2024 Division Outlook: AL East
Two divisions down, four to go. The 2024 MLB Season is right around the corner, and it's time to preview and highlight the five squads that make up the American League East, a division that looks to be one of the strongest divisions in the sport.
![Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_6000,h_3375,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/GettyImages/mmsport/95/01hrshyfddw1ym8t9s4z.jpg)
Welcome back to another round of the division preview series, this time tackling the recently ultra-competitive American League East. The AL Easts holds some historic franchises and rivalries, and looks to be as competitive as ever heading into 2024. The newly up and coming juggernaut Baltimore Orioles will headline the division, as they look to repeat as AL East champs. The Yankees and Blue Jays project to be competitive and give the O's a run for their money, with the always competitive Rays being right there too. The Red Sox are weak when compared to the rest of the division, but can honestly hold their own in my opinion. I can describe the AL East in three words - competitive and fun.
Important side note - as I am writing this article, there are still many major league free agents who are still available. The list includes a 2023 Cy Young Award winner in Blake Snell, alongside Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, and many others. Position players that remain free agents include outfielder Tommy Pham and designated hitter J.D. Martinez. With all that being said, I am basing my current predictions off how rosters are currently constructed. Any of these free agents being signed could drastically change how successful a team is. Keep that in mind if any team signs any of these FAs. This applies to all already published division outlook and all future previews, so long as this list of players remains free agents before I write each division preview.
Baltimore Orioles
![Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/images/GettyImages/mmsport/95/01hrshhfac002r0ecaet.jpg)
Key Additions
- RHP Corbin Burnes
- RHP Craig Kimbrel
Key Loses
- 2B Adam Frazier
- OF Aaron Hicks
- RHP Kyle Gibson
After years of torment as one of the worst teams in the Major Leagues, the Baltimore Orioles seem destined to be a juggernaut for years to come. They exceeded expectations in 2022, finishing 83-79 after an abysmal 52-110 record in the 2021 season. Many people, including me, were skeptical of that 2022 season, thinking the Orioles simply exceed expectations and were still a couple years away from true contention. Manager Brandon Hyde and his crew went out and proved any and all doubters wrong, thrusting forward with a 101-61 record that rewarded them with their first AL East crown since 2014 and the number 1 seed in the American League playoff race. Baltimore will look to repeat their regular season dominance from a year ago, this time with an urge for that dominance to carry over into the postseason.
The Orioles are built off the previously mentioned years of torment. Years of last place finishes and trades allowed Baltimore to rebuild their entire roster. Now, the Orioles are a team full of young talent, with a now accomplished group already in the majors and more elite talent on the way. The O's lineup is headlined by that youthful talent, with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson already establishing themselves as two of the best hitters in the American League. Anthony Santander is an established power threat in their lineup, with Ryan Mountcastle falling under that same mold, just with a little less consistency. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays are elite defenders that will still contribute offensively. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, two guys with little to no MLB experience, look to be the next duo to come out of that number 1 ranked farm system. After finishing 2023 scoring the fourth most runs in the American League, Baltimore will look to repeat as a top offense, and I believe they will.
The biggest splash made by Mike Elias was completing the blockbuster deal that landed Corbin Burnes in Baltimore, a move that showed Baltimore meant business. Sure, the Orioles lineup has to room to improve, but so does any lineup. Baltimore's biggest struggle was their starting rotation, as their starters accumulated 10.7 fWAR, good for ninth in the American League. They helped take care of that issue in a big war, going out and trading for Corbin Burnes, a former NL Cy Young award winner, who accumulated 3.4 fWAR by himself in 2023. Now, Baltimore has an established ace headlining their rotation, the commodity they had been seeking for years. Kyle Bradish broke out in a big way last year, posting a 2.34 ERA in the second half, the second best mark in the majors, leading him to fourth place finish in the AL Cy Young race. Former top prospect and young ace Grayson Rodriguez will look to take another step forward this year, potentially creating a rotation led by three ace-level caliber pitchers. Round the rotation out with a mixture of Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and John Means, and Baltimore has an overall strong rotation. The biggest concern for Baltimore's pitching staff might stem from their bullpen, as they will have to compete in 2024 without elite closer Felix Bautista. 2023 breakout Yennier Cano and future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel will have to try to keep the Baltimore bullpen stable in Bautista's place. Regardless, Baltimore looks to be a legit contender in the American League, both for 2024 and for years to come.
