November 21 is the deadline to tender contracts to players on a Major League Baseball roster without a pre-existing guaranteed contract. Of course, that's not the deadline to come to an agreement on a salary; the tendering of a contract simply indicates intent to offer one, and if a team doesn't tender a contract to a major league player, he becomes a free agent. For players with fewer than 3 years of major league service, the process is rather simple; players under these criteria often simply have their contracts renewed for the league-minimum salary, which will be $780,000 annually in the 2026 season.
Players with at least three but fewer than six years of major league service and not already playing under a previously-agreed-upon contract extension are eligible for salary arbitration. Within this system, a player and his agency submit a value that the player deserves he should be paid in the coming season; the team he plays for does likewise. Both parties then meet with an arbitrator; an individual, often a labor lawyer, whose job it is to hear out the cases of both sides, then rule in favor of one side or the other. There is no awarding of a number anywhere in-between in these cases.
Arbitration disputes can often result in the disillusionment of players with their organizations, as the resolution requires teams telling a third party, in front of the player in question, why said player is less valuable and deserves to be paid less than he believes he should be. A key example of this comes from the 2022-23 offseason, when Corbin Burnes told reporters he was hurt by the Brewers' arguments as to why he should receive $740,000 less than his $10.75 million request just a season removed from winning the National League Cy Young Award in 2021.
Even last offseason, after the Nationals confusingly acquired Nathaniel Lowe from the Texas Rangers, Mike Rizzo's front office and Mark Lerner's ownership failed to come to an agreement before the deadline. The team took Lowe to arbitration over an $800,000 dispute between the two sides' salary requests, ultimately defeating the former Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Award winner and "only" being required to pay Lowe $10.3 million for the 2025 season. It was, to say the least, not the greatest first impression for a player the team actively sought to trade for.
For obvious reasons, teams generally prefer to avoid going to arbitration with their players. Lowe last offseason was one of just nine players in all of the majors to go through this process. Instead, arbitration-eligible roster members typically sign one-year contracts before the deadline to submit arbitration figures, mutually agreeing upon a salary with their major league clubs for the upcoming season. Salaries almost always increase year-over-year through arbitration (or avoidance of it), but under the CBA they can decrease by as much as 20% of the previous year's, or as much as 30% of the year's before that.
Eight members of the Nationals roster are arbitration-eligible this offseason:
SP MacKenzie Gore
4.000 years of service time; entering second year of arbitration eligibility; earned $2.89 million after avoiding arbitration with the team last offseason
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $6.5 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $4.7 million
2025 stats: 30 GS, 159.2 IP, 4.17 ERA (99 ERA-)/3.74 FIP (90 FIP-), 10.43 K/9 (career high), 3.61 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 1.35 WHIP, 17.8 K-BB% (career high), 2.9 fWAR; Selected to National League All-Star Team
Will he be tendered a contract?: Absolutely, even if the team intends to trade him this offseason. Such a trade is basically guaranteed to happen after contracts for next year are agreed upon.
2B Luis García Jr.
4.142 years of service time; entering third of four years of arbitration eligibility (was a Super 2 recipient in the 2023-24 offseason, garnering an extra year of arb-eligibility); signed a $4.5 million contract for the 2025 season to avoid arbitration
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $7.8 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $7 million
2025 stats: 139 G, 526 PA, .252/.289/.412 (91 wRC+), 16 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 14 SB, -17 DRS/-4 FRV, 0.7 fWAR; Posted highest launch angle, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate of career, as well as by far highest pull-air rate of career, significantly underperforming expected batting average and slugging rate (.300 wOBA was 48 points below expected)
Will he be tendered a contract?: I think so. García's clear willingness to move to first base if the team needs him to gives him versatility, and the team I imagine will prefer to let him improve his stock in the 2026 season and try to fulfill the expected numbers he returned in 2025 if they intend to trade him in the future rather than selling low on a bump in the road for the 25-year-old infielder. Lui's .348 xwOBA ranked in the 72nd percentile of all qualified hitters in 2025, and he improved the quality of his contact across the board without striking out more often. The Nationals notably don't have a ton of impact infielders knocking on the door of the major leagues; $7 million and change is ultimately not a hefty sum to pay.
SP Jake Irvin
2.152 years of service time; entering first of four years of arbitration eligibility as a Super 2 qualifier this offseason; played for just above the league minimum at $774,600 in 2025
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $3.5 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $3.3 million
2025 stats: 33 GS, 180 IP, 5.70 ERA (135 ERA-)/5.64 FIP (135 FIP-), 6.20 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.90 HR/9, 1.43 WHIP, 7.9 K-BB%, -0.4 fWAR
Will he be tendered a contract?: It's tough to say, but I'm leaning towards yes. MLB Trade Rumors does not identify Irvin as a non-tender candidate, for what it's worth. Also worth noting that teams do sometimes opt not to tender an arbitration-eligible player a contract to resign said player at a lower price later in the offseason, as the Nationals did with Kyle Finnegan last offseason. Irvin, importantly, still has two option years left, so the team will likely prefer to guarantee themselves to retain his presence in the organization even if it costs them $3.5 million to do so. Still, Irvin was, by many accounts, the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season, and his road to the Opening Day roster is much cloudier than it was heading into 2025.
