The new Nationals leadership does care how hard pitchers throw ball four.
At the beginning of the 2024 season, then Nationals President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo put up signs in Nationals spring training telling pitchers he did not care about how hard pitchers threw ball four. In an era where analytically inclined coaches tell players to chase velocity, Rizzo was emphasizing low walk rates and control over simply throwing balls hard.
Recent moves by Nationals leadership indicate that they do not agree with Rizzo’s philosophy. Paul Toboni and Anirudh Kilambi are modern, analytical baseball thinkers who value velocity.
The biggest indicator of this difference in philosophy is the Nationals' acquisition of prospect Luis Perales from the Boston Red Sox. On the 20-80 prospect rating scale, where 50 is average and each increment of 10 represents one standard deviation better or worse than average, Perales has a 70-grade fastball but 40-grade control. He throws triple digits and has stuff that will play well in the major leagues, but his control is a major concern. In exchange for Perales, the Nationals sent Jake Bennett, a lefty with more control but less electrifying stuff.
Toboni and the rest of the Nationals front office are prioritizing pitchers like Perales. They believe that they can mold high-velocity arms into more polished pitchers instead of just throwers. The pitchers they are targeting have high walk rates, but Toboni still sees them as valuable because of the high ceiling elite velocity gives to these players.
While we do not yet know what other pitchers that fit this mold are likely to come into the organization during this offseason and beyond, part of what makes trade speculation so fun and unique is the wondering about what the Nationals could get in a return. Obviously, with MacKenzie Gore still being one of the most likely players to be dealt this offseason, perhaps the Nationals could grab another powerful arm or two to help bolster their contention window for 2027 and beyond.
Rizzo’s philosophy makes sense. Velocity leads to injuries and walks, which lead to runs. Pitchers like Perales need to learn how to limit walks if they ever want to be successful in professional baseball. However, control is something that players can learn. While velocity is common now, the elite velocity that players like Perales have is still rare and extraordinarily valuable. Toboni and the Nationals’ new front office recognize this.