The Athletics are active in free agency, so when will the Nationals strike?

When Jeff Passan reported Thursday morning that the California Athletics of Sacramento (trademark pending) had signed free-agent starter Luis Severino to a three-year contract with $67 million guaranteed, most initial reactions went about the same way:

Sorry, the A's?

It's not as baffling as it probably seemed on the surface level, ultimately. The Athletics have been public about their desire to raise their payroll to about the $100 million mark from the $80 million it was at in 2024, and Severino's signing goes a long way towards that. Walker Buehler was one of their first targets, but he expressed "no interest" in playing in Sacramento. That at the very least showed that the team was in the market to some level for a mid-level starter. His $22 million-plus value feels steep for someone who showed capability to provide decent innings but not much more, until you consider that it was probably what he would've gotten elsewhere plus maybe $10 to $15 million extra as a tax for having to pitch at Sutter Health Field for a few years.

To play devil's advocate for just a moment: Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors explains that this and any future money being paid out in free agency by the A's this offseason isn't out of some form of kindness and philanthropy that has suddenly appeared in the hole where Fisher's heart is supposed to be. The team has incentive to raise payroll: failure to do so could jeopardize the team's status as a revenue-sharing recipient, which would partially negate Fisher's reasoning for still owning the team to begin with.

Still, it's a damning look for the Nationals, who have yet to make a single major league free agent signing. Washington finished 2024 22nd in CBT payroll, over $50 million of which was dead money (through Strasburg's retirement and money retained in trades). Now, players under team control, whether pre- or in arbitration, haven't yet signed 2025 contracts with the team, but almost all of the active roster is pre-arbitration regardless. That being said, at present the Nationals currently sit in the bottom 5 of all CBT payrolls in baseball per Spotrac. When you consider that $35 million of that projected $93 million opening day expenditure is (rightfully) going to someone who physically can no longer pitch a baseball, because he gave more than his body had to give, to a team who publicly forsook him when he tried to retire, the team is on pace to have one of the cheapest active payrolls in baseball in 2025.

That's not a good look for a team that seems to pride itself on how its rebuild has come along, acquiring and developing talents like James Wood, Dylan Crews, MacKenzie Gore, and (if all goes to plan) CJ Abrams. Rebuilding teams do not win long-term without doling out contracts eventually to build around the core a rebuild produces, but the only long-term contract on the roster is catcher Keibert Ruiz, who's been sort of replacement-level at best lately. As Andrew Flax points out, where the 2025 Nationals are projected to end up financially without additional major league reinforcements would place them ahead of just Oakland and Tampa Bay in 2024's economic environment:

Most Nats fans who are in tune with the team's roster situation feel that in order for this offseason to really be perceived as successful, several signings need to be made, preferably near the top of the market for a starter, a reliever or two, and at least one impact bat. 2020 to 2022 for the franchise were characterized by promises to retool and produce a quality product; promises that were never fulfilled, and an on-field product that never materialized. This is a critical junction for the team, and more importantly the Lerner family. Either show that you are willing to spend in free agency, or cut your losses and put the team in the hands of an ownership group that will act where you are too scared to.

Yes, it's only the first week of December, but even as I write this, pitchers are flying off the board. Shane Bieber, who I thought was an excellent target for Washington, returned home to Cleveland, leaving money on the table to stay where he's familiar. Right-hander Clay Holmes is headed to the other side of New York with the Mets, who also recently signed Frankie Montas, where they're going to try Holmes as a starter. The Nationals aren't inexperienced with these toolsy-reliever-turned-starter projects that have been so trendy lately; Trevor Williams was a hot topic in the first half before he went down with injury. The team was never really in the running for Blake Snell, but the Dodgers struck again with a deferral-heavy contract for the 2023 Cy Young Award winner. Matthew Boyd and Yusei Kikuchi are also both gone. The hope is that the Nationals land one of the remaining ace-caliber starters, more likely Fried than Burnes, but if not that, then at least a mid- to upper-range type like Eovaldi, Manaea, or Flaherty. Signing Anthony DeSclafani or Griffin Canning to a reclamation project deal and calling it a day is not going to move the needle. Pitching in the current climate is not cheap, though: Montas got a lot more from the Mets than I think most expected, and convincing a big name to come to Washington with their recent track record is probably going to take a little extra financial incentive than they might get from, say, Boston or San Francisco.

The bottom line is that the Lerners absolutely cannot afford to sit idly by this offseason if the Nationals are going to put out an on-field product that's both compelling and successful. Obviously, there's no real recourse to take if they don't; I can write as many scathing pieces as I want, fans can take to social media for weeks on end, but ticket sales will still roll in looking to see exciting young players like Wood and Crews, and revenue sharing money will still land squarely in the pockets of our friend Mark. Being a fan of a sports team is frustrating like that. But maybe, just maybe, they'll have a little extra incentive now that they're at risk of being one-upped by the man known by many as the cheapest owner in baseball. Everyone in America knows it: hell hath no greater fury than a billionaire nepo baby's ego scorned.