Four Immediate Questions The Nationals Still Need To Answer
The Nationals have more reason for optimism about their future now than they have had in the past couple seasons after several trades and high draft picks have skyrocketed their farm system from bottom dweller to top 10 in baseball. In spite of that, however, the current product on the field leaves a lot to be desired as they currently sit 20 games under .500 and just one game ahead of the Colorado Rockies for the worst record in the National League. While this would normally not be the end of the world, the new draft lottery rules prevent the Nationals from picking in the lottery in back-to-back seasons after they just selected 2nd overall this past MLB Draft. Long story short, they won't be rewarded for their poor finish in the standings.
Those prospects acquired via trade and the draft, while promising, are still at least two years away from debuting for the big league club which leaves plenty of games to be played from now until then. The Nationals will need to address issues with their team this season and beyond if they hope to avoid being a bottom dweller for the next couple seasons and if they hope to expedite their rebuild.
From the farm system to the Major League club, and from the ownership to management, there are plenty of questions the Nationals will need to answer before they hope to return to a legitimate contender with the next great Nationals team.
When will the Nationals sign Dylan Crews?
After selecting the LSU phenom and Golden Spikes award winner with the 2nd overall pick earlier this month, it is safe to say he is the most anticipated Nationals' draft prospect in quite some time. One obstacle remains, however: when will they actually sign him?
The Nationals have signed both their second round pick, Yohandy Morales, and their third round pick, Travis Sykora, both to overslot deals. Thankfully, they signed most of their later round draft picks to underslot deals to save money in order to facilitate their overslot deals. So far, it has been a good plan, but the plan is all for nothing if they fail to sign Dylan Crews.
There isn't any immediate reason to panic or believe the Nationals won't sign Dylan Crews, but all fans with have a sense of relief when that news breaks that the Nationals and Crews have agreed to a deal and Crews has signed.
As we noted yesterday, the expectation is that Dylan Crews will get right above slot value for the No. 2 pick ($8,998,500). This gets a bit confusing because some places round up and say the slot value is an even $9 mil. But even a $9 mil bonus would be above. https://t.co/vnuLqHkj1P
— Jesse Dougherty (@dougherty_jesse) July 18, 2023
Skenes signing with the Pirates already naturally has Nats' fans a bit antsy for Crews to sign. To go overslot on Crews, the Nationals will likely need to exceed $9 Million. According to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, the Nationals can offer just over $9 Million, which is cutting it close but should be enough to get the job done.
When will the Nationals get sold?
This is a question that might not be quite as immediate of an answer, as much of the hold up with finding a buyer and potential sale revolves around the situation with the MASN TV rights and how much revenue that will generate going forward. Without a clear idea of TV rights, it will be near impossible for a new buyer to have certainty in their purchase but also near impossible for the Lerner Family to get close to their asking price.
That being said, the MASN situation has never looked closer to a resolution than it does at this current point in time. Last month, the Orioles and Nationals agreed on a settlement for 2012-2016, which totaled $100 Million. They will still need to sort out the next half decade of TV rights, but with an agreement in place to settle the first five years, in theory, the next five years should be easier to figure out without having to go through multiple court appeals over several years.
As far as potential buyers, it seems like Ted Leonsis and Monumental Sports are still the favorite to purchase the franchise, especially after Leonsis sold a portion of Monumental Sports to a Qatari Sports fund last month. Typically, you don't see owners do that unless they need a fresh influx of cash in order to make another large purchase.
What will the Nationals do at the trade deadline?
From less immediate to much more immediate, the Nationals have another large decision to make when it comes to this year's trade deadline which is in 12 days on August 1st. In the past couple of seasons, the Nationals have been the trade deadline catalyst for all of baseball with major firesales that have reshaped not only their own roster but the rosters of contenders. Will they have another firesale this season?
The biggest difference between this season and the previous two seasons is the lack of a superstar trade piece like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner or Juan Soto. However, they do have some pieces that they could flip in order to get something in return for players who either won't be around next season or when the next competitive Nationals' team arrives in a couple of years.
Players like Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas and even Ildemaro Vargas could be attractive bats to contenders while relievers like Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan might be on teams' radars to shore up their bullpen. Thomas is probably the least likely to be traded as he has multiple years left on his deal and the Nationals likely value him higher than other team's would due to his statistical outlier of a season and bit of luck to his success, with an unsustainable .390 BABIP. Edwards Jr. and Harvey also present issues as they are both currently on the injured list. It is not impossible to move them, as the Nationals traded Kyle Schwarber while he was on the injured list just a couple of years ago, but it does minimize the potential return.
Candelario is the most likely to get traded as he is on an expiring contract and having a career season both offensively and defensively. GM Mike Rizzo needs to capitalize on having one of the most desirable bats on the trade market and flip Candelario for more controllable assets. But will he go all in and trade everything that is not nailed to the floor, like he has in past years to much success, or will he stop at the expiring deals?
How long of a leash do Davey Martinez and the staff have?
This question likely ties directly to the ownership situation, but it is a question the Nationals need to be asking themselves immediately.
The roster is not strong, everyone knows that, but the decision-making and player development at the Major League level are head-scratching to say the least. Davey Martinez has been the manager for nearly 6 full seasons and his only winning record is the 2019 World Series champion team, the same one that started 19-31. How long does the World Series win spare Martinez?
At some point, you have to start seeing results. If the Nationals lose over 100 games again, what reason is there to keep Martinez around other than he's a nice guy and the players like him? A nice guy doesn't necessarily make a good manager, especially when the staff he has assembled like Jim Hickey and Darnell Coles have seemingly done more harm than good. Coles in particular has led to multiple young players regressing offensively such as Luis Garcia and Keibert Ruiz with his emphasis on groundballs and making contact instead of launch angle and making quality contact.
Martinez has struggled in his tenure to make the tough decisions and there are plenty of tough decisions that need to be made during a rebuild. Is he really the guy to lead this team through it?