The Nationals have not had a true ace in their rotation since the departure of Max Scherzer via trade, leaving the spot for Opening Day starter up to best pitcher available. After Patrick Corbin got the nod the past couple seasons despite subpar performance, who should get the nod this season?
Opening Day is more symbolic than anything, but in reality it is just one of at least 162 games that the team will play that season. Nevertheless, teams will typically put their best foot forward and start the season with their ace, or it some teams' case - whoever their best pitcher is, on the mound. Undoubtedly, the Nationals will attempt to do the same, but who is their best pitcher?
Max Scherzer filled the role of Opening Day starter for the Nationals for the better part of a decade. Since then, Opening Day has not had the same feel without the true ace of the rotation.
Patrick Corbin got the nod as Opening Day starter for the past couple of seasons, but that always felt more like a seasoned-veteran, longer-tenured National move as opposed to Corbin truly being the ace or leader of the pitching staff. The stats would suggest that it was very much not due to Corbin being the best pitcher in the rotation.
So will this be the year where Davey Martinez finally gives the Opening Day nod to the pitcher who deserves it the most as opposed to the pitcher who has just been here the longest? We can only hope.
So who is the most deserving pitcher? Let's take a look at the candidates.
The Longshots
Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, Zach Davies
Not only do I do I think there is no chance whatsoever that any of these pitchers are the Nationals' Opening Day starter, I would go as far as to say there is a likelihood that any or all of these pitchers do not finish the season with the Nationals.
Irvin is the "best" pitcher of the group, but has even hinted at his spot in the rotation not being secure. It is a bit surprising considering Irvin performed admirably last season following his call-up, but he was not the most consistent pitcher. Hypothetically if one or more pitchers emerged as capable starters, Irvin could be optioned back to AAA to work on some things. However, the Nationals pitching in their organization is not very deep, so I would expect Irvin to stay with the team unless something really goes wrong.
Trevor Williams would be the "Patrick Corbin" of the group in terms of being an MLB Veteran, and having made Opening Day starts previously in his career, but I think most Nationals fans would sooner kick Williams off the team than give him the ball for Opening Day. Last year's experiment of converting the once starter turned reliever back into a starter could not have gone worse and many are calling for Williams to return to his relief role as that is seemingly the only way to restore some value. It is unclear if the Nationals will do that, so I do expect Williams to remain in the rotation in the meantime. Perhaps when Cade Cavalli returns we can see a change.
Zach Davies is the odd man out here, but including him for the discussion in case he earns a roster spot out of camp and the Nationals do decide to put Williams in the bullpen at the start of the year.
The Dark Horse
MacKenzie Gore
Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals / Jess Rapfogel/GettyImages
MacKenzie Gore is a fascinating debate for the title of Opening Day starter. Of any pitcher in the rotation, or arguably even the bullpen included, Gore has the best stuff of anyone on the Nationals. Gore is pure firepower and electricity, which is awesome to see when it is controlled but not so much when it runs out of control.
Nevertheless, Gore has quickly emerged as a fan favorite for a team that historically has built itself on top tier pitching talent. Gore undeniably falls into that category, but certainly still has a ways to go before he cements himself as an ace or into the elite tier of MLB pitchers.
That being said, the "best" pitcher is subjective and an argument for Gore being the best is a strong one. There were several games last season where Gore absolutely dominated the game the way that only an MLB ace can truly do. In Spring Training, it seems Gore has been utilizing his powerful fastball higher in the zone than last season, leading to better results and more strikeouts. If that is a sign of things to come, then Gore could be poised for a breakout campaign.
Ultimately, I think Gore is more in a "wait and see" position and the Nationals won't give him the ball on Opening Day just yet. However, I do think there is a possibility that as the season progresses, we see Gore emerge as the number 2 and perhaps even the number 1 starter in the rotation.
The Incumbent
Patrick Corbin
As previously mentioned, Patrick Corbin has been the Nationals Opening Day starter for the past three seasons, large in part due to being the only veteran/recognizable name in the Nationals' rotation due to the trade of Max Scherzer and the career ending injury to Stephen Strasburg.
How has Corbin faired in those three Opening Day starts?
Not great.
Corbin is 0-3 in those three starts allowing 12 runs (10 earned) in 11.1 innings against the Dodgers, Mets and Braves respectively, good for an 8.10 ERA. Even by Patrick Corbin standards, that is abysmal.
Corbin did not pitch past 4.1 innings in any of those starts, which came against the Dodgers back in 2021. He pitched even less of the game in 2022 and 2023, only lasting 4 innings against the Mets in 2022 and 3 innings last year against the Braves. He gave up 6 hits, 5 hits and 7 hits in those starts.
So clearly the statistics do not suggest that Corbin should be the Opening Day starter, but Davey Martinez has given him that honor nonetheless. Martinez is big on "earning" it and typically gives more leash, or even favoritism, to the veterans on the team. Will Corbin get that in what is likely his final season with the team?
Despite being instrumental in winning the 2019 World Series, the Patrick Corbin era in DC has taken its toll on fans. Selecting him as this team's Opening Day starter would just be insult to injury.
The Favorite
Josiah Gray
Washington Nationals v Baltimore Orioles / Jess Rapfogel/GettyImages
The Nationals lone All-Star selection from a year ago, Josiah Gray enjoyed a strong season for the Nationals and was unquestionably their best pitcher. Now it did not come without some bumps in the road, but I was once told that bumpy roads lead to.... nevermind.
After a very rocky 2022 campaign that was effectively his rookie season, Gray started out the year very strong after a tough first start in a loss to the Braves in the first series of the season. Gray was lights out for the better part of two months, but of course struggled to get any run support from his offense. Nevertheless, Gray gave the Nationals a chance to win each time he took the ball, which is more than can be said for most of the pitchers in last year's rotation.
Gray's second half of the season was not as fruitful, as the month of August really inflated what was otherwise an incredible season. Gray had an 8.81 ERA in August, which ballooned his second half ERA to 4.76 as opposed to 3.41 in the first half.
When it was all said and done, Gray finished the season with a 3.91 ERA and an ERA below 4.28 in every month of the season aside from August, with three months below a 3.00 ERA. Some analytics may not be kind to Gray, but the results were there and it was a drastic improvement from his 2022 performance.
All things considered, Josiah Gray is the current favorite for the title of the Nationals' Opening Day starter and should absolutely get the nod.
