Race for the Roster: An early look at who could be in Washington on Opening Day

I want to preface this article by saying that this is not a place to hypothesize about potential free agent signings. Everything here is going to be entirely based on the Nationals' current roster, their upper minor league depth, and their top 30 prospects as determined by MLB Pipeline.

Let's get one thing out of the way: James Wood and Dylan Crews are going to be on the Opening Day roster, barring extenuating circumstances. The question is--who will join them? Jacob Young feels like a certainty, even if he's not starting, mostly because the current alternatives on the 40-man roster are Alex Call and Stone Garrett (who I do love, but he's going to need to have a hell of a spring to crack an already crowded Nationals outfield). A fourth outfielder, at least currently within the system, would likely be Robert Hassell III at this point. Jack Dunn is also a possibility; the 28-year-old utilityman was walking more than he was striking out at Triple-A for most of the year. Rizzo likes to sign his outfielders, though, and we can continue appealing to God above that Juan Soto dons the curly W next year.

Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz is an obvious pick for starting--you don't sign a guy to an eight-year extension and then give up on him this soon--but the question is who will back him up. Teams don't often start the season with three catchers on the active roster, and in the rare cases they do--I think back to the 2023 Houston Astros, with Martín Maldonado, Yainer Diaz, and César Salazar--it quickly becomes clear who the odd man out is (in the Astros' case, it was Salazar). The personal hope on this end is that the backup is Drew Millas, who has significantly better framing capabilities and has at least shown some flashes of being able to hit sustainably at the major league level. The front office seems enamored with Riley Adams, though, making this hard to project. At the very least, the odds are low that someone currently in Triple-A shocks us with this--C.J. Stubbs spent most of his time in the organization this year with Double-A Harrisburg, Brady Lindsly is reported as a solid fielder but has not hit enough to supplant that, and Jarrett Gonzales has spent so much time on the development list that he's only played 18 professional games since being drafted in 2016.

That leaves the infield. We'll start with first base: the hope is that the Nationals find a top first baseman in free agency this year, but for all intents and purposes of this article we have to assume that won't happen. That leaves us with still a decent slate of possibilities, because basically all first base options are also DH options. Andrés Chaparro is someone I'm personally really hoping the front office doesn't decide to shirk, because while his 33-game stint in the majors in 2024 was not quite ideal--his ~10% walk rate in Triple-A over the last couple years fell to 5.5% in the bigs, which hurt his on-base rate, 16 extra-base hits aside--he's still got crazy pop, and letting him rot in Triple-A doesn't do anyone any good at this point. Juan Yepez is still here, too, but he's more on the DH side of things. He's still only 26, and falls into a very similar category as Chaparro. I'd love to see him flash more of that home run power he showed from 2021-22, but his strikeout rate has already made huge strides as it is. Other options currently in the organization--Trey Lipscomb, who is more of a pinch first base option than anything; and Joey Meneses, who's still on the 40-man but whose time as a Washington National has more than likely come to a close.

I want to jump over to shortstop, just to get this out of the way: CJ Abrams will, more than likely, be the Opening Day shortstop. This is probably for the best; one immature mistake that didn't hurt anyone at the end of a long season by a 23-year-old should never be the catalyst for their falling out of favor with the organization. The Nationals, for their part, seemingly have a surfeit of shortstops. Nasim Nuñez is someone whose trajectory within the organization is curious to me. It seems most likely that he'll be playing a lot at Rochester next year; the Nationals took him in the Rule 5 Draft last winter, and there's a reason he stayed on the roster all season. Nuñez's skillset was always clear: he's fast, and he's a strong defender up the middle. I really would have liked to see him get more chances in the majors this past season, though, and it felt like he was never really given a chance to establish himself. I hesitate to call it a lost year for Nuñez's development as a player nonetheless.
Also a backup at shortstop is Ildemaro Vargas. Vargas is a great clubhouse leader, but as the Nationals crawl closer and closer to the hopeful opening of a playoff window, his role on the team's major league roster feels more and more frivolous. Non-tendering Vargas feels like a necessity if the front office wants to show that they're serious moving forward; just because he can kind of hit lefties a little bit and can kind of play left field doesn't mean that he fills a critical void on the roster.
The aforementioned Jack Dunn is someone that could also fill an emergency role at short. I'm unfamiliar with his fielding capabilities, but he started over 80 games at shortstop for Rochester in 2024. Kevin Made looks to be a solid defender, but he's still a little ways away from The Show.

