At this point, it's fair to say I talk about the Nationals' future a lot. Growing up in the 2012-2019 era of Nationals baseball caused me to be spoiled, and the rebuild has been a painful one. It is easy to dream about the future, with CJ Abrams, James Wood, and others including Dylan Crews with seemingly unlimited potential. Still, we also need to appreciate players on the current roster who could contribute to the next World Series team.
The bullpen is better than expected, even with the recent rough patch. Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey are two of the better relievers in baseball, with Dylan Floro having a great season, and Derek Law showing flashes. Jordan Weems and Tanner Rainey have struggled, but Rainey may be turning the corner.
This all goes to say the Nationals bullpen is not even close to making national headlines, but they deserve some credit for keeping us in a lot of ballgames. Other than Finnegan who I am a huge fan of and have written about before, including if he should be traded, Harvey was a fantastic grab by Mike Rizzo and the Nationals organization on the waiver wire after underperformance and injuries led to the Orioles giving up on him. Finnegan and Harvey both have been diamond-in-the-rough finds, so it's easy to overlook one of the most underrated Nationals on the team right now: a guy by the name of Robert Garcia.
After being selected by the Kansas City Royals in the 15th round of the 2017 MLB Draft out of UC Davis, Robert Garcia struggled in the minors in 2017, pitching to a 10.17 ERA in rookie ball allowing 81 hits in 54 innings. He rebounded with a solid season between rookie ball and low-A in 2018, before struggling in 2019 in high-A. Garcia missed the 2020 season due to the cancellation of the minor league season, and put up a 5.63 ERA pitching in AA during the 2021 season. After an up-and-down minor league career with Kansas City, Garcia thought it was time to call it quits. Believe it or not, he actually retired and took a desk job, before getting a text message from a friend and a call from his agent: he had been selected by the Miami Marlins in the Minor League Rule-5 draft, getting another chance to chase his dream.
After five years of grinding through the minor leagues, Garcia was once again stuck in AAA with the Marlins, pitching there in 2022 and 2023. After continuing to build on his successful fresh start in the Marlins organization, Garcia was rewarded with a call-up after pitching to a 2.95 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. After being called up on July 7th, he finally debuted on July 14th at Camden Yards only recording one out.
If his career was not already hectic enough, Garcia was placed on waivers by Miami after that one outing, and Washington claimed him on August 1st of last year. Garcia finished the season at the big leagues in Washington with a 3.69 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and 33 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. Garcia proved he was a big leaguer, and was a lock to make the 2024 roster.
Continuing the trend of his up-and-down career, Garcia’s numbers are not the prettiest to look at in 2024. He missed a chunk of the season on the IL with a bad case of the flu, has 3 losses on his record, and has an ugly ERA of 4.88. So, why do I think he is the most underrated National? Due to no one talking, or seemingly caring about the guy, and what the numbers say when you dive a little deeper.
The world of analytics. In no one am I an analytical nerd, but Garcia has clearly been one of the unluckiest relievers in all of baseball. His 4.88 ERA is insanely inflated, with his 2.56 FIP seeming a lot more in line. Garcia has struck out 44 batters in 31 1/3 innings and has allowed 3 home runs. The 6’4 28-year-old has increased his fastball usage to 56.8% this year, followed by his changeup at 25.8%, and his slider at 17.4%. Garcia’s expected ERA is 2.49, his chase rate is 32.7%, his hard hit rate is 30.9%, and his strikeout rate is 32.6%. That is not only good, but that is elite, ranking among the game's best including Chris Sale, and Garrett Crochet.
Garcia’s changeup is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, with an expected whiff rate of 34.4%. He is effective at getting both righties and lefties out, being a league-average pitcher against righties, and one of the toughest left-on-left matchups in the league.
Garcia will probably never become a household name, but Rizzo deserves more credit for finding another effective reliever who was being let go. Garcia may never be elite, but the analytics show that he should be in line for a big second half, and hopefully career in Washington.
Advanced statistics gathered from Baseball Savant.