With the firing of Washington Nationals manager Dave Martinez and longtime General Manager Mike Rizzo now in the rearview, one of the main questions that people have is concerning the timing of it all. While people all over the baseball landscape have questioned whether or not it was the right decision in itself, the fact that it was done exactly a week before the team makes the #1 overall pick led more fans to be even more curious as to the reasoning.
However, what we are finding out now in the aftermath of the decision is that the the overall firing of Rizzo might not actually make a huge impact on the draft plans of the Nationals. To the common fan that isn't super tuned in with what the Nationals front office is doing behind the scenes, they might not know that Rizzo had previously surrendered primary control over drafting decisions over to a duo led by Vice President of Amateur Scouting Danny Haas and Senior Director of Amateur Scouting Brad Ciolek.
That duo took over primary decision-making and drafting responsibilities for the club last year, and they tipped their hand a little bit as to what they covet with last year's first round pick, Seaver King. While King was not a flashy pick by any means, he fit the profile of exactly what they covet, which is an athletic middle infielder whose best tool is supposed to be their bat-to-ball skills.
While King has not exactly lived up to that billing so far in his professional career, with a 21% strikeout rate this season to prove it, on paper he was a pick that should have no issue struggling against lower levels of minor league competition. While he might still be fine in the long run, his pick last year likely serves as a bit of a blueprint to what the duo of Ciolek and Haas covet, and there are likely two players who fit that profile in this year's draft.
It has been known that Rizzo was always one who preferred pitching with top draft picks, with many of his 1st-round picks over the years including Stephen Strasburg, Jackson Rutledge, Mason Denaburg, Seth Romero, and Cade Cavalli, among others. If you remember back to the 2023 draft, whispers around the league knew that Rizzo had a preference for Pirates righty Paul Skenes with the #2 pick, and he ended up going #1 to Pittsburgh after Dylan Crews basically told the Pirates that he wouldn't sign with them if selected.
Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post yesterday mentioned that Rizzo's old-school nature and scouting background, as someone who "trusts his eyes" sometimes led to disagreements between him and the "new school" trio of Haas, Ciolek, and newly appointed interim GM Mike DeBartolo. Rizzo was set to still have the final say as any GM does, but there were whispers that he had been pushing for a pitcher like Kade Anderson out of LSU, a guy who could be in the big leagues as soon as next season.
This would line up with what Janes was implying with her comments that Rizzo disagreed with the new school trio, and was set to prioritize a player who was closer to the big leagues rather than taking the best talent and long-term fit for the club. Rizzo being fired a week before the draft shows that the organization felt as if the pick would be best made without interference from the GM, and the franchise will instead turn their hopes over to their trio, spearheaded by the analystics-focused and forward thinking DeBartolo at the helm.
With that being said, all signs point to the Nationals being down to just a handful of players, with 2 shortstops, both of whom have different connections and fits with the Nationals long-term, being the most likely options. The first is the betting favorite for the pick, Ethan Holliday, who might not have the hit tool that the team covets, but does have the family history, as his older brother Jackson was the #1 pick back in 2022, when Ciolek was still with the Orioles as their Director of Draft Operations.
That family connection might be enough to push Holliday, who many scouts believe has the highest superstar potential of any bat in this year's wide open draft, above the other likely name the front office is considering, with fellow Oklahoma prep shortstop Eli Willits. The Nationals have hosted Willits and his family on a visit and private workout to Nationals Park, and he more clearly fits the profile of what this new draft group covets most.
He is the youngest player in the draft, who won't be 18-years-old until December, and is a switch-hitting shortstop with tools galore. His hit tool is among the best in this year's entire draft class, and his glove, speed, and arm should be a great enough combination to keep him at shortstop once he gets to the big leagues. His one weakness to his game right now is his power, which doesn't stick out as much as Holliday's, but given his youth and overall potential, he should be able to add more muscle easily and begin to hit for more power as he matures physically.
Overall, there should be some more information and tidbits that come out regarding the Nationals draft plans for the #1 pick in the coming days, but for now, it appears as if it is likely a 2-man race for that critical top pick.
Do you want the Nationals to select Ethan Holliday or Eli Willits? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.