That headline is probably a little sensationalist, but bear with me. Over the last few years, Major League Baseball has seen a boom in young superstars and top prospects earning contract security from their organizations for six, eight, sometimes more than ten years. It goes without saying that the Nationals would probably be well-off extending MacKenzie Gore and/or Dylan Crews, but I'm not going to spend my time discussing it when any argument I could make would probably just be shut down by "well, they're Boras clients." (The team should still inquire, and get them done if they can, but we saw how that went with Soto.)
In June or July, it probably wouldn't have been so far-fetched to imply that CJ Abrams, who is notably not represented by Boras Corp., should be under heavy consideration for a pre-arbitration extension. He had a torrid June, racking up 15 extra-base hits while striking out just 14.4% of the time, the third-best mark of his career in a full month (topped only by his September 2022, where he didn't walk at all, and his July 2023, where he went ballistic and stole 16 bases without being caught), and made the first All-Star game of his career; yet, here we are, approaching the turn of the new year, and we're questioning whether a former top prospect, still just 24 years old, is even worth a look for what would likely be a relatively cheap extension in the first place. How'd we get here?
Well, for one thing, the strikeout rate quickly jumped back up. That, on its own, is not a reason to sound the alarm bells. Plenty of guys in the Major Leagues have strikeout rates similar to or greater than CJ's second-half K rate of 23.5%. But the quality of contact was not there when he was hitting the ball into play. I was a firm believer heading into the 2024 season that if CJ could replicate his plate approach from the second half of 2023, getting ahead of fastballs and tapping into the power his wiry frame could generate, he was a candidate to hit 30 home runs. At the end of April 2024, he had hit 7 - an excellent pace. Then he didn't hit more than 4 in a single month the rest of the year.
Ground balls have also been a serious point of contention with the Nationals offense over the last couple years. Case in point: CJ's ground ball rate was under 40% every month through June, then when the calendar hit July, it was over 40% every month the rest of the year. His line drive rate plummeted from 25 to 27% down to to 8 to 10% month over month. Yes, his fly ball rate jumped, but with a 52% pull rate in July also came a 14% infield popup rate.
Then there's the questions of off-field issues. When CJ was optioned at the end of last season, the issue was not that he was at the casino in the first place, but that he stayed out until 8 in the morning before a day game. If the Nationals are going to finally turn the corner in this rebuild, all hands need to be on deck. Again, he's only 24. Hell, I'm 21 myself. We all have some maturing to do in life. The team, though, needs to be able to count on Abrams going forward or his spot in the lineup and on the roster could quickly come into question.
All that being said, 2025 is going to be a major proving ground in all facets for CJ Abrams. If he doesn't perform, it's unfair to say that he'll never become anything. Aaron Judge didn't debut until he was older than Abrams is going to be this upcoming season. But it's his third full season in the major leagues, and we've already gotten an idea of what he could look like when he's really on - a quality major league shortstop with sneaky 30/30 upside - and what he could look like if it never really materializes - a poor-fielding shortstop worth -13 Statcast fielding runs in 2024 who hits too many ground balls to access his pulled fly ball power. The version of CJ Abrams we see the most in 2025 could be the deciding factor on whether or not an extension is in the cards for him.
What could an Abrams extension look like? It probably wouldn't be too terribly expensive, but all contract extensions in MLB have a risk/reward factor built in to make it appealing for both the team and the player. After his first full season, Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year, $50 million extension with the team, so we can use that as a base. We're looking at what would likely be a proper arbitration extension for Abrams, so let's say six years: all three years of arbitration, and three bought-out years of free agency. With a good enough season one could expect him to be worth somewhere from $2.5 to $4 million in his first year of Major League arbitration, and player salaries almost never decrease in arbitration (by rule, the most a player's salary can lower year-to-year in arbitration is 20 percent). That factors out to probably $20 to $25 million in arbitration projections, and then whatever the two sides determine his first three years of free agency would be worth. All things considered, the Nationals could absolutely afford something in the realm of six years and a total value of $60 to $70 million. The coaching staff needs to work overtime with him to make that a reality, though, and whether or not it will come to fruition remains to be seen. If 2025 isn't the year for CJ Abrams, his future as a National will come into question, at least as far as a potential extension goes.
Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah, happy new year, and a blessed holiday season to all of you. To keep up with my ramblings about the Nationals and baseball as a whole, follow me on Bluesky @theottspot.bsky.social. Stay safe out there.
Most of the statistical and financial information in this article was sourced from FanGraphs Baseball and Spotrac.