be sellers. They find themselves in a tricky position, this year, though--despite the typical seller's market, it's ultimately questionable just how many pieces the Nationals will be able to find actual suitors for. Today's exercise, then, is to delve into the Nationals' roster and weigh the movability of their rental (or rental-adjacent) players.
Hitters
Josh Bell
Frankly, at this stage, Josh Bell feels like a post-deadline DFA candidate. Despite heating up in May and striking out less in June, Bell is still under the Mendoza line halfway into the season, slashing .195/.282/.358 in 71 games. He's gone on second-half heaters the last couple years, hitting 10 home runs in 51 games after the deadline for Arizona last season, but after three straight seasons of total first-half stinkers, is that a risk any team is really willing to take?
If any team is going to be willing to take a flier on Bell, I'd hazard a guess it'd be the Astros. Bell has a Houston connection, having grown up in north Texas and with a family contingent based 4 hours south on I-45. The Astros, for their part, have struggled to find any real solution at first base. Christian Walker's contract immediately appears to be going not dissimilar to José Abreu's, and promising rookie Zach Dezenzo (who had largely been playing in the corner outfield) is injured. They're looking for left-handed pop, so much so that they've taken to re-signing veteran Jon Singleton to a minor league deal. Bell, a switch-hitter, could fill that gap. Either way, the return likely wouldn't be much to write home about.
Paul DeJong
DeJong fills a gap at both third base and shortstop, but "filling a gap" could be generous. We haven't really gotten much of a chance to see what version of DeJong has shown up this year: he played just 16 games before a rogue pitch broke his nose, requiring surgery to repair his sinuses. He's deep into a rehab assignment and will likely rejoin the team soon, but when he was playing, he struggled pretty immensely, striking out 24 times in 57 MLB plate appearances. He's hit well at Double-A over the rehab stint, but hasn't really found a power stroke yet.
Finding a suitor for someone who's played just over a dozen big league games is somewhat daunting. The Brewers could try to use him as a backup for Joey Ortiz, who's been heating up a little bit; perhaps the Cubs or Reds could hope that he can take some productive plate appearances at third base. Similar to Bell, the return will likely be minimal even if DeJong finds himself donning another team's cap come August.
Amed Rosario
The year is 2025, and everyone knows who Amed Rosario is. Not, like, in the sense that he's a global megastar; moreso that if he's on your baseball team, you know exactly what he's going to do at the plate and in the field. He's the Red Sox' Rob Refsnyder: he'll hit second in the lineup against a left-handed starter, hit well against them and then be fodder for a pinch-hitter when a right-hander comes in, and while he's on the field he gives you the technical ability to play him just about anywhere, as long as being a warm body counts as "playing." Rosario's career platoon splits are about as pronounced as anyone's in the Majors: a 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, an 83 wRC+ against righties.
A team that fancies itself a contender really doesn't have much use for Rosario outside of a small-side platoon role, which limits Amed's trade return potential. An Ohio-based reunion with either Cleveland or Cincinnati doesn't seem too out of the question; both teams are in the bottom third of the league in performance against left-handed pitching. The Royals feel like a more tenuous candidate; they need the help against LHP, but they also just need offensive help period. There's not really any room for him on that infield, and Kauffman's deep outfield makes him a liability in left. Rosario's options don't run all too deep, but I'd be surprised if the Nationals couldn't find anyone to take him.
Others
Nathaniel Lowe, acquired by trade in the offseason, arrived in Washington, was spurned by the front office in arbitration avoidance negotiations, and pretty quickly started having the worst offensive season of his career. He's rebounded decently from an abysmal May, but the acquisition itself seemed kind of curious for the Nats; Lowe has just one year of team control left when this season draws to a close, and he doesn't seem like much of an extension candidate at this point. I don't see the Nationals selling on him at this deadline, though; it'd be selling at an all-time low(e) value when they could find more for him in the offseason or at next year's deadline if he performs better from here on.
Luis García Jr., for all intents and purposes, should not be traded. The Nats don't have the infield depth to sustain that move, no matter how much some fans want you to believe that CJ Abrams is ticketed to slide over to second when Seaver King comes up. It'd also be selling low on Luis after his exceptionally unlucky first two months. The Nationals need all the help they can get if they want to even dream of contention starting next year, and I can't imagine they'd find anything on the trade market that would match the immediate value García provides the team.
Pitchers
Michael Soroka
I wrote about Soroka when the team signed him to a one-year, $9 million contract in December, and I took a pretty positive slant on the signing when I did. That's proven to be the right call, as Soroka ran an excellent 11.4 K/9 and 3.49 ERA across five starts in June, completing the fifth inning in all five and recording three quality starts. His Stuff+ numbers don't flashbang you like some other pitchers' might, but his reworked mechanics are delivering him the highest average fastball velocity of his career and he's turned his slurve into a true second pitch to excellent results.
Soroka feels like someone I actually wouldn't mind giving a two-year extension to, but the more likely outcome is that he gets traded at the deadline. Quality starting pitching is always scarce, and if Michael has truly found a way to re-harness the prospect pedigree that had him finish second in 2019 Rookie of the Year voting, Nationals POBO Mike Rizzo (who, for all the criticisms I've lobbed his way, tends to generate strong returns in deadline trades) has a fantastic trade chip on his hands.
Trevor Williams
The worst-case scenario for Trevor Williams has come to pass. His strikeout rate has fallen back to 2023 levels, and the unsustainably low home-run-to-fly-ball rate that powered his 2.03 ERA in 13 starts last year is creeping back up. The time to trade him would have been at last year's deadline, but his flexor injury prevented that from being a possibility. Now, after re-signing Williams to a two-year, $14 million contract in the offseason, the Nationals are stuck with a flyballer who doesn't strike guys out, has one of the worse defenses in baseball behind him, and has only completed six innings twice in 16 starts this year. It's hard to believe Williams has any kind of suitor on the market, even as a reliever.
The Bullpen
There could have been something here, but the Nationals added three new faces to their Major League bullpen in free agency by Opening Day, and all three were designated for assignment and released before June 1. Andrew Chafin joined the team and got hurt within a couple weeks. That leaves pretty much just Kyle Finnegan. Despite a 2024 All-Star season, Finnegan's stock has fallen pretty considerably. His fastball is sitting a full MPH slower than it did last year, and his 2.89 ERA is likely powered by a HR/FB rate 4% lower than the league average. On a per-plate appearance basis his strikeout rate hasn't fallen that much, but his K/9 is down over a full tick. I guess Finnegan is movable; whatever team was to acquire him would only have him for two months, anyway. Expect a minimal return.
The resounding sentiment here at District on Deck has been that MacKenzie Gore is not going to be traded, and it's stupid to even speculate that he might. I know mainstream sports media loved to work themselves into a tizzy over thoughts of Tarik Skubal being traded last year and have now decided to do the same to this year's breakout lefty, but, similar to García, there's no return waiting out there on the market that will match the immediate contributions Mac can provide at the head of this rotation.