Flash back to the 2022, where the Washington Nationals selected Elijah Green with the fifth overall out of IMG Academy, where he attended with current Nats outfielder James Wood. At 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, Green has all the physical tools and talent to be a star in a few professional leagues. He's gifted with his advanced speed and strength but he just hasn't quite found his footing in professional baseball just yet.
In his first full season at A Fredericksburg, Green hit .218/.336/.327 with five home runs and 39 RBI. In 303 at-bats, the 19-year-old struck out a whopping150 times. I don't need to do that math for you, as it was an extremely disappointing debut season for the former top draft pick. Green did steal 31 bases, but his low slugging percentage and high strikeout totals were alarming experts around the league.
Before the 2024 season, Green was demoted on many prospect rankings, but was still a top prospect in the Nationals' system. During this past season, he would hit .208/.293./355 with 13 home runs and 54 RBI. He clubbed eight more home runs than last year, but his OPS was still worse than it was in 2023. He struck out 206 times in 414 at-bats. After two seasons with the same tendencies, Green has established himself as a "project" with a cloudy long-term outlook at best.
Green has dropped down to 21st on the Nationals' top-30 prospect rankings, just two years after being drafted 5th overall. This isn't me writing him off for good, but he has much more development than many Nats front office members thought. The strikeout numbers are too high to see him having success at the Major League level. Joey Gallo struck out in 46% of his at-bats this season, and Nats fans want no part of watching another hitter like that in the lineup.
So what's the solution to Green's struggles? Time and patience. He will be only 21-years-old next season and has hopefully many years of baseball in front of him. Sometimes, prospects don't find immediate success in the minor leagues, and maybe Green could be a late-bloomer in the Nationals organization. To put it simply, he's so good at everything else and his other 4 tools are so loud and prominent that he's truly a hit tool away from being a Top 10 prospect in baseball. Joey Meneses, a current minor leaguer in the organization, played over 10 seasons in the minors before making his MLB debut. Meneses wasn't a top-5 pick, but late bloomers can absolutely happen in Major League baseball.
On the other hand, the Nationals packaging Green in a trade to acquire MLB-ready talent is realistic, but if Green were to excel in another organization, we'd all be stuck wondering what if. There is no rush on Green's development due to his struggles, but there is a very good chance the Nats could be stuck with him until he shows any signs of improvement. If 2025 is a repeat of his first two seasons, the questions will get tougher to answer for Elijah Green.