Christian Walker and the State of the First Base Free Agent Market

It's no secret that first base has been a bit of a black hole for the Nationals in recent seasons. It's arguably a position Washington hasn't had locked down since Adam LaRoche's departure a decade ago, depending on whether we're counting the injury-plagued home stretch of Ryan Zimmerman's career or a brief string of dominance by Howie Kendrick.

Perhaps that's selling the aforementioned duo short, especially since they were typically complimented by serviceable left-handed sluggers, most notably Matt Adams. Still, those late-2010s teams didn't exactly have a surefire anchor at first base.

We all know what the real conversation is, though. Since the World Series, aside from a season and a half of a resurgent Josh Bell, the Nationals have been what the kids call "unserious" at this position.

Eric Thames? Dominic Smith? Joey Gallo? All of them were pretty disgustingly unproductive during their time in Washington. Even Joey Meneses, who was shockingly impressive for the final two months of 2022, eventually came crashing back down to Earth.

That, in fact, raises a broader point about how the designated hitter role has generally been equally a turnstile, and the team has also had an overall lack of power hitters. But nevertheless, let's focus back on this one position. After all, I'd still argue that it's been the front office's most egregious oversight - or in some cases, frustrating series on fake patchwork efforts.

If the Nationals want to seriously address first base, there are some appealing options this offseason. The first and most obvious is division rival and Home Run Derby king Pete Alonso. He'll turn 30 years old this December and is coming off likely his least productive season as a big leaguer, but even exceeds anything any National did at the plate in 2024.

His slugging ability is clearly where his appeal is. Aside from the shortened 2020 season, Alonso has never hit fewer than 34 home runs in a season. Respectfully, no current National has even sniffed that total - their collective highest season total is 20 (CJ Abrams this year) - and that's what Alonso does in a bad year.

With that said, I'd imagine Alonso's market outprices Mark Lerner, Mike Rizzo and company. So instead, let's focus on something more realistic.

That's right, the Nationals have an opportunity to stick it to their Beltway rival by signing one of its former top prospects. Current Diamondbacks slugger Christian Walker is a bit inferior to Alonso from the batter's box and more than three years older, but that's also why he's a more realistic target.

Not for nothing, Walker has been 20 percent better than the average hitter at the plate in each of the last three seasons. He's also as good as they come defensively at first base, winning the Gold Glove award in 2022, 2023 and possibly again this season.

It's very possible - if not likely - that his best years are coming to a close, but that will make him considerably more affordable and a shorter-term commitment than Alonso. But by how much? That's the most important question.

Anything beyond four years for Walker seems risky, and even four might be playing with fire. Nonetheless, even that would be a refreshing change of pace from a franchise that hasn't "taken a swing" on a bat since... Daniel Murphy in 2016? Does three years for $37.5 million even counts as that? They traded a lot to acquire Adam Eaton, but that wasn't a large financial investment, and it was also for more than his bat. You get the idea!

After Walker, there's very little upside available on the free agent market. The next best player in that regard might be Ryan O'Hearn, who has an $8 million club option that might be exercised. After him, other possibilities include players in their late-30s or older and regressing in productivity such as Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu and Yuli Gurriel. To be candid, any of these options would feel disappointing and like more of the same trend - just good enough to put on a poster, but still penny pinching.

The previously mentioned Josh Bell has some level of appeal, especially after a strong second half of 2024, and considering his familiarity and success in Washington not long ago. Cody Bellinger is also a logical option with positional flexibility, including more than serviceable ability in all three outfield spots. But buyer beware: he is a Scott Boras client, and although he's been anywhere between above average and elite for most of his career, his performance in 2020 and 2021 was pretty putrid. He would also have to opt to turn down the remaining two years and $50 million left on his contract.

I'll also float out the Juan Soto possibility, but there's a much larger conversation to be had about him. I'm also not convinced he would be open to signing somewhere that would immediately require him to play first base regardless - not that Washington definitely would either, but within the context of this first base discussion, that's what would be required.

There's a clear and obvious need for the Nationals to address first base somehow, unless they're way more comfortable than they should be with Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro. But how far will they go? Will they sign another cheap flier, or will they finally take a big swing on a big bat?