The Nationals' Coaching Conundrum: Evaluating the team's staff in 2024

Nationals fans likely did a double take on August 14, 2024, when manager Davey Martinez announced that every coach on the team's Major League staff had renewed their contracts for the 2025 season. Of course, not every bad team's issue is just their coaching staff, but the performance on the field as a result of the Nationals' coaching philosophy has long been a point of contention within the Nationals fanbase.

A good place to start is the hitting. The presence of Darnell Coles on the coaching staff frequently makes many of us question just how far behind the analytics curve the Nationals are. Since Coles' hiring prior to the 2022 season, the Nationals have the second-highest ground ball rate in the major leagues at 45.8%, surrounded by such offensive juggernauts as the Marlins and White Sox. That might not be quite so bad, if their average exit velocity as a team wasn't also third-worst in baseball. Yes, the Nationals do not strike out much. They put the ball in play. But what has bitten them time and again is that those balls in play are not strong contact. They're also not working walks--FanGraphs' BB%+ metric, which normalizes walk rate to an average of 100, rates the Nats at just 87 over the last three seasons. Last season they climbed to 93, but one thing certainly seems evident--Coles' coaching philosophy is prioritizing not striking out over the now more widely-adopted method of taking your chances on strikeouts and driving the ball when you get the chance. (Russell A. Carleton at Baseball Prospectus wrote a fantastic piece on this subject last month.)

On the pitching end of the spectrum, things have improved. The addition of Sean Doolittle to the coaching staff as the club's pitching strategist acted as an appropriate foil to the pitching coach Jim Hickey, as the Nationals' pitching made huge strides forward from an abysmal 2023 campaign. One facet in particular, home runs allowed, was a massive improvement--the 2023 staff, which yielded the worst homer rate in baseball, gave way to a 2024 team which was in the top third of the league in preventing the long ball. Doolittle is rightfully a District legend, and now he's making a name for himself in the dugout.

Despite a strong 96 FIP- (where 100 is average, and lower is better), the Nationals still had an above-average ERA, likely due to the team's defensive issues. CJ Abrams, as athletic as ever, still has not found his stride at shortstop. He'll continue getting opportunities at the position, as the Nationals don't have anyone else coming up that could challenge him for that job, but third base coach Ricky Gutierrez needs to unlock something in Abrams in order for him to become a force in the field. CJ ranked in the 1st percentile in baseball last year in Statcast's Fielding Run Value with -17, and the rest of the team hasn't fared much better: FanGraphs Defensive Runs Above Average places the Nationals at 4th worst in the league.

The outfield is somewhat less of a concern right now. Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions conducted an excellent interview with Platinum Glove candidate Jacob Young in July in which Young credits first base coach and outfield defensive coordinator Gerardo Parra for aiding in his philosophy in the field. James Wood graded poorly in Fielding Run Value in left field, but he's a young player still finding his footing in a position he barely played until this season in Triple-A.

Catching coach Henry Blanco had his hands full coming into this season, as under his watch the team fell to the worst framing mark in the majors in 2023. Since then, Keibert Ruiz became one of the last full-time catchers in the major leagues to adopt a one-knee-down stance behind the plate, and his framing rebounded. Granted, Ruiz and Blanco still have a long way to go--his blocking is still below average and his framing hasn't improved that much--but signs of positive progress have displayed themselves.

On the basepaths, Davey Martinez and his coaches have prioritized one thing: aggression. In September, the Nationals became the first team in the Majors to reach 200 stolen bases since the 2007 Mets, while also becoming the first AL/NL team in over a century to have at least 23 players steal a base over the course of a season. The results were mixed: the Nationals led the leagues in stolen bases, but also led the league in times caught stealing by a much wider margin. Going 223-for-296 (75.3%) was a much shakier success rate than the next closest team in steals, the Brewers, who returned an 83.8% safety mark. That gave them 14.4 weighted stolen base runs as a team, while the Nationals sat at a meager 4.0. Part of the issue is the rookie first base coach in Parra, who needs to be more proactive in calling runners back when a pitcher makes a move over to first base. New rules in the majors do dictate a limit on the number of times a pitcher can perform a pickoff move, yes, but if the team's players can't get back to first base, they can't take advantage of them. Nationals baserunners were on the wrong side of a pickoff 27 times this season, more than any other team in baseball. Even as someone who loves the stolen base and wants players to run as frequently as possible, these are free outs that cannot be given away.

Ultimately, the Nationals' core is still young. Many of these coaches have only joined the organization within the last three years, but the on-field product has left much to be desired. Fundamentals are still key--we're still grounding out a ton, still making silly mistakes on the bases, and not turning enough routine plays. As ever, please direct any feedback to me at my Twitter @TheOttSpot, or District on Deck's Twitter account @DistrictOnDeck. We'd all love to hear your thoughts on what the Nationals can do on the coaching end of things to improve in 2025 and beyond.