Second and third base are somewhat fluid within the upper levels of the organization at present. Davey Martinez and his staff seemed intent on trying José Tena at third base, but he struggled defensively where he looked much stronger at second. His spot on the roster feels pretty certain, as he's got nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Also a certainty is Luis García Jr., who, for all intents and purposes, was the Nationals' best hitter in 2024. García still needs a little more seasoning, but one would hope the days of him being Davey's scapegoat in postgame press conferences are behind us; that said, Lui could probably do with being allowed to face left-handed pitchers once in a while.
Let's look at the less certain options. Nasim Nuñez saw most of his playing time in the majors this year at second, and the Nationals do seem to expect him to play around the infield in order to justify his roster spot. Trey Lipscomb falls into a similar category, as the 2023 Minor League Gold Glover largely saw time at third in the majors this year, but he plays some second base, too. Darren Baker is a primary second baseman, but I would not expect to see him on the Opening Day roster. Baker's still got more to prove at Rochester before he can hope to become a big league mainstay, as it's unclear whether he can get on base enough at a major league level to justify a roster spot.
The biggest question in this category is where Brady House will start 2025. House has had his ups and downs throughout his minor league tenure, but he's still the team's third-ranked prospect and MLB's 84th overall. It seems more likely than not that April for House will be spent in Rochester, as even a potential torrid Spring Training wouldn't quite offset the .655 OPS he put up in 54 games in an International League where offense was up across the board. Brady's got the capability to hit tanks, and is by no means a bust at this point, but unless Rizzo shocks the world with a surprise promotion come March 27, I imagine the organization will echo these sentiments.

That leaves the pitchers. Right now, the organizational mix for the major league rotation is pretty clear: barring the signing of a perceived ace, MacKenzie Gore will start on Opening Day, and the rotation behind him will be some permutation of DJ Herz, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and Cade Cavalli. Injuries happen, of course, and the possibility that a rotation spot could be open is ever-present, so let's get into the nitty-gritty of the rest. Jackson Rutledge does not feel like a viable long-term option. He follows a very Nationals archetype of guys that throw the ball really hard with eminently hittable fastball shape and not much else. Rutledge feels like a major leaguer, but in the full-time long reliever sort of way, not so much in the swingman sort of way. Brad Lord rocketed up prospect charts this year, and did the same up the minor league hierarchy, finishing the year in Rochester with an expected time of arrival of 2025 per Pipeline. He made 12 starts there, and posted excellent peripherals. All of a sudden, it doesn't seem so unlikely that Lord sneaks his way onto the roster early in the season, even if it's not Opening Day specifically. Cole Henry is on the 40-man, but that's moreso to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. FanGraphs projects him as a strong relief option, but at present the organization seems intent on seeing if they can fashion a starter out of Henry. He hasn't pitched above Double-A since 2022, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him start 2025 at Rochester. Henry could also be a surprise bullpen member. Tyler Stuart could be a back-end candidate, but again, probably not on Opening Day itself. The Nats got him from the Mets in the Jesse Winker trade, but he had uncharacteristic walk rate issues in four starts with Rochester. They'll work with him and hope that was just effects of a small sample size. Don't be surprised to see Stuart up in the bigs around the midway point, even if just for a spot start or two.

As for the one- and two-inning guys out of the pen... well, who knows. A few guys are on the scale of "probably a lock" to "definitely a lock"--Kyle Finnegan, Robert Garcia, Jose A. Ferrer--and then things get a little shakier. Derek Law's presence is likely, as it's hard to imagine someone Davey pitched as much as he did Law won't be tendered a contract. Tanner Rainey's is a little more up in the air, as his long-awaited return from injury was milquetoast at best. Several guys will be up and down from the minors, and more will join on free agent major- and minor-league contracts. For everyone else, we'll just wait and see.

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