Analyzing the Nationals' options for Round One of the MLB Draft

The Nationals have been frequent flyers at the top of the draft in recent seasons, adding players such as Dylan Crews, Elijah Green and Brady House in the top part of the draft in their respective seasons. So far it seems as though the Nationals are on track to hit on two of those three, which would already be an above average hit rate for most MLB teams and their draft picks.

Now this season, due to the new MLB Draft Lottery rules, the Nationals could not select any higher than 10th overall since they picked 2nd overall last season. Many teams selecting in the lottery this season will be in the same position next season, when the Nationals will be lottery eligible once again and likely find themselves at the top of the draft once again. The Nationals actually won the draft lottery, twice, when this year's draft order was being determined but they were foiled by those new rules, so instead of one of the draft's best, they will hope to get their guy at pick 10.

So who will the Nationals be looking at and who is likely to be available? Let's start with who will not be available.

Players who will be picked top 5-7

Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, Jac Caglianone, Chase Burns, Hagen Smith

These are the consensus best of the best in the draft. Bazzana and Condon are considered the top two players in the draft, though there is some talk with the Guardians potentially going underslot with JJ Wetherholt at the top pick as his ceiling is high but he had a nagging hamstring injury this season. Burns is considered to be the top arm available after posting another strong season at Wake Forest, but Smith is a lefty who also found major success in the SEC this season. Caglianone is a potential two-way player, but is likely to be a hitter only as a professional. He is a Golden Spikes Award winner who has massive upside for a team looking to take a big swing with their first pick.

Players who could fall, but will likely go top 9

Braden Montgomery, Nick Kurtz

While there are surprises every year and the philosophy of an underslot draft strategy leads to players being available later in the draft when they shouldn't be, both Montgomery and Kurtz will likely have their names called prior to the Nationals being on the clock at pick 10. Montgomery is an Outfielder whose stock has risen with a strong showing in the College World Series at Texas A&M. Kurtz is a big power bat, although with some defensive limitations which will see him as a First Base/DH type as a pro. Teams should draft the Best Player Available as opposed to need in baseball, but Kurtz would be both if he were for some reason available at 10 for Washington.

The Leading Candidates

Bryce Rainer, Konnor Griffin, Trey Yesavage, James Tibbs

The Nationals certainly could go underslot at 10 if they wanted to try and cut a deal and then snag a player who falls to them at 44, similar to how they convinced Travis Sykora to forego his college commitment and sign with the team after being drafted in the 3rd round last year. But if the Nationals stick and pick, as they traditionally have, then it is likely one of these four names we will see in a Curly W hat.

Now if you do the math, I only listed eight names previously and there are nine picks prior to the Nationals picking. That means one of these names will likely not be available at 10, but you never know.

Since these are the four likeliest options for the Nationals, let's look at the quick reasons why the Nationals should and should not draft each respective player.

Bryce Rainer

Why the Nats should draft him: The argument for Rainer is an easy one. He has an enormously high ceiling and is arguably the best prep bat in the country, even drawing comparisons to Corey Seager. It is hard to pass up on that kind of upside and for the Nationals, they could use upside bats to supplement their potential future roster. Rainer has proven himself of playing shortstop at the next level and could even potentially contribute on the mound as a two-way player.

Why the Nats should not draft him: The argument for not drafting Rainer has less to do with him and more to do with the Nationals as an organization. The Nationals struggle to develop prep bats and after drafting Elijah Green and seemingly missing in a big way on that pick, the Nationals might want to opt for someone with more seasoning, even if the upside is not as high. While Brady House was recently promoted to AAA, his numbers were not the most convincing and he has had an up and down career thus far, though he is still looking like a success all things considered.

Konnor Griffin

Why the Nats should draft him: Similar to Rainer, the argument for Griffin is an easy one - he has elite upside. Griffin is a five tool player with legitimate 30-30 upside as a professional shortstop. That kind of potential is something every team could use, but particularly the Nationals. In fact, the Nationals were heavily linked to Griffin in recent weeks, meaning that we could hear Griffin's name heard when the Nationals' pick is announced.

Why the Nats should not draft him: Also similar to Rainer, the argument not to draft Griffin is more to do with the organization than the player. Are the Nationals the right organization to help Griffin, or Rainer for that matter, reach their potential? They certainly have made strides with their pitching development, so perhaps their hitting development is not far behind. But any prep bat is risky for the Nationals at this point in time, regardless of their upside.

Trey Yesavage

Why the Nats should draft him: The first, and only, arm on this list, Yesavage offers a pitch mix with a mid 90s fastball and an over-the-top breaking ball, winning the AAC Pitcher of the Year. The Nationals have had much success with their pitching development this season, so this pick would be more playing to their strengths than it being their biggest need. The Nationals have not selected a pitcher in the first round since 2020, when they took Cade Cavalli. Yesavage would immediately be their top pitching prospect when Cavalli graduates soon, and with the progress some of their other arms have made, they could look to deal and supplement their major league roster via trade instead of developing everything they need themselves.

Why the Nats should not draft him: Yesavage is unquestionably a first round talent, but he does not necessarily have the elite stuff you might look for with a top 10 pick. Most scouts project him as a middle of the rotation guy, which every team needs, but the Nationals have depth with guys that already meet that criteria. If they are looking for elite upside or an underslot deal, then Yesavage might not be the guy for them.

James Tibbs

Why the Nats should draft him: The Nationals need more firepower on offense and Tibbs does that in a big way, with 30 home run potential while showing good discipline at the plate, walking more than he struck out this season. He has a chance to really move through the Minor Leagues quickly thanks to being a college bat and could make an impact for the team sooner rather than later. While he played outfield at Florida State, he is limited to Left Field as he does not have great speed, but has played First Base in the past and a full-time position switch could be in his future. Thankfully, the Nationals need a First Baseman too.

Why the Nats should not draft him: The only argument against Tibbs is upside, which is pretty loose argument. Even if Tibbs does not have the same elite upside as some other names in this draft, his floor is arguably higher. That being said, the Nationals may still want to take chances on that elite upside, so Tibbs may not be their guy.

Underslot Names to Watch

Cam Smith, Brody Brecht, Vance Honeycutt, Tommy White, Jurrangelo Cijntje

Danny Haas is the new Scouting Director for the Nationals and this is his first draft with the team after coming over from Baltimore. The Orioles frequently utilized an underslot draft philosophy in order to build up the depth in the Farm System, and we are all seeing the benefits of that come to fruition now.

This is not to say it is a certainty the Nationals will go underslot, but just that they may be more inclined to do so than years past. I honestly hope they don't go too far underslot, as a top 10 pick is a top 10 pick and I don't want the team overthinking their selection, but their Farm System still needs some work.

It will be an exciting couple of weeks for the Nationals between the draft and the upcoming Trade Deadline, where the Nationals seem primed to be sellers. Their Farm System could look very different by early August, helping the future of the team look very bright.