Ranking the top 5 free agent starting pitchers for the Washington Nationals to target heading into 2025
Free agency is almost here and the Nationals are in dire need of reinforcements at many positions with starting pitching being no exception. The 2025 FA class is deep in terms of starting pitching, so let's take a look at the best fits for the Nationals.
1. Corbin Burnes
A four-time all-star and 2022 NL Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes is the headline of this year's SP class. Since 2020, the season in which Burnes abandoned his fastball for a cutter that he has dominated the league with, Burnes has posted a 2.88 ERA and a 142 ERA+ to go with four (soon to be five) top 8 finishes in Cy Young voting. Burnes is just 30 years old and still has multiple years left in his prime, so he should be the top target to lead the Nationals pitching staff in 2025.
2. Max Fried
If Corbin Burnes is SP1 in this year's class, then Max Fried is SP1a. Fried has been one of the most consistent starters in the league the past five years and just like Burnes, he is just 30 years old and still in his prime. In fact, Fried has put up better numbers across the past five seasons, but due to some injuries, he falls just behind Burnes on this list. Since 2020, Fried has a 2.81 ERA and a 151 ERA+ to go along with two top 5 finishes in Cy Young voting, including a runner-up finish to Sandy Alcantara in 2022. The Nationals can't go wrong with either Burnes or Fried, but signing Fried would come with the added bonus of taking him away from a division rival in the Atlanta Braves.
3. Jack Flaherty
What a turnaround this season has been for Jack Flaherty. After four consecutive seasons filled with injuries and underperformance, he finally found his groove once again. He signed a one year prove-it deal with the Detroit Tigers last offseason, was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline after an excellent first half, and has done so well that he even started Game 1 of the World Series. From 2020-2023, Flaherty had a 4.42 ERA and a 94 ERA+ with just 59 starts, but in 2024, he had a 3.17 ERA and a 127 ERA+, which is closer to his performance prior to 2020. Flaherty is a bigger risk than Fried or Burnes, so a 2 or 3 year deal would be a safer decision, but at just 29 years old, Flaherty might finally be entering his prime, so he should be a top target for the Nationals.
4. Walker Buehler
On the surface, Buehler does not look like an attractive target for the Nationals, but context is required to understand why they should consider signing him this offseason. From 2018 to 2021, Buehler was one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.82 ERA and a 146 ERA+, including a top 5 finish in Cy Young voting in 2021. He started off 2022 well, but had to undergo Tommy John Surgery during the season, causing him to miss much of the 2022 season and all of 2023. He struggled mightily during the 2024 regular season, but this postseason, particularly in the World Series, Buehler seems to have found success once again. The injury history is certainly a concern, but a 2 or 3 year deal could pay dividends for the Nationals if he returns to form, especially if the price is right.
5. Shane Bieber
Similar to Buehler, Shane Bieber is one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy. Posting a 3.07 ERA and a 140 ERA+ from 2019-2023, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner cemented himself among the game's elite starting pitchers and looked to garner a huge contract in free agency. Unfortunately, an elbow injury forced Bieber to have Tommy John surgery after just two starts in 2024. Tommy John recovery usually takes anywhere from 12 to 15 months, so Bieber may not return to a big league mound until as late as July of 2025. If the Nationals can scoop Bieber up on a multi-year deal at a slightly reduced value, it could end up being one of the better signings in franchise history, especially if Bieber returns to Cy Young form.
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