Exploring the return in a potential Jeimer Candelario trade
A Jeimer Candelario trade seems imminent, let's write about what the Nats might be getting in return
Let's be honest, while it is easy to love what Jeimer Candelario has done for the Nationals this season, you guys know there is only one way his stay in Washington DC is going to finish: being traded to a contender as Mike Rizzo understands the return for flipping Candelario will be best for the team he has being working with since 2007.
To understand what that return would be, you have to find examples of third basemen with expiring contracts and similar production like Candelario in previous MLB trade deadlines, so we can set the bar for what kind of talent the Nationals could be getting in exchange.
The sample I used was between 2018-2022 and I found three players:
Eduardo Escobar, traded in July 27, 2018 to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the Minnesota Twins
His production before the trade: .274/.338/.514, 125 wRC+, 2 OAA, 3 fWAR.
His 2018 salary: 4,85 MM.
The return for the Twins: OF Ernie De La Trinidad (A+), OF Gabriel Maciel (single A) and RHP Jhoan Durán (single A).
Ernie De La Trinidad was an unranked prospect in 2018, so he was basically packed in the trade alongside Gabriel Maciel, the D-Backs #10 prospect and Jhoan Durán, the #16. The two outfielders haven't played professional baseball in 2023, while Durán has given quite the return to the Twins being an elite closer since he made his debut in 2022.
Kris Bryant, traded in July 30, 2021 by the Chicago Cubs to the San Francisco Giants
His production before the trade: .267/.358/.503, 131 wRC+, -1 OAA, 2.6 fWAR.
His 2018 salary: 19.5 MM.
The return for the Cubs: OF Alexander Canario (A+) and RHP Caleb Kilian (AA).
Alexander Canario was the #14 Giants prospect and he posted a .899 OPS in two across A+, AA and AAA. A LIDOM (Dominican Winter League) season ending injury in December 2022 that required a surgery has slowed down his production in 2023, but he has only played 25 games, so, he'll be back to normal, eventually. He is the #10 prospect in the Cubs farm.
Caleb Kilian has been playing mostly in AAA, with some ocassional starts in MLB.
Brandon Drury, traded in August 2nd, 2022 by the Cincinnati Reds to the San Diego Padres
His production before the trade: .274/.335/.520, 131 wRC+, 0 OAA, 2.7 fWAR.
His 2022 salary: 700,000.
The return for the Reds: SS Víctor Acosta (Rookie).
Víctor Acosta was the #20 prospect in the San Diego farm in 2021, a list that featured McKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III, Luis Campusano and Ryan Weathers in the top five spots, so, that #20 would have been easyly a #15 in another team's farm.
Actually, Acosta is the #12 prospect in the Reds ranking, a list that features Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnación-Strand, Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier, all included in the MLB Top 100 prospects ranking.
Now, let's see how Jeimer numbers ranks between this group
PLAYERS | BA | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | OAA | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candelario | .254 | .333 | .474 | 116 | 6 | 2.7 |
Escobar | .274 | .338 | .514 | 125 | 2 | 3 |
Bryant | .267 | .358 | .503 | 131 | -1 | 2.6 |
Drury | .274 | .335 | .520 | 131 | 0 | 2.7 |
While Jeimer has provided less offensive value, he has been the biggest defensive performer in the group and that's why his overall production is similar to the group above.
I took a look on the farms of all the teams that have been linked to the Nationals in a potential trade rumors involving Jeimer Candelario and these are the players I consider the opposing teams would be putting on the negotiation table or the ones Mike Rizzo would be asking for:
1- Miami Marlins
RHP Karson Milbrandt, A+, Marlins #15 prospect
MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Baseball America Grades
50/Extreme | Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55
2- Milwaukee Brewers
2B/SS Robert More, A+, Brewers #8 prospect
MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades
Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 45 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45
Baseball America Grades
45/High | Hitting: 50 | Power: 40 | Speed: 55 | Fielding: 55 | Running: 50
3- New York Yankees
RHP Yoendrys Gómez, AA, Yankees #9 prospect
MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Baseball America Grades
45/High | Fastball: Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 50
4- Philladelphia Phillies
SS William Bergolla, Single A, Phillies #11 prospect
MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades
Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
Baseball America Grades
50/Extreme | Hitting: 55 | Power: 35 | Speed: 60 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 55