Is Juan Yepez The First Baseman Of The Nats Future?

First base is famously the easiest position to field in baseball. You don't notice your typical first baseman on defense, because they don't do much. It's so easy, in fact, that you can get just about anybody to learn first base in a day or two and run them out there in a big league game, no problem. Convert anybody with a bad glove to first base, be they infielder, outfielder, catcher, ex-pro cricket player. What about the fans in the stands? They'll do just fine. Baseball is mostly a game of standing around, and the first baseman is the champion of just standing there. There's a famous quote that says "It's incredibly easy" about first base. Or something like that, I can't quite remember how it goes.

The defensive end doesn't matter, or it may as well not matter based on the list of error-prone behemoths that MLB teams employ at the cold corner. If Adam Dunn can play 500 games as a big league first baseman, that's evidence enough that what you do on offense is much more important. Historically, the Nationals have had solid, run-producing performances from their first basemen ever since Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson manned the station. That lasted until just recently, and now the position is in an extreme state of uncertainty for the club.

Joey Meneses was incredible when he replaced Juan Soto on the roster in 2022 and hit as if he were Juan Soto for two months. Shortly thereafter, it was revealed that Meneses' ability to siphon hitting abilities from Juan Soto was merely a temporary blessing. Meneses struggled through a much less impressive 2023 season, but his poor hitting as a DH was overshadowed by even worse numbers throughout the lineup, especially by Dominic Smith. Meneses replaced Smith at first base for this season but had been an absolute nightmare at the plate before finally being optioned with a .231/.291/.302 line at the plate. Goodness, that is a horrific slugging percentage. Juan Soto is doing better than ever, for what that's worth.

Goodbye, Joey, and may your memories of 2022 never fade. It seems unlikely that the Nationals would call his number again, but he remains on the 40-man roster and could be recalled in case of an injury. His days as a full-time starter may be over, though, and that means it's time to meet a new all-bat no-glove journeyman type, because that's what a team does when they need a first baseman. Welcome to DC, Juan Yepez.

Juan Yepez slugged .447 as a 24-year old rookie for the Cardinals, but there was no room for him in that organization once he slumped even a little bit. Now, he's the Nationals first baseman and he just might stick there for a little while. He came up from Rochester and got scorching hot immediately - his 15-game hitting streak fresh out of the minors was incredible and only was stopped by Dylan Cease tossing an unreal no-hitter. With two-plus weeks of hitting .350/.409/.583, Juan Yepez has earned an everyday spot in the middle of the Nats order for the rest of the season.

Yepez is hitting like a true first baseman. He's doing everything well offensively, and it's an extreme contrast to what Meneses could do for half of the season. It's a perfect situation for him right now, because Meneses isn't much of a threat to return and there's essentially zero prospects who will be ready to challenge Yepez now or next season. The Nationals have spent scarcely in recent free agencies, and depending on how Yepez finishes this season the Nationals will have to decide whether he needs competition for his job in spring training.

By next year, I could imagine another Yepez-type joining the organization, a minor league free agent or another castaway. There's no chance that the team makes a splash for a Pete Alonso or a Paul Goldschmidt in free agency, and they probably wont have their eyes on Christian Walker or old friend Josh Bell either. It's not impossible they sign someone above Yepez on the depth chart, but their money is better spent elsewhere. That leads us to, well, Juan Yepez: First Baseman Of The Future. The rebuild doesn't hang in the balance here, but it's not unimportant. Yohandy Morales at AA doesn't look ready for full-time action any time soon. Juan Yepez is up and hitting right now, in the present.

Whether it's Yepez, Morales, A free agent, or a Meneses-esque Joe Random, a good bat is crucial for this team to ascend. The pitching staff has been improving, the star prospects are on an upward trajectory, but they can't become a winning club on their own. They need role players to generate a floor of production so the stars can truly succeed; if a Joey Meneses is slugging .302 in the cleanup spot, things can crumble quickly. The current trade deadline frenzy may appear enormously consequential for the future of the Nationals, but trading veterans for low-tier prospects doesn't actually move the needle all that much. Finding a solid contributor at a position with zero depth is more important.

So, will Yepez actually be good? He's been just okay in 120 career MLB games over 3 seasons, with 16 home runs and a 111 OPS+. That's much better than Joey Meneses' 73 OPS+ this season, but it could be better for the standards of the position. I don't want to throw cold water on Yepez' blazing hot streak, but he's not a legitimate standout in any one way. Players like Yepez get hot from time to time, and just as often they get just as cold. We saw that with Meneses this season and it would be unwise to ignore the lesson that Joey was so graciously teaching us: streaky first baseman are only good for one year. Well, maybe that's not it. Righty First Baseman Are Streaky. That's closer. How about this: Don't Trust Rookie First Baseman To Maintain Their Slugging Percentage. That one's a bit too wordy. You get the point.

Honestly, I don't think Yepez is the chosen one, and I'm not especially optimistic that Yohandy Morales is any better. The Nationals will play the hot hand at first while cementing their young talent into the more important positions. That means Yepez is liable to be cut at any time and replaced by Joey Meneses V3.0, followed by another, and then another. By 2027 or 2028 the team may be in the position to win more games than they lose in the first half, which means they can simply trade for a veteran first baseman to hopefully do what Yepez is doing right now. This year, they're sellers outside of the playoff picture, so they can give Juan Yepez just enough time to prove me wrong.