On Saturday, the Arizona Diamondbacks announced the extension of 23-year-old right-hander Justin Martinez through the 2029 season, with club options for each of his first two years of free agency. Martinez broke out in monstrous fashion in the 2024 campaign, averaging north of 100 MPH on his fastball and using both his four-seam and sinker to strike out nearly 30% of the batters he faced. He faced some command issues, walking batters at an 11.7% rate, but his 60.3% ground ball rate and minuscule 2.8% barrel rate kept batters from doing much damage when they did put the ball in play.
Martinez was so white-hot that when the Diamondbacks traded the struggling Paul Sewald to the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline, manager Torey Lovullo made the call to give Martinez the significant majority of 9th inning appearances (in tied or save situations) for the rest of the season, even over acquisition A.J. Puk who had spent time closing for the playoff Marlins the year prior. Martinez continued to radiate electricity, striking out 34% of the batters he faced down the final two-month stretch of the season and recording eight saves, though the Diamondbacks were left out in the cold come October due to extraordinary circumstances between the Braves and Mets. The team responded by handing him a Spring Training extension that buys out at least all of his arbitration years, with up to $16 million available additionally through club options, seemingly committing to him as the full-time closer going forward.
What does this have to do with the Washington Nationals? It all comes down to 25-year-old left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer. Ferrer, who signed with the team in 2017 for $100,000, projects as a key piece in a somewhat shorthanded Nationals bullpen in 2025, and could end up as the team's future closer in much the same way Martinez did with Arizona. Similar to the Nationals following the Athletics' example of Lawrence Butler, the team should try to replicate the Diamondbacks' recent move.
Ferrer's four-pitch mix is headlined by a sinker with elite movement, and he supplements it with a four-seam fastball and a changeup that are almost indistinguishable to the batter until the last second. All three pitches end up in similar places, but not similar enough to enable hitters to sit on the exact same location. Case in point: Ferrer's 57.3% ground ball rate in 2024 enabled him to post a 3.38 ERA (and 2.70 expected ERA, per Statcast) even despite an average exit velocity in the bottom 5% of Major League pitchers. That also came with a narrow 1.0% barrel rate, which ensured that even balls making it to the outfield weren't leaving the yard--and often ending up in the glove of Gold Glove-caliber center fielder Jacob Young.
Where Ferrer and Martinez differ heavily is their primary modus operandi of getting batters out. Martinez has serious swing-and-miss stuff, throwing flaming 100 MPH fastballs and mixing in splitters and sliders that take off over 10 full ticks of velocity, and features an arsenal that makes him prone to bouts of walk issues. Ferrer embodies an inverse archetype: he still throws heat, averaging 98 MPH on his primary sinker, but his three primary pitches all ending up in such close quarters with each other ends up creating more of a "pitch to contact" philosophy. That's not a bad thing for a guy like Jose, though, especially considering his excellent 4.7% walk rate. Streaks of wildness are rare in Ferrer's case, enabling him to consistently produce outs despite below average whiff and strikeout rates.
Despite differing methods, Martinez and Ferrer reach similar outcomes. After missing about half the 2024 season with a shoulder injury, Ferrer came back and posted an excellent 2.76 FIP (good for a 68 FIP-, where 100 is average and lower is better) over 32 innings and is now geared up for his first major league season. He's already notched the first save of his career, though finding too many more in 2025 might be hard to come by--he's already in tight competition with the returning Kyle Finnegan and the new addition of Jorge López for what will presumably be a slim number of saves (though if you're playing a saves + holds league, he's not a bad late-round guy to round out your bullpen).
Even if that closer dream doesn't come to fruition quite yet, the Nationals could take a hint from Arizona's approach with their young flamethrower. It might be a little early to pull the trigger right now, but if Jose A. Ferrer can navigate the 2025 season and continue generating excellent results, he's a prime candidate for a cheap, team-friendly extension. Martinez's deal was just $19 million over 5 years before the club options, a small price to pay for lockdown late-inning work. If Ferrer is able to provide similar assurance in the DMV, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo might have a strong extension candidate on his hands.