Corbin Burnes and Kyle Bradish would’ve had the best ERA by a duo in all of MLB last season at just 3.13 pic.twitter.com/yQnjikbwLt
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) February 2, 2024
Team MVP: Gunnar Henderson
Team Cy Young: Corbin Burnes
Team X-Factor: Grayson Rodriguez
The Nationals will host the first matchup of the Battle of the Beltway as they host the Orioles from May 7-8, and will visit Baltimore for two more from August 13-14.
Boston Red Sox
![Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/images/GettyImages/mmsport/95/01hrshppsjg4d3cx6eh3.jpg)
Key Additions
- 2B/SS Vaughn Grissom
- OF Tyler O'Neil
- RHP Lucas Giolito
- 1B C.J. Cron
Key Loses
- LHP Chris Sale
- OF Alex Verdugo
- LHP James Paxton
- OF Adam Duvall
- DH Justin Turner
When evaluating the Red Sox, I can't help but describe them as weird. They play in the stacked AL East and have a lackluster roster, at least when compared to the other teams in the divisions. Therefore, I expect them to finish last in their division for the third straight year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they made some noise towards the end of the season, at the very least playing spoiler.
The biggest star on the Red Sox roster is the guy handling the hot corner - Rafael Devers. The Red Sox announced the contract extension of Devers in January, perhaps the best news for the Boston faithful this offseason. Devers looks to be the most prolific hitter in this Red Sox lineup once again, and it'll be interesting to watch who steps up as major contributors for Boston. Trevor Story will have some hefty expectations placed on him for 2024, as the Red Sox inked the slugger to a 6 year, $140 million heading into the 2022 season. Story's time in Boston has been plagued with injuries, leading him to an average inaugural season, followed by a horrendous sophomore season. Story's health and production very well may be a make or break for the Red Sox. Tyler O'Neil is in a similar situation, as the outfielder hopes for a rebound season in Boston. Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran all look to be offensive contributors in Alex Cora's lineup, which is then rounded out with Ceddanne Rafaela, Emmanuel Valdez, and, Connor Wong. There is some firepower in Boston's lineup, mainly thanks to Rafael Devers, but there are so many question marks outside of Devers. While projected to begin the season on the IL, I do have to mention trade acquisition Vaughn Grissom, as the Red Sox hope to see what they got in the youngster.
Boston's pitching staff looks to be a question mark as well. The Red Sox went out and inked Lucas Giolito to a 2-year, $38.5 million deal, just to be rewarded with him having to miss the 2024 season with an elbow injury. That puts Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello as their projected 1-2 starters, a job neither seem too fit for. Pivetta has been durable in his time in Boston, but has yet to fully establish consistency as a starter. On Bello's side, the Red Sox made it known they believe in the young starter after they locked him up with a 6-year extension. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Garret Whitlock project to be the last three starters in Boston's rotation. In my eyes, all three guys have strong potential, but just like Boston's front office, we are waiting to see that potential turn into sustained results. Future Hall of Famer Kenley Jansen will serve as Boston's closer once again, with 2023 Cy Young award votes-getter Chris Martin joining him in the backend of the bullpen.
Team MVP: Rafeal Devers
Team Cy Young: Brayan Bello
Team X-Factor: Trevor Story
The Nationals will visit historic Fenway Park and face Boston for a three game series from May 10-12.
