If you can think back to the 2022 MLB Draft, you might remember that the Washington Nationals had the #5 overall pick that many people were very excited about. On the night of the draft, the Nationals saw their Beltway rival Baltimore Orioles draft Jackson Holliday with the first pick, who is the older brother of Ethan Holliday, who could be the #1 pick himself in just a few months.
The pick that the Nationals made in 2022 was a risky one, but it was so clear and obvious the true upside that this player had. In fact, the pick the Nationals made was actually a high school teammate of current Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood, who came into the organization just a month after the 2022 draft.
But the Nationals came away with outfielder Elijah Green, who many people thought was potentially the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in the entire draft class. However, almost 3 years later, Green might potentially be on his last chance to prove himself in the organization, and there is a very good chance that the Nationals may have completely blown the pick if he doesn't begin to turn it around soon.
While drafting in baseball is always very difficult, the Nationals notably passed on a number of talented players that have already made their mark in the big league level, such as Zach Neto, who is on his way to his first All-Star selection in 2025, as well as other guys that have just begun to make their way to the big leagues in Dalton Rushing, Cade Horton, and others.
But as of about 10 days ago now, in some news that flew under the radar, Green appears to be headed for a reset, as he was sent to West Palm Beach from High-A Wilmington. The club did not disclose why this was, whether it be for injury or any other reason, but it appears to be a reflection of his performance so far in 2025.
In his professional career, he has 441 strikeouts in 1,019 plate appearances, which translates to a 43.28% strikeout rate, a rate that is completly unheard of for a guy taken that high in the draft. Add on to that rate that his career slash line is just .211/.311/.341 for a .652 OPS, and it's easy to see why Green hasn't really progressed through the system so far in his career.
He was stuck in Low-A Fredericksburg for parts of his first 3 professional seasons, before getting bumped up to High-A Wilmington this year out of pure necessity to see if he could handle another challenge. The issue with Green is that, if he could ever figure out how to make contact, he would be a truly generational prospect, as all of his other tools have been extremely loud.
He has 60 grade power, 70 grade speed, a 60 grade arm, and a 60 grade with his glove, but what's really killing his stock is his 30 grade contact. Yes, you read that correctly, 30. Personally, I don't think I've ever seen a hit tool rated that low, but you can see from the rest of his prospect profile why people like myself who were so high on Green and refuse to give up on him. If he can just figure out how to make more contact, the sky might be the limit, but unfortunately for Green, making contact is a pretty important part of being a professional baseball player.
While I was very hopeful for Green's future after he was taken back in 2022, it appears as if he is probably a guy who needs a major change-of-scenery, as I don't really think the Nationals will be able to fix his swing issues. Perhaps getting his swing truly rebuilt down in West Palm Beach will finally unlock that true 5-tool potential that made him a top pick, but for now, Green is sadly becoming more of an afterthought in the organization.
Do you think Elijah Green will ever figure it out? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.