The Nationals have indulged in fantastic pitching as of late. Over their last 5 games, the Nationals are 4-1 and have allowed no more than 3 runs in any game and just 8 in total (1.6 per game). The previously underperforming Miles Mikolas has posted consecutive scoreless outings. Zack Littell has allowed just 6 runs himself over his last 5 games, and no more than 2 runs in either affair.
Unfortunately, there will always be an obstacle in the road at some point across the journey. Luckily for the Nationals, that obstacle is easy to work beyond. That speedbump comes in the form of Jake Irvin and his 5.23 ERA.
Irvin went very strong in his prior start on Saturday, May 23, against the Atlanta Braves. He pitched 5 innings with 7 strikeouts and zero runs allowed. However, that came at the cost of Irvin's right shoulder, which has been strained. He has been placed on the 15-Day IL and will now be out for a minimum of two weeks. Given his 2nd-worst ERA among Nationals starters, Irvin may not be missed too much.
The Nationals had first been reported to be going with Andrew Alvarez as Friday's starter against the San Diego Padres. Alvarez surely would have earned the job with little resistance from the fans. He has a 2.84 ERA over 12.2 relief innings pitched in 2026. Backtracking to 2025, Alvarez in fact started 5 games for the Nationals, posting a 2.31 ERA over 4 innings per game.
Revised reports state that Blake Butera will now side with Paxton Schultz as an opener in Friday's game. The expected case is that the Nationals go with a bullpen game, in which Schultz starts and is then turned over to Alvarez, if not anyone else.
Schultz might have a short leash, being a poor pitcher who has a 5.30 ERA over 15 games played in 2026. The strategy to start Schultz may be questionable, but it is actually common practice among analytically driven MLB teams.
The early innings of an MLB game are viewed as lower-leverage. A team is tied 0-0 at the start of the game, rather than holding a lead. Teams will go with the lesser pitcher to start, hoping to hold off the opposing team relatively unscathed. If the Nationals build an early lead on top of their bats, which rank 1st in runs scored across the MLB, they can turn to high-leverage pitching via Alvarez.
If the Nationals do fall flat, at least they conserved their best relief arms for the following two games of the weekend series against the Padres. A bullpen game can quickly use up arms. As in a game of chess, a low-leverage move will be made to begin the game, and the big guns come out when most necessary. If losing, you keep moving your pawns around and play defense rather than offense.
The Nationals had the day off on Thursday so all of their relief arms are rested. That makes the options many, further defending to move to start the game with Schultz and then pivot accordingly.
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