We're about halfway (give or take) into Spring Training 2025, and the first round of reassignments to minor league camp have already taken place, including one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball in Jarlin Susana (though Susana is on the roster for next weekend's Spring Breakout games). For the sake of simplicity, let's say there's five rotation spots to be had on Opening Day. Who, as it stands, are candidates for those?
One can only expect the Opening Day starter will probably be MacKenzie Gore. Gore hasn't had the type of Major League success yet that is particularly becoming of an Opening Day starter, but the expectations that have been placed on him for 2025 are lofty. A top 10 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline as recently as 2021, the 6'2" lefty showed flashes, albeit inconsistent ones, of who he could be in his first campaign with 30+ starts in 2024. His three most used pitches all graded strongly by Pitching+ and Cameron Grove's PitchingBot views his fastball as potentially elite with the right command. Things kind of fell apart in the dog days of summer last season for MacKenzie, though. Gore's no slouch, however, and one can only expect that he's worked his tail off in the offseason and in camp to try to become the best version of his pitching self he can be. The Nationals are likely to recognize this, and I expect Davey Martinez to name him the Opening Day starter sooner or later.
That leaves four spots, and at least one is almost certain to be taken by Trevor Williams. After a 2023 season where he averaged under 5 innings per start and had an ERA closer to 6.00 than it was to 5.00, Williams was one of the shock stories in the first half of 2024 when he excelled through the first two months and 11 starts to the tune of a 2.22 ERA. A right flexor strain cut off what could have been an All-Star season for Trevor, but he continued the momentum in two more starts in September, striking out 12 across 10 innings with just one run, a homer, allowed.
There's some caveats to Williams going forward. Among starting pitchers with at least 60 innings last year, Trevor had far and away the lowest home run per fly ball (HR/FB) ratio in the majors at 4.2%, over two percent lower than the next closest and 7.5 points lower than the median of 11.7% among pitchers that fit the criteria. HR/FB is a statistic that's notoriously difficult for pitchers to control; obviously, pitchers that allow harder contact are more likely to give up home runs on fly balls, but pitchers like Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Garrett Crochet all finished above the median, and they were some of the more valuable starters in MLB last season. A shorthand for this is simply "fly ball luck"--Williams had a lot of things go his way last year, and at least a little regression to the mean is inevitable. From there, Williams' success going forward comes down to just continuing to do everything else he was doing in '24. Even if his home run rate shoots up, he can still be an effective starter if he limits baserunners through other means and strikes guys out at the rate he was last season (7.97 K/9). Regardless, expect a full season of starts for Trevor barring injury; it's hard to imagine why they would have re-signed him to a two-year contract otherwise.
Also likely to break into the rotation is Michael Soroka, who I have written about at length. Eno Sarris recently corroborated this belief in Soroka, who stressed mechanical changes above all else as the recipe for his success as a starter in the future, showing just how good his pitches have looked by the Stuff+ model. There's serious upside there, and the Nationals did sign Soroka as a starter, so there's a rotation spot with his name on it.
That leaves two spots for, realistically, six candidates. Mitchell Parker, if healthy, is probably ticketed for one of those. Parker was scratched from a start on Wednesday, March 5 with neck stiffness, but was able to throw a bullpen on Friday and is set to start on Monday, according to Andrew Golden. Parker didn't quite display the 10-plus K/9 stuff he had flashed in the minor leagues (though he only ever threw 14.1 innings at Rochester) but was a serviceable young backend starter in 2024 and hopes to improve on that in the coming season. A key focus for him this spring has been improving his fielding at the pitcher position, as he committed 5 errors and was worth -4 DRS in the 2024 season.