New York Yankees
![New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/images/GettyImages/mmsport/95/01hrsj0e6v6n0scdt27x.jpg)
Key Additions
- OF Juan Soto
- OF Alex Verdugo
- OF Trent Grisham
- RHP Marcus Stroman
- LHP Caleb Ferguson
Key Loses
- RHP Luis Severino
- RHP Michael King
- LHP Wandy Peralta
- UTL Isiah Kiner-Falefa
- C Kyle Higashioka
It is now or never for the New York Yankees, as Brian Cashman made it apparent it is boom or bust for the Evil Empire. Cashman proceeded to go out and make some major splashes, adding Juan Soto in a blockbuster deal with the Padres, acquiring Alex Verdugo in a rare deal with their rival Red Sox, and signing starter Marcus Stroman. Now, the Yankees are fully in go mode in their attempt to claim a World Series title, something they haven't done since 2009.
Aaron Boone's lineup is looking to bounce back from the below average offensive attack displayed last year, and the aforementioned reinforcements will help greatly in doing so. When healthy, the Yankees now have two of the top hitters in the game in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, a duo that will be a treat to watch. Everybody already knows about them, so I don't have much else to say about them. Anthony Rizzo has found a new best friend in the short porch, helping him rejuvenate his career, and Gleyber Torres is constantly improving as an offensive threat. DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton are veterans hoping to remain contributors, with the former still doing so, while the latter has watched his production fall off a cliff. If Stanton can even slightly tap into the power that propelled him to an MVP award in 2017, the Yankees lineup will get a massive production boost. However, if Stanton struggles to say healthy and lacks production, New York will have to deal with that black hole in their lineup and salary. Alex Verdugo lost all aura when he fell victim to the New York policy of no facial hair, but could join Rizzo in being best pals with the short porch this year. Rounded out by the promising youngster Anthony Volpe, I fully expect the Yankees lineup to perform at a top five level in the American League.
Juan Soto just went 612ft no BS pic.twitter.com/MXor9jK1He
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) March 10, 2024
On the pitching side, the season hasn't even started and the Yankees have already received a massive blow, as ace and 2023 AL Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole is expected to miss the opening month or two at the least. With that news, the Yankees were briefly swirled into Blake Snell rumors, but now that pairing is considered "highly unlikely." With Cole out, the rest of the Yankees rotation will have to step up in a major way in his place. Nestor Cortes followed up a great 2022 season with an injury-filled, low performing 2023. Carlos Rodon's first year of his 6-year, $162 million contract was a disaster to say the least, as he put up -0.2 fWAR. Marcus Stroman is a contact first pitcher who had a down second half last year, and Clarke Schmidt is a fine backend of the rotation guy. This isn't me trying to be overly negative on the Yankees, as I still expect them to a competitive squad this year, but rather me expressing my doubts. If Cortes and Rodon can be healthy and perform close to their normal level, the Yankees will be more than fine.
Team Co-MVPs: Aaron Judge / Juan Soto
Team Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
Team X-Factor: Gerrit Cole / Giancarlo Stanton
The Nationals will host the Yankees for three games from August 26-28.
Tampa Bay Rays
![Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game Two](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/images/GettyImages/mmsport/95/01hrsjdsmh2krsrz6x0t.jpg)
Key Additions
- RHP Ryan Pepiot
- RHP Phil Maton
- LHP Tyler Alexander
Key Loses
- OF Manuel Margot
- RHP Tyler Glasnow
- 1B/OF Luke Raley
- C Christian Bethancourt
- LHP Jake Diekman
- RHP Robert Stephenson
Kevin Cash will have a unique challenge heading into 2024, as the Rays roster feels weaker than in previous years. Offensively, the loss of Wander Franco speaks for itself. Pitching wise, the Rays will start 2024 without four of their best starters. That leaves the door open for the Rays youngsters will establish themselves, and if there's anything the Rays are exceptional at, it's getting the most out of their players.
The Rays will look at Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena for the bulk of their offensive production. Both of them are sleeper MVP picks and look to anchor this lineup. Brandon Lowe and Isaac Paredes are the power providers in Tampa Bay, with Jose Lowe waiting to come off the injured list to join them. The rest of the lineup are guys that haven't been consistent major league contributions yet. Jonathan Aranda, Richie Palacios, Jose Caballero, and Rene Pinto are all guys we haven't seen all too much of, so I don't have much to say about that. Kevin Cash will still have veterans Harold Ramirez and Amed Rosario up his sleeve, a narrative that will be worth keeping an eye on. Regardless of these question marks, the Rays are infamous for getting the most out of their players, so don't be surprised if this Rays lineup once again finishes as one of the most productive offenses in the league. The biggest question will be if that production can finally carry over into the postseason.
