Our team at District on Deck discussed Luis Garcia Jr.'s hot streak nearly two weeks ago. It is time, now, to revisit that matter as Garcia Jr. is no longer hot. In fact, he is blazing on fire. In a season where many Nationals have gone bonkers with their bats, Garcia Jr. is reaching insane heights at an unreal pace, which would be on pace for a 90-home-run season if based on his last 30 games. He is the team's best bat, and it's not even close.
Luis Garcia Jr. by the numbers
Garcia Jr. has not been quiet at all this season. His splits show a start to March/April with a .253 batting average, but only one home run through those first 104 plate appearances.
When life got fun, it came in May. Garcia Jr. heated up with a .288 batting average and 4 home runs. Through his first 186 plate appearances, Garcia Jr. had 30 RBI in about two full months of baseball.
June baseball is where embers started a fire. Garcia Jr. is batting .327 since June 1, spanning 113 at-bats. He has 15 home runs in that time, and over his last 30 games, Garcia Jr. is on a pace for about 90 home runs.
Now, will Garcia Jr. actually hit 90 home runs? No. But that is the pace he would be on if this streak began on Opening Day. His current pace really is for 37 home runs across the remainder of the season. That would be his career most by double, with his previous yearly best being 18 total home runs in 2025. Before that, he had never had double-digit home runs in any of his 6 prior seasons.
To dig through the numbers even further, Garcia Jr. has 68 RBI, a .291 batting average, a .322 on-base percentage, and a .572 slugging percentage on the season. His offensive rating, per Fangraphs, is a plus-14.6. By that metric, he is the Nationals' 3rd-best offensive player behind CJ Abrams and James Wood.
What to expect
The role of Garcia Jr. has been a welcome one. He mostly bats 2nd in the batting lineup, trailing Wood as the leadoff man and hitting ahead of Curtis Mead and All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams. Of his 87 games this season, Garcia Jr. has started 69. He will remain the starter at 1st base indefinitely.
The hot streak would be viewed as ready to come down to earth. Garcia Jr. is playing at an unreal pace, which would earn him NL MVP honors if sustained. If we are being real, Garcia Jr. is not on the season-long level of a Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, or Kyle Schwarber. He is not on the level of his own teammate, James Wood, who is currently 4th in MVP odds, although a long shot (plus-5500).
The Nationals are the 3rd-best team in MLB based on their offensive rating. They are 1st in runs scored, 2nd in slugging percentage, 3rd in OPS, and T-1st in home runs. As the team expects to remain among the MLB's top offensive units, Garcia Jr. will come down to earth. It is just a matter of when, and, of course, we hope that 'when' is not for a long time yet.
Add us as a preferred source on Google