Washington Nationals: Ranking the Positions of Need
The Nationals were a surprise to many last season, but now are a surprise for their relatively quiet offseason. Of all of their areas of need, what positions are most important?
The Nationals are a team in-between. On one hand, the team vastly exceeded expectations last season en route to a 71 win season, putting them ahead of pace in many people's minds. On the other hand, they are still very much a rebuilding team and have many areas to address before they are competitive again.
If you ask Nationals fans, I do not think many would be surprised at the team's quiet offseason to this point. Between the recent historical trends of cutting costs and the Lerner Ownership group actively attempting to sell the franchise to no avail and subsequently being checked out mentally in the process, it is almost logical that the Nationals are not making big splashes.
Nevertheless, it is not like the Nationals are incapable of spending or should not spend. One recent example would be the Kansas City Royals offseason this year, engaging in the mid-tier pitching market to revitalize their team without committing a significant amount of money long term. The Nationals would be wise to do the same in an effort to replicate the results of the Jeimer Candelario signing, who excelled in his half season in DC prior to being traded in exchange for more controllable assets, one of which looks to be an viable arm for the near future in DJ Herz.
While we are nearing the middle of January, there are still plenty of Free Agents available who could boost the Nationals into the next tier towards contention. Here are the rankings for the areas of need:
5. Second Base
The Nationals have a couple of options at Second Base, but none of them are all that convincing at the moment.
The incumbent is, of course, Luis Garcia who has been with the team off and on for the past four seasons now. Garcia struggled mightily in 2023 prior to a surprising demotion to AAA Rochester in early August. It later came out that the Nationals had issues with Garcia's focus and preparation, which puts his future with the team in doubt. Nevertheless, he is still on the roster and penciled into a starting spot.
The other options are even less convincing than Garica. Nasim Nuñez was recently selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but projects more as a back-up, defensive replacement and pinch runner than an everyday guy. Beyond that you have to venture to the Minor Leagues, where Trey Lipscomb is likely the top option but might not be ready just yet.
Second Base is not the most pressing need at the moment, but this time next season it arguably could be. They likely won't address it this year, so it comes in at 5 in our rankings.
Possible Fits: Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Schoop, Kolten Wong
4. Bullpen
This is the low hanging fruit and applies to about 28 of the 30 teams, but the Nationals still have a clear divide in their bullpen.
On the top end side, they have some guys - some arms that have proven capable of locking down games and performing in high leverage situations. Players like Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Jordan Weems and Mason Thompson, who I expect to bounce back in 2024 with proper usage, are all quality arms in the Nationals' bullpen.
The issue was that Davey Martinez rode these arms a lot, as he has done historically, and it led to overuse and subsequent injury and poor performance. The Front Office's job, should they choose to accept, is to bridge the gap between the 'A' Bullpen and the 'B' Bullpen so that if the Nationals find themselves in a litany of one run, close games again this season, they will have better depth and be more prepared.
The Nationals did sign Dylan Floro earlier this offseason, which was a savvy move as he is a great bounce-back candidate, but they could still use more, particularly in the Left-Handed reliever department. Every arm helps and the Nationals could use it.
Possible Fits: Matt Moore, Wandy Peralta, Jake Diekman
3. Starting Pitcher
Have the Nationals improved their pitching staff over the past couple seasons? Yes. Are they still one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball? Also yes.
Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore are a great start, but they would not be enough even if they were not going through their early-career struggles. Gray was an All Star last season, but struggled in the second half before salvaging his season en route to a sub 4 ERA to lead the staff. Gore flashed his potential as a rookie, but still struggles with command and putting away hitters consistently. Both are a part of the future, but both are not particularly close to reliable just yet.
The rest of the staff is rough. Patrick Corbin at the very least ate innings last year, but still posted an ERA above 5 and is still the worst pitcher in baseball since 2020. One more year, folks.
The Trevor Williams starter turned reliever turned back into a starter experiment could not have gone any worse. The Nationals thought they could outsmart other teams and make Williams a viable starter when everyone else saw him better as a reliever. Turns out the other teams were right. Who could have seen this coming.
The rest of the options are fine, but no one stands out as a 3/4 option in a staff and certainly not as a frontline option. Jake Irvin was a nice surprise and emerged as serviceable 5 starter. I am sure we will see more of Joan Adon and Jackson Rutledge in 2024, but neither has secured a rotation spot yet and may not be ready to at this point.
The Free Agent starting pitching market is expensive, so it may be unrealistic based on the Nationals' recent habits. Both Corbin and Williams come off the books after this season so next offseason may be when the Nationals decide to address their rotation. If they were smart, they would get a head start on that effort now.
Possible Fits: Michael Lorenzen, Alex Wood, James Paxton, Eric Lauer
2. Left Handed Hitting Outfielder
Putting this at the 2 spot leaves the obvious position for number 1, but the Nationals could use a Left Handed bat, particularly a power bat. They tried the Corey Dickerson route last season and it turned out poorly, but you can see the Nationals' desire to play matchups and platoon Left Field against Right-Handed and Left-Handed pitching matchups.
Stone Garrett will be back after a promising introduction to DC, and is a candidate to DH some for the Nationals given the current roster. So even if the Nationals went with a Right-Handed bat or a Left-Handed bat that proved serviceable against Left-Handed pitching, Garrett could still be a factor in the lineup.
Unfortunately, there are not a ton of great options in this regard. Cody Bellinger of course is available, but that does not seem remotely in the realm of possibilities for the Nationals. Joc Pederson also seems like a strong fit, but he, like 95% of the Free Agent class, is likely out of the Nationals' self-imposed price range. They need to find a Lefty and Power somewhere, so it would be great if they could find both in the same player. They just have to make the effort to do so.
Possible Fits: Joc Pederson, David Peralta, Joey Gallo
1. First Base/Designated Hitter
The position everyone had circled as soon as Dominic Smith was signed last offseason and subsequently released early this offseason - the Nationals need a legitimate answer at First Base.
The Nationals do not have anyone on their roster or even in the Minor Leagues that they can point to as even a candidate to fill that position for years to come. Joey Meneses is slotted in as the starting First Baseman just due to the sheer lack of options within the organization. They could move one of their higher touted prospects to First Base, but they might not want to do that until they have to.
The good news for the Nationals is that there are still options available in this respect. If they truly feel confident in Meneses' ability to fill the void at First Base, then they should take advantage and sign a legitimate DH option to provide the pop the lineup desperatly needs without having to worry about any possible defensive shortcomings. A player like Jorge Soler, a perennial 30 Home Run hitter, would make a lot of sense. But of course, he costs money.
Rhys Hoskins also makes a lot of sense for reasons I am sure everyone knows at this point. He's a younger, proven player, looking for a short term deal to prove he is healthy in hopes of securing a long term deal next offseason. He can be had for essentially a qualifying offer rate (1 year, ~$18M). That is a rate the Nationals should be all over.
Hoskins remains unsigned and the Nationals void at First Base remains unfilled. It would be great if they can make it happen, but they seem committed to punting on spending this offseason. Hopefully I am wrong.
Possible Fits: Rhys Hoskins, Joey Gallo, Brandon Belt, CJ Cron, Carlos Santana, Garrett Cooper, Joey Votto