As we continue to get closer and closer to the 2025 season starting and we get used to having America's pastime back on a daily basis, there are a ton of fun exercises for us fans to predict. Whether it be World Series Champions, MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc., it will be fun to see how everyone's predictions fare over the course of the season.
In a recent piece put out by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com, he predicted 10 Breakout Candidates in 2025 across MLB, and gave some quick justification on why he believes that each player could be in line for a season that puts them on the national radar. For once, the Nationals were given some legitimate legs to stand on, as Harrigan was quick to point out a pair of second-year Nats players. Let's see who he chose from the Nats and how likely each of his picks are to break out in 2025.
DJ Herz
Here was Harrigan's justification for picking the young lefty: "The Nationals’ promising young core is notably skewed toward position players, but Herz could help balance the scales a bit if he’s able to build on his solid rookie season. Although his ERA+ was below average at 97, some of his other performance indicators were far stronger, including a 3.26 expected ERA, a 3.77 SIERA, a 3.71 FIP and a 27.7% strikeout rate. Herz’s four-seam fastball was particularly impressive, generating a +9 run value with the third-highest whiff rate (30.5%) among starting pitchers (min. 300 swings on four-seamers) behind Ryan Pepiot and Garrett Crochet. Although the Nationals re-signed Trevor Williams and added Michael Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara in free agency this offseason, Herz should get a chance to retain his starting spot in 2025."
While I do not disagree with this pick and would argue that Herz has a higher ceiling than the vast majority of the Nationals' young starters, it is not a guarantee that he will be in the starting rotation. With MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin being all but guaranteed to retain their spots and free agent additions in Soroka and Ogasawara both being told that the plan is for them to be in the MLB rotation, there is theoretically only one remaining spot. Additionally, Williams was told upon re-signing with the Nationals that he would be starting as well, meaning that Herz and Mitchell Parker, another 2024 rookie lefty, could find themselves on the outside looking in. That would be my only argument against a breakout of Herz, but again I am a firm believer in his long-term potential and would love to see him take that next step in 2025.
James Wood
This one should not be a surprise, and here is the reasoning for Wood's inclusion: "A highly touted prospect who peaked at No. 3 overall on MLB Pipeline’s list of the Top 100 prospects prior to his 2024 debut, Wood largely lived up to the hype as a rookie, even though it took some time for him to find his footing. While Wood hit the ball with authority throughout the season (52.0% hard-hit rate), he wasn’t able to take full advantage of that skill early on. The 6-foot-7 slugger posted a .560 OPS over his first 21 games, combining elevated strikeout (36.4%) and ground-ball (64.6%) rates with a miniscule pull rate (22.9%). However, it didn’t take him long to address those issues. Over his final 58 games, Wood made dramatic improvements in all three of those departments and also bumped his walk rate to 12.9%, leading to a .288/.383/.479 slash in that span. Still just 22 years old, the sky is the limit for Wood in 2025."
Wood's inclusion on this list should be no surprise to anyone, as his finish to the 2024 season should set him up for a true breakout in 2025. As the Nationals prospect heading into last year with maybe the highest ceiling and track record of performance in the minors, the fact that Wood was able to come to the big leagues and not appear overmatched by any means should come as no surprise. He is a true unicorn on the baseball field given his size, advanced plate approach, and true 5-tool abilities, and once he begins to pull the ball more consistently...look out. Out of every young player on the Nationals, I am truly all-in on Wood's future success and breakout, and he should bat 3rd or 4th in the order for the entirety of this season.
Which National do you think is in line for 2025 breakout season? As always, please let me know on X, @DCBerk.