For the first time in several years, the Washington Nationals have bona fide offensive weapons at the top of their lineup. CJ Abrams leads National League shortstops with a 143 wRC+, James Wood ranks third in the NL in home runs, and Keibert Ruiz’s .292 batting average trails only Will Smith among major league catchers. Nathaniel Lowe is also having yet another quietly productive season, and Alex Call continues to reach base at an impressive rate.
On paper, this is the best Nats lineup since 2021. So why does this offense struggle so much to produce consistently?
Martinez is certainly on to something. The Nats rank fourth in the NL in O-Swing percentage, a metric that measures how many pitches outside the strike zone are chased. On a related note, the Nats also have the fourth-lowest hard hit rate. As they have found out, it is incredibly challenging to square up pitches outside of the zone. Chasing has consistently led to ground balls, evidenced by the Nats’ league-leading ground ball rate.
Of course, the Nats aren’t just swinging at pitches out of the zone; they’re also consistently swinging very early in the at bat. In terms of pitches per plate appearance, the Nats rank…you guessed it, fourth-lowest in the NL. The Nats’ most productive hitters have done well seeing pitches, with Wood and Lowe both ranking in the top ten, but the bottom of the lineup is struggling mightily. Following Wood and Lowe, Josh Bell has seen the next most pitches per plate appearance, ranking 37th in the NL. After Bell, the Nats don’t have another representative until Luis Garcia Jr. at 80th.
The consistent quick plate appearances have allowed opposing starting pitchers to pitch deep into games. This weekend, Cardinals starting pitchers combined for 21.2 innings pitched, an average of about seven innings pitched. In an era where the average starting pitcher departs after five innings, the Cardinals’ performance was nearly unheard of.
This weekend may have been rock bottom for the Nats’ offense. Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas each began their starts sporting ERAs above 4, yet combined for a 1.25 ERA against the Nats. Fedde’s complete game shutout in his first game as a visitor at Nationals Park was particularly painful.
Having lost five straight and being limited to just three runs in three games against St. Louis, it’s time for someone to be held accountable for the offensive underperformance. Hitting coach Darnell Coles has run out of rope.
Since 2022, Coles’ first season as hitting coach, the Nats have consistently ranked among the least potent offenses in baseball. Is Coles solely to blame? Of course not. He can only coach the players he is given, and the Nats have had some talent-deficient lineups during his tenure. Still, someone has to be held accountable. It’s time for a new voice.
A midseason firing would not be unprecedented for the Nats. They fired pitching coach Derek Lilliquist in May of 2019, a decision that contributed to the team winning the World Series. Coles himself was fired midseason by his last employer, the Arizona Diamondbacks, in 2021. The Nats won’t instantly become a World Series contender with a new hitting coach, but it would be a start.
The two most similar offenses to the Nats, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies, have made similar decisions recently. The Pirates fired their manager last week, while the Rockies have already fired their manager, bench coach, and hitting coach.
If the Nats were to relieve Coles of his duties, assistant hitting coach Chris Johnson would likely be promoted to interim hitting coach. Tommy Everidge, the Nats’ minor league hitting coordinator, could also join the big league staff.
James Wood, in particular, could benefit from a new hitting coach. Through the season’s first month and a half, Wood ranks fourth in the NL in hard hit rate and seventh in ground ball percentage. Look at Wood’s final at bat on Sunday, for example, a 117.9 MPH ground out. Since his debut, he ranks ninth in baseball in hard hit rate, sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. If he can start hitting the ball in the air consistently, the Nats have an MVP candidate on their hands. Wood is far from the only player with a tendency to pound the ball into the ground under Coles’ tutelage, but he seems to have the most to gain from a new mentor.
The Nats have been criticized in recent years for lacking accountability. They’ve quieted critics some this year, releasing relievers Colin Poche and Lucas Sims after dreadful starts to the season. It’s time to hold someone accountable for the offense now. Darnell Coles is not solely responsible for the lack of offense, but he needs to take the fall.