Nationals Prioritize Tools Over Polish In Intriguing 2024 Draft Class

Sitting at the #10 spot in last weekend's MLB Draft, Mike Rizzo saw a world of possibilities before him. Unlike a year prior, there were no surefire impact players available for an easy selection in the first round, so Rizzo and a revamped scouting department had to make a tough choice, a choice that would shape the rest of the first round. Seaver King's name was unexpectedly called, a college bat expected to fall several spots past the Nationals, and that move only began a busy night of wheeling and dealing for the rebuilding Nats.

Seaver King is the most important name and most likely upcoming big leaguer that the Nats drafted, of course, but what the team did in the following rounds is even more intriguing. King probably didn't expect to be selected as high as #10, meaning the Nationals created an opportunity to save bonus pool money to be used on high-profile selections in the later rounds. After acquiring the 39th pick from the Royals just before the draft, there was the hope that the Nats would walk away with not one, but three first-round-worthy prospects.

It was a long wait from picks #10 to #39, and there's no telling what names were being considered in the Nats draft room. In the end, college catcher Caleb Lomavita and high school shortstop Luke Dickerson were called upon to form a trio of high-rated prospects along with King. We don't know yet precisely what bonus money was spent where, but it's likely that Dickerson was the key prospect that the Nats targeted with an over slot bonus. Players in the 3rd round and later may have been lured with over slot bonuses as well, but there weren't any major names falling after the first 50 or so picks in what wasn't an especially strong draft class.

Here's the long and short of it: the Nats haven't knocked the draft out of the park, nor have they made any absolutely befuddling mistakes. Seaver King was a justifiable pick that was seen as a slight reach, but a reasonable one, considering that any names on the board ranked above him have as many strengths and weaknesses as King, and no obvious superstar was overlooked. College bats Braden Montgomery, James Tibbs III, and Cam Smith were ranked higher than King by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus, but not by a massive amount.

Bryce Ranier, who was selected by the Tigers just after King, was also seen as a better prospect and would have fit the Nationals tendencies to target high school bats, as many expected Konnor Griffin or Rainer to end up in Washington. Griffin was the one more directly linked to the Nats, and he went off the board one pick prior, and that perhaps led the Nats to pivot towards Seaver King. King is the second consecutive college bat that the Nationals have used their first round pick on, after taking high school hitters in the previous two drafts. The strategy of reaching down for King, saving some bonus money, and swinging big in the 2nd round made a lot of sense for this draft class, with a long list of mid-tier names and no obvious pecking order after the top ~7 picks.

Should any of Montgomery, Tibbs, Smith, Rainer, or a few other first rounders down the board end up taking a star turn while Seaver King struggles, it would be easy to say that Rizzo and Co. have made an unforced error. Realistically, at least one of the first-rounders selected after King will probably become a major name, and it could look foolish in retrospect, but there's no way to divine the perfect strategy day-of. Seaver King isn't exactly a Dylan Crews-level star in the making, but his raw tools and talent are absolutely there. It's not clear what his defensive home will be, or what kind of hitter he will be, but it's not hard to see a productive big leaguer of some mysterious shape and size within his toolbox. Plus, King's versatility could end up fitting in perfectly alongside Crews, CJ Abrams, James Wood, and maybe Jacob Young on future Nationals teams, and that's something that Montgomery or Tibbs would be less able to provide.

Caleb Lomavita is an even more interesting prospect, with regards to both his prospect profile and his eventual fit with the Major League club. While King will fit in easily because of his versatile defending, Lomavita projects to stay behind the dish as an do-it-all catcher, though he does have the skills and athleticism to potentially handle other defensive positions. Both players will require significant development as hitters; each easily have the strength and athleticism to be MLB regulars, but their upsides are limited by King's groundball tendencies and Lomavita's hyper-aggressive approach. These aren't ready-made, polished players on either side of the ball. The best possible outcomes for both players would involve average or above average contributions with hit, power, speed, and defensive tools, but there are real downsides for them that they never figure out how to be major contributors.

Lomavita is likely several years away from MLB action, especially because he is relatively new to being a catcher, but that still clearly conflicts with Keibert Ruiz's 8-year extension that could keep him in D.C. until 2032 with two club options. The Nationals have generally struggled to develop catcher depth going back over a decade, and with Lomavita's selection along with 3rd-round catcher Kevin Bazzell, a solid college prospect in his own right, the team is making an aggressive attempt to remedy their organization-wide issues at the most important defensive position. Ruiz has certainly struggled this season, and even if his offense improves the team may benefit from a decrease in Keibert playing time and adding some fresh names to what is becoming a stale catching mix.

Its difficult to expect too much from Luke Dickerson, whether you're doing a deep dive on his scouting reports or just looking at his future value grades. He possesses high school Mike Trout level power, whose single season home run record in New Jersey he apparently tied. What his young stardom says about his MLB future will be up to him and the Nats development staff, but it did make him worthy of a 2nd-round look in the eyes of several evaluators. The Nats decision makers must have liked Dickerson quite a bit, as he is likely getting most of the bonus pool money saved by the Seaver King pick. He may turn into a force eventually, but it was clear at that point in round 2 that there were no instant top prospects. The farm system has not been reshaped overnight, and with two infielders and two catchers making up the first four selections, the pitching depth in the organization has been relatively untouched.

Fourth-round selection Jackson Kent was a successful college pitcher from a major baseball program and garnered some solid evaluations by scouts. After him, the Nats selected an additional ten consecutive college players, making Dickerson the lone high school standout in the draft class. Kent makes one of eight college pitchers selected from rounds 4 through 14, and ideally one or two of those pitchers can become valuable major league depth in time to support the young pitchers already in the bigs. That's the takeaway here: after focusing early on toolsy athletes and catchers, the team took several dart throws at pitching depth. There weren't a ton of major pitching names in this draft after Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, so it's reasonable that the Nationals went bat-heavy early on. That being said, the team has severely struggled on the mound during the rebuild, and with the improvements the pitching development staff has made this year it would be nice to add some legitimate young talent to arms like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker.

The Nationals competitive window is beginning to open right now, insofar as it ever will be open. This year's draft, and what will likely be a high slot in next year's, will be crucial. The team needs to spend in free agency to really burst forwards, but in a young players' league gathering young, cost-controlled contributors is just as important. Seaver King is the next big name for the young core of the future, and will join Brady House, Cade Cavalli, Dylan Crews, et cetera in the 2026+ Nationals teams of our dreams. I have reasonably high hopes for King, Lomavita and Dickerson, but there's no guarantee they're any better than their 2024 draft classmates. Hopefully they hit the ground running in their young professional careers.

You can view the whole Nats draft class here. It's unlikely that many day 2 or day 3 draftees end up being productive, but it's fun to wish cast based on their college statistics. Here's a glimpse: they were all good in college. How enticing! 6th- and 7th-rounders Davian Garcia and Robert Cranz look mighty interesting, to me at least. Let us know what you think of the Nats newcomers.