The Boston Red Sox have a tough road ahead of they want to sneak into the American League playoffs. They're currently 3.0 games back from a wild card spot and they still have the Mariners sitting in between them and the postseason.
The Washington Nationals will look to play the spoiler role against them in a mid-week interleague series, and I actually love their chances to do exactly that in the series opener on Tuesday night.
Let's dive into the odds for the game and then I'll break down why I think the Nats are the team to bet on tonight.
Red Sox vs. Nationals odds, run line, and total
Red Sox vs. Nationals prediction and pick
Do the Red Sox have the better record? Yes. Are they the better team? Yes. Do they deserve to be -165 road favorites tonight? Absolutely not.
Let's start off with the pitching matchup. If you're basing it off of ERA alone, the Nationals actually have the advantage with a Josiah Gray who has a 3.69 ERA compared to the Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox has has an ERA of 4.16.
Then, if you look at the offensive numbers, the Red Sox don't have as big of an advantage as you might think. In fact, over the past 30 days the Red Sox rank 14th in OPS at .741. That's only a little bit ahead of the Nationals who come in at 16th with an OPS of .732.
This game is much more of a closer matchup than what meets the eye. So, I'll jump all over the Nats at +143 at home.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.