SS CJ Abrams
3.13 years of service time; entering first year of arbitration eligibility this offseason; received $780,600 in 2025
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $5.5 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $5.6 million
2025 stats: 144 G, 635 P, .257/.315/.433 (107 wRC+), 19 HR, 92 R, 60 RBI, 31 SB, -6 DRS, -9 FRV, 3.1 fWAR; Selected to National League All-Star Team; Statcast identifies him as the 10th-most valuable baserunner out of 251 qualified players in 2025 at +7 runs generated on the basepaths
Will he be tendered a contract?: Yes, of course. There are questions about CJ's ultimate destiny with the Nationals, but those aren't going to be answered at the arbitration table. What to look for from him next season will have to be discussed another time.
SP Josiah Gray
4.075 years of service time; entering second year of arbitration eligibility; earned $1.35 million in 2025 after avoiding arbitration
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $1.35 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $1.35 million
Stats: Gray hasn't pitched in the majors since the start of April 2024 after partially tearing his UCL, making three rehab starts across three levels in September this year to the tune of 5.2 scoreless innings.
Will he be tendered a contract?: It's hard to imagine not. Gray's lack of work over the last two seasons has most experts projecting he'll simply agree to the same contract he received in 2025 for $1.35 million as a new front office regime tries to figure out what his role in the organization looks like going forward. Gray was a National League All-Star in 2023, but that doesn't paint a very clear picture of his performance even when healthy. The team will retain him while figuring out what a post-Tommy John Josiah Gray looks like.
C Riley Adams
3.171 years of service time; entering second of four years of arbitration eligibility after qualifying for Super 2 eligibility after the 2024 season; earned $850,000 after avoiding arbitration with the team for the 2025 season
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $1.9 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $1.5 million
2025 stats: 83 G, 286 PA, .186/.252/.308 (57 wRC+), 8 HR, 29 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB, -4 DRS, -8 FRV, -0.6 fWAR
Will he be tendered a contract?: It's questionable, but rather unlikely. Adams has no option years left, meaning that if the team retains him, they can't easily stash him at Triple-A Rochester for depth purposes, and entering his age-30 season coming off 83 games of some of the worst catcher production in baseball on both sides of the plate, his role as even a major league backup catcher seems pretty easy to replace. Adams is a career 78 wRC+ hitter who has never been worth positive value through framing, with a -36 fielding run value across 5 major league seasons. The Nationals may very well decide it's time to move on.
C Jorge Alfaro
5.133 years of service time; likely entering his final year of arbitration eligibility after previously avoiding it in 2021 with the Marlins and 2022 with the Padres; signed a major league contract for the league-minimum $760,000 in late 2025 and received a prorated portion scaled to the length of the season he was on the roster to the sum of approximately $145,000
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $1 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $1 million
2025 stats: 14 G, 39 PA, .256/.256/.308 (54 wRC+), 0 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB, -3 DRS, -3 FRV, -0.3 fWAR
Played 82 games with the Milwaukee Brewers Triple-A affiliate Nashville Sounds, hitting 15 HR with a .285 OBP and posting an 88 wRC+ there before being released on September 1
Will he be tendered a contract?: Almost certainly not. Alfaro was a desperation signing on September 2 to provide badly-needed catching depth at the major league level after all of the team's top three options at catcher hit the injured list. He performed basically to expectations, striking out 14 times in 39 plate appearances without walking or hitting a home run. Alfaro will be 33 in 2026, and the team will pursue other avenues to replenish its catching depth this offseason.
SP Cade Cavalli
2.141 years of service time; entering his first of four years of arbitration eligibility after qualifying for Super 2 eligibility (placed in the top 22% of service time among players with fewer than three years of service); earned the league-minimum $760,000 in 2025
Spotrac salary projection for 2026: $1.975 million
MLB Trade Rumors salary projection for 2026: $1.3 million
2025 stats: 10 GS, 48.2 IP, 4.25 ERA (101 ERA-)/4.53 FIP (109 FIP-), 7.40 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9, 1.48 WHIP, 11.4 K-BB%, 0.5 fWAR
Will he be tendered a contract?: Without a doubt. Cavalli, 27 this upcoming season, was once a top pitching prospect, but suffered a string of injuries from the end of 2023 to the start of 2024. Finally healthy, he spent most of the year at Triple-A Rochester building back up to a starter's workload before getting his first extended taste of the majors across August and September. The results weren't incredible, but Cade gave fans reason to hope, sitting 97 on his four-seam fastball and returning above-average raw Stuff+ values on all five of his unique pitches. The strikeout rate isn't yet where the team hopes it will end up, but he generates plenty of chase and will hopefully receive a better infield defense behind him to truly take advantages of what appears to be a top-tier ground ball rate.
That wraps up the eight Nationals players eligible for arbitration this offseason. Who do you think the team should tender a contract to? Do you agree or disagree with the salary projections provided here? Let me know on Twitter by tagging @TheOttSpot.