It's time for the Washington Nationals to make a high-level signing this offseason. They inked Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract ahead of the 2011 season. There are rumblings that the Nationals are actively exploring a similar addition.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN has suggested that the Nationals are heavily interested in signing Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman. This is the first high-profile free agent that the Nationals have been this closely linked to this offseason. McDaniel has projected Bregman to earn a six-year, $187 million contract, which would be their largest signing (by tenfold, in terms of total value, excluding Keibert Ruiz's contract extension) since re-upping Stephen Strasburg following his 2019 World Series MVP campaign.
Bregman will be 31 years old entering the 2025 season, and is coming off a relatively down year in which he posted a slash line of .260/.315/.453 over 145 games. Although his 26 home runs were the most he has hit since his career-best 2019 season, his walk rate and OPS last year were the lowest of his career.
Even in one of his worse seasons in 2024, Bregman still delivered solid batted ball data. As shown in his Baseball Savant profile, he was once again near the top of the league in areas such as chase percentage and whiff rate.
Perhaps more troubling, depending on how you view it, Bregman has undergone a significant operation that currently has him sidelined from baseball activity.
Scott Boras said Alex Bregman had a bone chip removed from his elbow and should be back swinging in a few weeks. He’ll be fine for spring training.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 6, 2024
The two-time All-Star is essentially a shoe-in to accrue 4-5 wins above replacement in a given season, assuming he's healthy enough to stay on the field. This is due in part to his above-average defense, which in fact earned him a Gold Glove award for the first time this year.
Bregman is inherently polarizing, considering he spent his early (and most productive) years perhaps benefitting from the Astros' sign stealing scandal. However, his batting data has remained significantly above league average in every year of his career, and there's reason to believe his defense will age well, even if he has to move to second base.
As noted by the Talk Nats blog site, Bregman also shares an interesting connection to Washington. Although he isn't from the area, earlier generations of his family are. His grandfather was involved in the recruitment of Ted Williams to manage the Washington Senators, and his great-grandfather was part of George Preston Marshall's ownership team that moved the Boston Redskins to Washington.
Through the LSU alumni network, Bregman has played a role in the mentorship of outfielder Dylan Crews. He also has offered guidance to pitcher Mitchell Parker, who is from his native state of New Mexico. Not only is that a connection to the Nationals for Bregman, but it also suggests that - contrary to what the trash can saga suggests - he offers leadership value.
As it stands, McDaniel seems to believe that the Astros and Nationals are the frontrunners in the Bregman sweepstakes. Still, two questions remain. Will the Nationals make a shift and sign a player of significance this offseason? And if they do, is Bregman a player they will pursue aggressively, or will they prioritize the first base or outfield market?
The free agent class at third base is particularly shallow. Unless the Nationals sign Bregman, make a trade for a starting third baseman or turn the position over to prospect Brady House quicker than expected, the hot corner will be anchored by Jose Tena to begin 2025. Although this position is generally viewed as less urgent for the Nationals to address due to the presence of House, there certainly isn't a set in stone solution in the immediate future.
Will Bregman's connection to the nation's capital bear fruit, or will the Nationals look elsewhere for their next impact addition to the roster?