Victor Robles: The One Who Got Away

There was once a time when Victor Robles was ranked higher than Juan Soto in the Nationals Farm System Rankings. Prior to the 2018 season, Robles was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 6th best prospect in baseball, with Soto not far behind at 29th. Looking at those rankings today, especially as a Nationals fan, it's almost impossible to believe that Robles was seen as the future face of the franchise, but in hindsight, all the tools were there for him to be a key piece of the team's future. It's now 2024, and Robles has finally started to reach his true potential... for the Seattle Mariners.

Victor Robles was signed by the Washington Nationals out of the Dominican Republic in 2013 at just 16 years old. He broke onto the scene in the United States in 2014 and instantly started tearing it up in the minor leagues. By 2017, Robles had been an All-Star at multiple minor league levels, was the top prospect in the Nationals organization, and was even a September call-up to the majors. In 2018, he was ranked as the 6th best prospect in all of baseball and described as having "the makings of becoming a true franchise player for the Nationals, one who has the upside of a perennial All-Star and possibly an MVP candidate." After another brief stint in the majors in 2018, Robles played the entire 2019 season with the big league club, putting up 3.7 fWAR with a 92 wRC+ and elite defensive metrics, en route to a World Series title.

Robles' 2019 season gave Nationals fans a glimpse at his potential, but the underlying numbers showed plenty of cause for concern. He was greatly outperforming his peripheral statistics, his BB% was much lower than it was in the minor leagues, he was striking out 23.3% of the time, and had the lowest average exit velocity in the league at 83.8 mph. After hitting 17 home runs in his first full season in the majors, Robles has yet to hit more than 6 in a single season since and he has also been in the first percentile for average exit velocity for five straight seasons. From 2020 to when he joined the Mariners, Robles had a 70 wRC+, which is the fifth-worst hitter in baseball in that stretch (min. 1,000 PA). Finally, the Nationals had enough. After the many mental mistakes and a 10 wRC+ in 10 games in late May 2024, the Nationals designated Victor Robles for assignment.

Here we are now after the end of the 2024 regular season. To many Nationals fans, Victor Robles may be an afterthought; a top prospect who didn't pan out and was on his way to become a journeyman around the league. But what really happened should worry Nationals fans: he finally tapped into his true potential as soon as he left the Nationals organization. Victor Robles was claimed off of waivers by the Seattle Mariners on June 4th, 2024 and made his debut for the team the next day. From June 5th through the end of the season, Robles had a 154 wRC+ and a 3.2 fWAR in just 77 games. He had a 29.7% hard hit rate and a 6.2% barrel rate, both career highs (min. 100 batted ball events). Whatever adjustments he made in Seattle, they were immediate and drastic and should have the Nationals looking into their organization and development program to see why they couldn't make the same adjustments.

The most damning news to come out of Robles' resurgence may be what he said about the leaving the Nationals. Robles told the Seattle Times: "Leaving the Nationals, he said, was a “weight off my shoulders.” .... he’s discovered a newfound freedom. He’s enjoying baseball for the first time in a long time." He said in an interview with Forbes: '"They’ve let me be me," Robles said of the Mariners. “One of the things they told me here is to just be myself and be nobody else. I think that’s been the key for me playing well."' From what Robles has said and done both on and off the field in Seattle, it is clear that he has always had the ability to be a productive player, but he needed an environment where he could develop his abilities and enjoy being himself. Robles' emergence into a productive player is an indictment on the Nationals development, which is nothing new; but with his comments about being unable to be himself, maybe it's time for a deeper look into the culture of the team and for changes to be made. Otherwise, the Nationals will keep having the same story play out over and over again.