The first big bat on the open market in free agency has officially been signed, with the San Francisco Giants signing infielder Willy Adames to a 7-year, $182 million contract. It is the first major splash by new Giants' General Manager Buster Posey, and it is sure to send ripples throughout the league. But what does this signing mean for the Nationals?
Teams that aren't in on Soto aren't waiting around
Many around the league have been pretty steadfast in their notion that players and teams are waiting for the Juan Soto sweepstakes to wrap up before making other moves, however, this move has set a new precedent. The Giants were never really going to be in on Soto, and Buster Posey was eager to make his first move.
The market for Adames was likely beginning to heat up, and the Giants did a great job of getting their big piece before the Soto domino fell. Teams like the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and others were all in on Adames, and the move is likely to have ripple effects on the rest of the free agent infielder market.
Names that could see their markets heat up soon may include Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Gleyber Torres. The infield class didn't have a ton of top-end talent outside of Adames and Bregman, so perhaps this will drive Bregman's value up...
What will Alex Bregman get?
The biggest potential fallout, especially with relation to the Nationals, is about the market for Alex Bregman. Now the unquestioned top infield option on the open market, it will be interesting to see if teams are willing to go higher in a bidding war for Bregman than they would have before, since there are no infielders close to his caliber left with Adames gone.
If Willy Adames got $182 million over 7 years, what would a potential deal for Bregman look like? The AAV for Adames was $26 million, and Spotrac estimates Bregman to command an AAV of $30 million per year, so there's potential Bregman could exceed Adames' deal and be closer to the $200 million mark that him and Scott Boras are reportedly looking for.
With recent rumors that the Nationals are "in the mix" for Pete Alonso, who is likely to command less on a per year basis, perhaps the thought of bringing in Bregman has sailed, unless they would be willing to pay significantly more than what the Astros have offered, which is $156 million over 6 years.
It will be worth keeping an eye on any news coming out of the Winter Meetings in Dallas this week to hopefully get a better idea of what the Nationals are going to do, and what direction they are likely to be heading in for 2025 and beyond.
Do you think the Nationals will make a big splash soon? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.