3 Nightmare Scenarios for the Nationals at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

The MLB Trade Deadline is July 30th at 6 PM Eastern Time and the Nationals have already been active, trading Hunter Harvey to the Kansas City Royals on July 14th. Players like Jesse Winker, Dylan Floro and Derek Law are on expiring contracts while Kyle Finnegan and Lane Thomas are set to be free agents following the 2025 season, making all of them prime candidates to be traded. However, there are scenarios in which the Nationals fail to capitalize on the Trade Deadline, as has happened a time or two in the past. Here are three nightmare Trade Deadline scenarios for the Washington Nationals.

1. Lane Thomas and Kyle Finnegan are not traded

The Nationals should be trying to improve their lackluster farm system at the deadline and Kyle Finnegan and Lane Thomas are certainly going to be hot commodities, especially since they both come with an extra year of team control. Finnegan was an All Star and has emerged as one of the best closers in baseball this season while Thomas has his shortcomings, but absolutely mashes lefties and can play all three outfield spots, even if it is at a below average rate.

It's clear that the team will not be competitive this season and unless there are changes in the front office and/or coaching staff, they are also unlikely to be competitive in 2025 without major help. Thus, it makes sense to trade players like Finnegan and Thomas in what is sure to be a seller-friendly market. Unfortunately, General Manager Mike Rizzo views Lane Thomas as an everyday player rather than a platoon bat and Kyle Finnegan as one of the game's best closers and that "we're not going to get rid of [them] easy". This is what held both players around last season despite plenty of interest in both at the 2023 deadline.

In reality, Lane Thomas is a prime example of a platoon bat, as he has a 71 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers compared to a 163 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, but Rizzo is either willfully ignorant to this or just somehow unaware. Thomas has value, just not as high as the Nationals likely think.

As for Finnegan, he was named to the NL All-Star roster and has had a great season, but many teams will see his peripheral statistics as a sign of impending regression. The Nationals should strike and sell high on Finnegan. Trading the two is absolutely the correct move, particularly if you package them together to maximize the return. This is a seller-friendly market and teams would pay a bit more to have an extra year of control. Not trading them would make the deadline an absolute failure.

2. Standing pat at the deadline

While this scenario is very unlikely, it would be an unmitigated disaster. The team has quite a few pieces to send away, including the aforementioned Lane Thomas and Kyle Finnegan as well as Dylan Floro, Jesse Winker, and Derek Law. There is no downside to trading any of those players, as none of them seem to have a long-term spot in the organization. At the 2023 Trade Deadline, the only move the Nationals made was sending Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs even though they still had a few other pieces that would have gotten a decent return. Making this mistake again would only lengthen the rebuild and provide nothing of value to the team.

3. Keeping Jesse Winker

Jesse Winker has undoubtedly been one of the most fun Nationals to watch this season and has been a bright spot on yet another bad Nationals team, but he is one of the best bats available on the market and the biggest failure this deadline would be not moving him. Even if everyone else stays, Winker MUST be traded. He is a left-handed bat that gets on base often and has power, a set of traits that is highly sought after by contenders at the deadline, and should command a solid return similar to what the team got for Candelario last season. If the team fails to trade what is easily their top commodity, it would be the absolute worst case scenario for this deadline.