When analyzing the pitching side, I had the same notes as I did looking at the Rays lineup. Sure they have Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Zack Litell ready to go, but outside of those three, the Rays are relying on young pitchers. Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, and Taj Bradley are all injured, each of which are above quality arms, including a Cy Young contender in McClanahan. Even with those four guys missing to start the year, the Rays make the most out of their pitchers, and it'll be fascinating to see how they maximize each of their pitchers' results once again. Regardless of injuries, the Rays always find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. Every time I'm ready to say they won't be able to contend, they end making the playoffs anyways. This time, I am confident to say I don't have the Rays making the initial playoff picture heading into 2024.
Team MVP: Yandy Diaz
Team Cy Young: Zach Eflin
Team X-Factor: All the young guys
The Nationals will visit the Trop for a three game set from June 28-30.
Toronto Blue Jays
![MLB: Spring Training - Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/images/GettyImages/mmsport/95/01hrsjj53a7fc4ara0zb.jpg)
Key Additions
- UTL Isiah Kiner-Falefa
- DH Justin Turner
- CF Kevin Kiermaier
- RHP Yariel Rodriguez
- DH/1B Joey Votto
Key Loses
- 3B Matt Chapman
- DH Brandon Belt
- UTL Whit Merrifield
- RHP Jordan Hicks
- LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
Wrapping up the AL East, let's check out the team up North. Toronto made the playoffs in '23, but lost two in a row to the Twins to find themselves on the couches quite quickly in October. Looking for more in 2024, Toronto has the roster to do it.
John Schneider's crew has the offensive tools to get the job done, but how many of them will perform their best is the question. We all know what Vlad Guerrero Jr. can do, but that isn't the question at stake, but rather how will he do. Guerrero had a good 2023 season by all means, but knowing what he can do, it was below expectations. This is especially true when we watched him put up 166 wRC+ and 6.3 fWAR in 2021. The Toronto faithful will look for Vlad Jr. to return to that offensive dominance put up a few years ago, which when combined with Bo Bichette's offensive capabilities, pushes Toronto's offensive potential through the roof. Veterans George Springer and Justin Turner will provide more consistent bats in Toronto's lineup, with Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier adding elite defensive prowess with some pop in their bats. Toronto also has an elite catching tandem up their sleeves, with Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen being able to get the job done both offensively and behind the dish.
This missile left Vlad Jr.'s bat at 113 MPH! 🚀
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) March 15, 2024
In the last five seasons, only Giancarlo Stanton has hit more 113+ MPH balls than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.! 104 of them!pic.twitter.com/pM9XHHg4MI
Toronto will return with another strong pitching staff, headlined by no other than Cy Young contender Kevin Gausman. After a third place finish in the AL Cy Young race, Gausman is ready to return as an elite ace in 2024, a position he should easily hold. Chris Bassit, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi combine to make a strong roation behind Gausman, but the five spot is where the questions arise. After a superb sophomore season where he finished third in the Cy Young race, Alek Manoah fell apart in 2023. He posted -0.4 fWAR and a BB/9 of 6.08, proving just how all over the place he was last season. If Manoah returns to his true form, then Toronto has a second ace. On the other end, if Manoah faults once again, then they'll have to rely on their depth options, which does include top prospect Ricky Tiedemann. Even if Manoah struggles, Toronto can succeed, but any Manoah success just pushes Toronto's potential further.
Team MVP: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Team Cy Young: Kevin Gausman
Team X-Factor: Alek Manoah
The Nationals will host the Blue Jays for a three game seires from May 3-5.
The AL East might just be the most competitive division in baseball in 2024, something that sets up the division to also be the most fun. I really don't have much else to say about the AL East heading into the year, so let's wrap it up with predicted division standings:
1. Baltimore Orioles (99-63)
2. New York Yankees (90-72)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80)
5. Boston Red Sox (78-84)