So then it comes down to the last spot, and it's a close one. Parker's not a lock; he still has options like everyone else on this list, but he's the one I'm most confident we'll see in the rotation. Cade Cavalli is someone I think a lot of Nationals fans want to see in there. Cavalli, still the team's number 8 prospect per MLB Pipeline despite having two years of service time, made 20 starts at Rochester in 2022 to solid success before making his Major League debut on August 26. His 60- to 70-grade curveball got shelled, though he did not allow a home run, for 6 hits and 7 runs over 4 and two-thirds innings (two walks and three hit batters did not help matters). Shoulder issues promptly shut him down for the rest of the year, and he sprained his UCL in his third Spring outing of 2023 which led to Tommy John surgery. A lengthy, 18-month rehab process later, Cavalli is fully cleared and healthy this Spring, but he hasn't pitched in an official capacity yet and he might not at all until the International League season gets underway. The Nats are trying to manage his workload, and I'd be stunned if he found his way onto the Opening Day roster, so that answers that question.
DJ Herz was someone a lot of fans were bullish on, but his three outings this spring have dampened that enthusiasm a bit. Herz was viewed by many prospect evaluators as eventually ticketed for the bullpen, due to his excellent changeup coming out of a relatively low left-handed arm slot but poor overall control. The team gave him a chance to start in 2024, though, and he made the most of that opportunity, striking out 106 over 88.2 innings and punching out 13 Marlins in just his third Major League start, which generated a Tango game score of 87. He kept the walk issues under control; the 9.7% walk rate was high, but manageable compared to the 19.0% he was running in 10 starts at Rochester.
Things haven't been so rosy this spring for DJ. The walk issues have reared their head, spiking to 19.4% in 36 total batters, and he's not supplementing those with strikeouts like he was in the minor leagues. It's certainly been a frustrating spring for Herz, and if this continues, he's likely to start out at Rochester as the team tries to work out whatever issues he's having.
Surprise 2024 All-Star Jake Irvin struggled down the stretch last season and finished with an ERA well above league average. He's never been an electric strikeout pitcher, though his newfound curveball played a large part in getting him to the Midsummer Classic. He's been steady this spring, barring the first inning of play on Sunday March 9th when he got shelled for nearly 40 pitches and 6 runs, with two bombs being hit including by former Nationals organization member Jakson Reetz. Even still, he's been solid enough. More walks than strikeouts, but in the case of Irvin that feels more like a small spring sample than a sign to be worried about his control. One would have to imagine the team will be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and work his way into the rotation.
If it is Irvin, that pushes Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a long relief-slash-sixth starter role. I wrote about him when the team signed him and detailed some of the warning signs for the archetype of pitcher he falls into in Major League Baseball. That's started to come to fruition, as Ogasawara has struggled to keep the ball out of the air with a ground ball rate of just 27.8%. That's led to a 1.93 HR/9 and 6.04 FIP in three appearances so far this spring. "Big Cowboy," as Shinnosuke is nicknamed, needs to saddle up quick or else he'll be barking at a knot trying to work his way into a consistent starting role in the Majors.
The final serious candidate currently in camp is Jackson Rutledge, and I wouldn't put money on him being much more than a middle or long reliever going forward. The 6'7" Rutledge garnered the moniker "Big Nasty" in his freshman year of college from his coach, but the reality is that his stuff is really anything but. His four-seam fastball averages 96, sure, but it features a relatively basic approach angle from poor extension that brings the perceived velocity down to 94. In 2024, he started working in more variations, but his location suffered and he walked 13.7% of the batters he faced at Rochester in 27 starts. Rutledge, who was once the team's no. 2 prospect on Pipeline, hasn't displayed the ability to be an effective Major League pitcher, and his control issues have only worsened this spring, walking 7 of the 36 batters he's faced.
So what does the Opening Day rotation probably look like? Barring a signing, it might look something like this:
1. MacKenzie Gore
2. Jake Irvin
3. Michael Soroka
4. Trevor Williams
5. Mitchell Parker
In this scenario, Cade Cavalli and DJ Herz start the year at Rochester, while Ogasawara and Rutledge head to the bullpen for low leverage or mop-up assignments. There's still time to go before then, though, and a lot can change in a couple weeks. Who do you think will (or should) crack the rotation? Let us know on Twitter @DistrictOnDeck or on my Bluesky @theottspot.bsky.social.