Andrew Alvarez showed promise in his first major league start this past Monday. In a season where the Nationals pitching staff has pitched to an abysmal 5.33 ERA, Alvarez could be a potential rotation option for the short and long-term future.
Alvarez, age 26, is old for a rookie. Since being drafted in the 12th round of the 2021 draft, he has excelled at every level of the minor leagues and has earned his spot on the major league roster. In four minor league seasons, he has a career ERA of 3.84. He also has been durable. In an era when teams are concerned about pitch counts and innings limits, Alvarez has pitched at least 120 innings in the last three seasons. This season, in 25 starts with Rochester, he has pitched to a 4.10 ERA and recorded 114 strikeouts in 123 innings. Alvarez does not have the swing and miss, overwhelming stuff that top prospects Travis Sykora, who is now slated for Tommy John surgery, and Jarlin Susana have, but he is durable and gets outs. For a rebuilding team like the Nationals, that is crucially important. For the rest of the season and next year, Alvarez can serve as an affordable bridge to these highly touted starters, and he is young enough to still develop into a quality major league player.
In his first start, Alvarez was impressive, but not overwhelming. In five shutout innings, he struck out four, walked two, and gave up a hit. His performance was against the light-hitting Marlins, but five scoreless innings against any major league team should be applauded.
Alvarez did not overwhelm with his velocity. His average fastball velocity was 91.7 miles per hour, which is below the 25th percentile for major league pitchers. He relied on his effective combination of sliders and curveballs. Alvarez threw his slider 33 percent of the time and his curveball 26 percent of the time. In his start, he was able to locate both pitches well below the zone, and he was successful with both pitches. His slider had a swing and miss percentage of 40 percent, and his curveball had a swing and miss percentage of 20 percent. Alvarez did not generate a swing and a miss on any of his other pitches. As he continues to rely on these effective pitches and throw strikes, he could have a major role in the Nationals’ rotation.
Alvarez is scheduled to start this upcoming Sunday against the Chicago Cubs. He can hopefully build on his promising first start and become a major contributor in the Nationals’ rotation.