Nationals select high-upside reliever in Rule 5 Draft

Although the Washington Nationals have yet to make a splash in free agency, they've given us some action to discuss over the last couple days. After winning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 First-Year Player Draft, they have now also selected an intriguing player in the Rule 5 Draft.

On Wednesday, the Nationals selected right-handed pitcher Evan Reifert of the Tampa Bay Rays with the fifth pick in the MLB Rule 5 Draft. This marks the third consecutive season in which the Nationals have opted to participate, after not doing so since 2012 prior, when they selected utilityman Jeff Kobernus.

At 25 years old, Reifert is essentially a two-pitch player, featuring a wipeout slider and above-average fastball that sits between 94-97 miles per hour. MLB Pipeline rates his fastball as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, which is about as high as you will find for any pitch for any player. He spent the entire 2024 season pitching in Double-A Montgomery.

In terms of size (6-foot-4 and 190 pounds) and minor league production, he closely resembles starting pitcher DJ Herz, who throughout his minor league career struck out batters at a high rate and gave up minimal damage, but at times struggled to stay within the strike zone. Herz holds the obvious advantages of being left-handed and a starting pitcher, but nonetheless, they have similar tendencies on the mound.

By many accounts (including one of my favorites for advanced analytics, as shown below), Reifert was viewed as a great value pick in this year's Rule 5 draft, despite being an older prospect than usual.

A former 30th round draft pick by the Texas Rangers in 2018, Reifert opted to stay in college before signing with the Milwaukee Brewers as an undrafted free agent in 2020. Keep in mind, that year's draft was reduced to five rounds due to Covid-19. For the sake of comparison, Washington's No. 22 prospect, relief pitcher Zach Brzykcy, was also undrafted that year.

Following a very successful 2021 season, Reifert was traded by Milwaukee to Tampa Bay in exchange for infielder Mike Brosseau. He endured through fairly substantial struggles in 2022. He opened the season in Double-A, but seemingly lost his command, and was quickly demoted to the Florida Complex League (in essence, extended Spring Training). He would later pitch a handful of games at the Rookie level and spent much of the season in High-A.

To close 2022, Reifert had an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League, which was viewed as his breakout performance, as he tossed 11.2 shutout innings with 25 strikeouts and only four walks. He pitched sparingly in 2023 due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder, but returned to his dominant form in 2024.

Reifert has entered Washington's organization as their No. 26 prospect, accordioning to MLB Pipeline - close behind players like Elijah Green and Kevin Made, but ahead of Andrew Pinckney and Brad Lord, among others.

For a more detailed summary of Reifert, the following is a description from his MLB Pipeline profile:

"The 6-foot-4 right-hander’s 82-85 mph slider is the star of the show, and he pitches like it, throwing it 52 percent of the time at Double-A in 2024. Its sharp vertical drop out of a lower three-quarters delivery befuddles hitters, and they whiffed on 70 percent of their swings against the breaking ball last year. It’s so effective at backfooting that Reifert even throws it plenty against lefties, whom he held to a .117 average in ’24. Reifert’s fastball comes with velo around 94-97 but is more ordinary by comparison. It can still sneak up on hitters sitting on the breaking stuff.

Reifert has experienced serious control issues at times in his career, though his walk rate with Montgomery was a more modest 9.9 percent. He’s at his best when he isn’t nibbling and lets natural movement get his pitches to the edges of the zone. The slider alone will give him a terrific chance at sticking in Washington’s bullpen, and he has high-leverage potential if the command holds."

Whereas the selection of Thaddeus Ward (who is no longer in the organization) in 2022 was a bit more risky, in part because he had already undergone Tommy John surgery and had spottier production, Reifert seems like a safer selection. While not entirely analogous, perhaps he should be viewed like infielder Nasim Nunez, last year's Rule 5 pick.

In other words, don't expect Reifert to be a core contributor out of the bullpen, but don't be surprised if he becomes a reliable option in low-leverage situations, and maybe even earns himself a larger role by August or September.

To reiterate the requirements for Rule 5 selections, Reifert must remain on either the active roster or injured list for the entire 2025 season and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. If keeping him in the majors becomes impossible, he would need to be returned to Tampa Bay. If retained through next season, however, the Nationals would be able to send him to the minor leagues in future seasons. Washington was successful in this endeavor in both 2023 and 2024, so I expect this to hold true again in 2025.

If nothing else, by selecting Reifert, the Nationals have added a bullpen arm, which is something they lack now, especially after non-tendering Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey. That likely won't increase Reifert's role, but it likely improves his odds of staying on the roster from wire to wire.

What do you expect from the newest pitcher the Nationals have added? Are you skeptical given his advanced age or other factors? Do you think his time developing within Tampa's pitching factory boosts his chances of becoming a meaningful contributor in the future? As always, chime in to let me know your thoughts @stephen_newman1.