What are the chances Juan Soto actually comes back to the Washington Nationals?

It's time for us to address the elephant in the room. Since he was traded to the San Diego Padres back on August 2nd, 2022, there has always been a glimmer of hope among every fan of the Washington Nationals that Juan Soto would eventually find his way back home. With his newest team, the New York Yankees getting set to play in the World Series beginning on Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, let's evaluate the possibility that Soto actually makes a long-awaited return to the Nation's Capital.

For starters, it's important to remember that the only reason Soto was dealt to San Diego was due to the fact that he turned down a 15-year, $440M contract from the Nationals, and the team legitimately felt as if he was not going to be able to be re-signed before reaching free agency. As much as the trade hurt in the moment and even still stings to this day, it's clear that the Nationals were absolutely correct in their belief that Soto was always going to hit free agency. Soto, of course, is represented by Scott Boras, who is notorious for having his big-ticket players always hitting the open market. Boras has been waiting for Soto, potentially his biggest client ever, to hit free agency and cash in on one of the most anticipated free agencies in MLB history.

We know that Soto's younger brother, Elian, was signed by the Nationals as a 17-year-old international free agent in January of 2023. While this might not ultimately play a major role in Soto's free agency decision, it's clear that the Soto family loves the Nationals organization, as Elian stuck with his commitment to the organization even after they dealt away his older brother. Juan himself was signed as a 16-year-old, and part of the emotions he felt as he was sent to San Diego was the fact that the Nationals were the only organization he had ever known in his MLB career.

Of course, when Soto was dealt, the Nationals' salary situation looked a lot different. At the time, they were still on the hook for a couple more years of Patrick Corbin and his absurd $23M+ AAV, as well as Stephen Strasburg's contract that carries a similar AAV, which the team is still on the hook for through the 2029 season. Mercifully, Corbin's contract will be coming off the books moving forward, freeing up a lot of flexibility for the Nationals as they move into a crucial offseason.

Now, who are the teams who will be in the market for Soto's services this winter? Well, the short answer is that almost every team in the MLB will surely at least inquire to Scott Boras on Soto's price, but only a few teams will likely be considered legitimate threats to secure him for the long-term. In no particular order, you could easily look to teams like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Philadelphia Phillies as the clear front-runners, as all 4 of those teams have owners or ownership groups that will pay any price to improve their teams.

The Yankees should likely be considered the favorite, as during their run to the World Series, Soto has been instrumental to the team's success, and has had many highlight moments that have added to his already extensive postseason legacy. Their ownership, led by Hal Steinbrenner, has shown a willingness to cough up big bucks for top end talent, as they already paid up for Aaron Judge to the tune of $360M and Gerrit Cole for $324M. Of course, they are also still on the hook for the remainder of Giancarlo Stanton's $325M contract that runs through at least 2027, with the Yankees being responsible for another $50M+ before a club option in 2028, which will probably be declined.

The Dodgers and Mets both have money galore, with the Dodgers ownership group consistently showing a willingness to shell out big time bucks, as evidenced by the 20-year, $700M contract handed out to Shohei Ohtani last year being the biggest proof. Mets owner Steve Cohen has also shown a complete willingness to pay any price to secure top talent for his club, as the Mets had MLB's highest payroll in 2024, $8M above the aforementioned Yankees.

Could the Philadelphia Phillies be in play for Soto? I truly believe it's not completely out of the question, as they have shown that they will pay any price to secure top talent, and have already constructed Washington Nationals North with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber. What's wrong with adding one more big-time former National? Well, many things, but I'm going to just pretend that the Phillies wouldn't add yet another 9-figure contract to their payroll, joining Harper, Turner, Nick Castellanos, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola.

Finally, as to why the Nationals could make sense for Soto? It all boils down to familiarity and the overall outlook of the organization. When the Yankees came to DC near the end of August, the franchise used the series as an audition and showcase of all their young and upcoming talent, with an electric series that featured the debut of MLB's #1 Prospect Dylan Crews, joining a Nats lineup with a load of young talent like James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Luis Garcia Jr. The Nationals wound up taking 2/3 games from the Bronx Bombers, and the park was packed for all 3 games of the series.

Needless to say, if the Nationals want any, and I do mean ANY chance of signing Juan Soto again in free agency this winter, the bottom line is that the Lerner family will need to pay up. No more deferred money, no more hometown discounts, they will have to flat out show Soto and Boras that they want him to retire and go to Cooperstown one day with the Curly W on his hat, and doing this would certainly be able to increase attendance in the club overall. While I don't know that they would be willing to do this, if the team wants to finally move back towards being a legitimate competitive club, this would be a great first step that would provide a much needed jolt back into a fanbase that is desperate for a big-time move in free agency. Only time will tell if Soto ends up back in DC, but until he signs his name on the dotted line for another club, I'm not going to count out our beloved Nationals.

If I had to make an unbiased and honest prediction about where Juan Soto signs this winter, I would say that he truly was born to wear pinstripes, and will be a New York Yankee for the rest of his career. Truly, I would give the Nationals a 2% chance to bring him home, and it's safely a non-zero chance. But I'll say it again, until he signs his name on the dotted line for another club, I'm not going to count out our beloved Nationals.

Do you think Juan Soto will re-sign with the Nationals? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.