James Wood’s start to the season was extraordinary. Before the All-Star break, the left fielder had 24 home runs, 69 runs batted in and a .915 on-base plus slugging percentage. He joined a short list of great former Nats to hit 20 home runs in a season before turning 23 and began to cement himself as an ascendant talent in the game. He was living up to his status as a key acquisition for the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade.
The second half of the season, though, has not gone well for Wood. Since the All-Star break, the lean slugger only has two home runs and a paltry .629 OPS. After joining elite company in the first half of the season, Wood is now threatening the record for strikeouts in a season. All players, even of Wood’s caliber, will go through growing pains and experience the league adjusting to their skill set, but there are concerning trends for Wood that explain his second-half woe.
Wood’s biggest problem has always been his high strikeout rate. For context, an average strikeout rate is about 20 percent. Wood, in his rookie season, struck out 28.9 percent of the time, and this season, he has been striking out 31 percent of the time. Going back to his development in the minor leagues, Wood had a 26 percent strikeout rate.
Strikeouts have always been a part of Wood’s game. That does not inherently mean he will not be a successful big leaguer. Per Baseball Savant data, Wood succeeded in the first half of the season while having an above-average strikeout rate of 27.5 percent. His prodigious walk rate, bat speed and bat-to-ball skills all can overcome his propensity to strike out at above-average rates. In the second half, though, his strikeout rate ballooned to 40.6 percent in July and 36.8 percent in August. Wood cannot utilize his other talents when he fails to put the ball in play more than a third of the time. Good things happen when players make contact, no matter how hard a ball is hit, and right now, Wood is not making contact.
Wood’s bat path could explain Wood’s recent cold stretch. Throughout the season, Wood’s average attack angle has crept higher and higher. Average attack angle measures the direction the center of the bat is travelling vertically when it makes contact with the ball. The league average is 10 degrees, and a higher angle is more likely to produce a fly ball, while a lower angle is more likely to produce a ground ball. Last year, Wood’s average attack angle was around eight or nine degrees, and to begin the season, his attack angle remained around that mark. But, each month, Wood’s attack angle increased, and in July, his attack angle peaked at 13 degrees.
Wood’s increase in attack angle correlates with his increase in strikeout rate. In an effort to hit the ball in the air more, Wood seems to be producing an uppercut swing that is prone to swing and miss and strikeouts. His swing and miss rate on pitches in the zone has jumped from 18.2 percent in April to 29.4 percent in July. Simply, he is missing more pitches in the strike zone that he used to hit.
Granted, there are other problems with Wood’s current approach. He is walking less. He is also chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone. Wood cannot just make one change and return to his All-Star caliber form. Still, by returning to his more even attack angle, Wood can hopefully cut down on his strikeouts and continue his development.
The good news for Wood, though, is that he already seems to be righting the ship. This past month, Wood’s average attack angle decreased from 13 degrees to 12 degrees, and correspondingly, his strikeout rate and in-zone swing and miss rate both also decreased. While games like the one he had on Monday, where he added 3 more strikeouts might not have you believe so, he still does even slightly appear to be on the right track to becoming the player he was in the first half of the season.